521 FXUS65 KSLC 102038 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 238 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Northwesterly flow will maintain a warm and dry airmass across the region through Monday. High pressure will then bring a warming trend heading into midweek. Beginning Wednesday, an increase in moisture will bring a chance for thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday...Northwesterly flow continues across the region this afternoon. Strong high pressure will gradually shift eastward into the Southwest through the short term forecast period. This will bring gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions to the Beehive State. Little impact from sensible weather, except to those vulnerable to heat issues...by Monday afternoon, many locations across the Wasatch Front will surge into the 90s once again. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday), Issued 412 AM MDT... At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast on Tuesday, deterministic and ensemble solutions are in good agreement with their respective depictions of a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the Western Great Basin, with the expectation that the ridge will crest overhead on Wednesday. As a result, expect a continued warming trend through Wednesday, when temperatures will rebound to 5F-10F above normal for mid-August, before leveling off and falling slowly through the rest of the week. There is good consensus among the model solution space showing another Northern Rockies trough grazing northern Utah late Wednesday into Thursday. It appears there will be just enough large scale ascent and meager moisture associated with this trough to aid in the development of some high-based convection, with the main risk being gusty/erratic microburst wind and isolated lightning Wednesday afternoon and evening across most of the area. Heading towards the Thursday-Friday timeframe, general model consensus suggests that a longwave trough will develop over the western CONUS, aiding in the establishment of broad S-SW flow across Utah/SW Wyoming during this period. Ensemble PWAT anomalies push into the slightly above normal range for the time of year in the late Thursday-Saturday timeframe, suggesting a slight glancing brush of monsoonal moisture working into the area. It`s too early to say if this moisture will manifest itself in the form of extensive mid- level cloudiness with a few showers, or a few organized thunderstorms capable of localized, briefly heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the KSLC terminal through the period, with mostly clear skies other than a few passing high clouds. Generally light northwesterly breezes continue through roughly 04-05z, becoming predominantly southeasterly thereafter. A weak northerly pressure gradient in place may lead to periods of variable winds during the early morning hours as it interacts with local drainage winds. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all regional terminals through the remainder of the period. Skies remain generally clear outside of some scattered high clouds across southern Utah this afternoon, but are expected to clear overnight into Monday morning. Winds are expected to remain generally light and terrain-driven for all terminals through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER...Northwesterly flow continues across the region this afternoon. Locally critical fire weather conditions are being reported across eastern Utah, from roughly SR-6 southward to the Grand Staircase. While northwesterly winds will gradually decrease Monday, localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible in a similar area. Expect gradual warming as high pressure moves across the region through midweek. By Tuesday night, recoveries will once again fall into the poor range, with very dry daytime humidities. As mid- level moisture increases across southern Utah Wednesday into Thursday, lightning after an extended dry period will increase in probability. Thunderstorms will trend wetter Friday...if the mid- level moisture can remain in place. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Whitlam/DeSmet For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity