475 FXUS65 KSLC 122051 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 251 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A prolonged stretch of hot and dry conditions continues into next week. Chances for isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms return from Monday onward. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday...Temperatures will continue to warm across the region through Sunday and Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the western US. The latest NBM forecasts for HeatRisk show several pockets of major (i.e. heat affecting anyone without adequate cooling) by Monday, most widespread over lower Washington County. St George has a 60% chance of reaching/exceeding 110F for the first time yet this season Monday, while overnight `lows` will only reach around 80F. Thus, have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for that area. Future shifts will need to monitor whether the warning should be expanded in area to include Zion NP and expanded in time to include Sunday and/or Tuesday. Zion Canyon is currently forecasted to see lows near 70 which drops it out of the major HeatRisk, but will need to watch closely in case the NBM is overestimating those low temperatures. A few valleys of central and northern Utah are also flirting with major HeatRisk Monday/Tuesday, but not widespread enough in impactful areas to merit headline consideration at this time. Other than hot temperatures, we will continue to see afternoon cumulus buildups over the southern Utah mountains and Uintas, with an isolated thunderstorm here and there. Chances will slowly trend upward each day heading into early next week as moisture slightly increases. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday), issued 420 AM MDT... Ridging aloft gradually drifts west by Monday with its western periphery hanging off the coast of CA. With this flow pattern, modest moisture return will begin with PWATs generally ranging from around 0.5-0.7" across the majority of UT and southwest WY. This will be enough moisture to spark isolated showers and thunderstorms across our typical higher terrain spots each afternoon through the long term due to weak synoptic forcing in play. With heights building over the forecast area, hot temperatures are expected areawide throughout the duration of the long term with our valley locations seeing temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s each day. Additionally, lower Washington county will see temperatures nearing and perhaps exceeding 110F each day. Be sure to drink plenty of water, limit time in the sun, and dress appropriately! Nearing the end of the long term, troughing / a cutoff low looks to develop off the west coast which will serve to increase moisture return across the region. Guidance regarding this solution is somewhat iffy at best and would support more widespread shower and thunderstorm development beginning across southern UT as early as Friday. This would be a welcomed solution as we have remained quite dry as of late and bears watching as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the KSLC terminal as clear skies and diurnally driven wind patterns prevail. Northwesterly upvalley flows will remain in place through around 03-04Z, then revert to a southerly downvalley flow thereafter. VFR conditions prevail through the next 30 hours. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Isolated high-based showers across portions of southern Utah will bring a low chance of gusty outflows through about 02Z before skies clear through the overnight hours. Winds will become largely light and terrain driven as high pressure builds into the area. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure building into the western US will bring hot and mostly dry conditions to Utah through the beginning of next week. Afternoon relative humidities in the single digits can be expected once again across central/southern Utah valleys, along with poor overnight recoveries. Despite the dry airmass, cumulus buildups and very isolated high-based showers will be possible over the higher terrain of southern Utah as well as the high Uintas, with a threat of brief, localized gusty outflow winds. Elsewhere, isolated pockets of critical fire weather conditions are possible in the afternoons where daily breezes are stronger. Modest midlevel moisture is expected to spread into the area by Tuesday, bringing an increased threat of high-based showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to remain generally isolated to widely scattered for much of the week, but the threat of gusty outflow winds and dry lightning will exist. Deeper moisture looks to work its way into the area by next weekend, increasing the potential for wetting rain, though there is still uncertainty in how robust the moisture stream will be. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Monday for UTZ123. WY...None. && $$ Van Cleave/Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity