471 FXUS65 KSLC 042107 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 307 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Afternoon convection is expected across northern Utah today, with potential for isolated severe wind and hail. Across portions of southern and western Utah, dry and modestly breezy conditions yield areas of critical fire weather conditions. High pressure returns from the weekend onward. && .DISCUSSION...Forecast for the day largely seems to be evolving as anticipated. The forecast region remains placed within a southwesterly flow regime, with a trough advancing towards the forecast area through the PacNW. Faster flow associated with this trough is resulting in an enhancement to shear across northern Utah, with SPC mesoanalysis analyzing widespread effective shear values around 35 to 50 kts. Ongoing daytime heating is leading to destabilization, and while dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s in northern Utah is actually relatively moist for this time of year, boundary layer remains well mixed enough for DCAPE values around 900 to 1400 J/kg. As a result, the northern third of the forecast area remains placed in a categorical Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. In addition to frequent lightning, the primary threats would be potential for hail up to an inch or so and wind gusts up to or in excess of 58 mph. Initial convection would likely tend to yield more of a combined hail/wind threat, with subsequent propagation of outflow dominated clusters increasing the wind threat. Cumulus field this afternoon continues to become further agitated, and area radars are picking up on strengthening convection especially near the UT/NV border, with some slower maturing isolated convection elsewhere across the northern portions of the area. Models have handled this well so far, and suggest we`ll especially see the activity near the UT/NV border mature in the favorable environment, with clusters and associated outflows then propagating eastward in time. Currently, most likely timing of stronger wind related impacts along the populated urban corridor of the Wasatch Front is 5pm to 8pm time frame. Models then support the outflow/storms quickly continuing east/northeastward through the terrain and eventually into/through Uinta County, Wyoming. While not everywhere will necessarily see the strong winds, given the amount of ongoing outdoor events, those hosting/attending should keep an eye on how things evolve over the next few hours. Aside from where models show decent consensus on the aforementioned organized convective potential, elsewhere the more isolated to scattered convection that continues to mature will also pose a threat of lightning, gusty outflow winds, and small hail. Models show potential for a few lingering thundershowers following the stronger push, but largely suggest coverage/strength trends downward, especially after 10pm or so. Across southern Utah, drier air is resulting in much more minimal precipitation chances Friday. Conversely, moderately strong southwesterly flow in combination with the dry conditions is resulting in localized areas of critical fire weather conditions, especially across portions of the West Desert, southwest Utah, and southern Utah. A retrograding low off the California coast will initially help keep a ridge extending through the Desert Southwest and towards the Four Corners region a bit shunted/flattened away. As such, will only see a slight upward trend in temperatures through the weekend, and with little moisture remaining, minimal precipitation chances. From Monday on through the week the ridge strengthens and continues to build into the area. Increasingly anomalous H7 temps associated with the ridge will then drive a more marked warmup pushing afternoon highs to around 7-15F above climatological normal. While it appears forecast temps nudged down slightly in comparison to prior forecasts, it still is sufficient for increasing HeatRisk, and any nudge back upwards depending on how the forecast trends could yield headlines later on. && .AVIATION...KSLC... Flow should generally remain out of the northwest this afternoon with the exception of localized outflow winds from thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening from around 21-01z. Strong to severe storms are possible with gusts in excess of 58mph and marginally severe hail. Around 03z, southeasterly flow should settle in before becoming northwesterly again tomorrow around 15z. .AVIATION...REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING... Thunderstorms are possible across all of our northern UT TAF sites this afternoon from around 21z through 01z. Strong to severe gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with these storms. Additionally, IFR conditions may be possible. Following 01-02z, VFR conditions will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER...Moisture has continued to scour out across areas of western and southern Utah today, with broad scale weather pattern supporting modestly breezy southwesterly winds. As a result, some localized areas of critical fire weather conditions are noted. Winds will gradually decrease Friday evening into the overnight, helping to abate these conditions. Across the northern half to third of Utah, moisture remains in sufficient quantities to help develop isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are favorable as well for a few stronger storms capable of frequent lightning, gusty erratic outflow winds, small hail, and brief moderate rain. These gusty erratic outflow winds, potentially in excess of 50 mph, may propagate further away from area thunderstorms as well. High pressure becomes the dominant forecast feature this weekend on into the upcoming week. This will result in a return of widespread dry conditions and a warming trend. While widespread gusty conditions aren`t expected at this time, any locally windier spots will see potential for elevated fire weather conditions given the low daytime humidity and poor overnight recoveries. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-495-497- 498. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Warthen LONG TERM...Warthen AVIATION...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Warthen For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity