107 FXUS64 KEWX 110702 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 202 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Key Messages: - 10% chance of isolated showers late this afternoon and early evening across the western Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau - Near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon across the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and portions of the Hill Country At midnight a weak cold front was located across the northern Hill Country. Areas of fog will be possible early this morning across the Coastal Plains, south of the front. The weak front will gradually slide south into the region today, with a farther southward push through eastern areas. By late afternoon the front will be located roughly from the Coastal Plains to near San Antonio and northwest into the southern Edwards Plateau. Behind the front, drier air will filter into the area. A thin cumulus field may develop near and southwest of the front this afternoon, and in fact a few CAMs are now generating isolated showers late this afternoon and early evening across the western Hill Country and southern Edwards, mainly around Edwards and Kerr counties, where just enough low level moisture and convergence resides. We have included a very low chance (10%) of showers across this area late afternoon and evening. The weak front is forecast to wash out Saturday with a breezy southerly wind developing, especially west of the I-35 corridor. Low afternoon reactive humidity values 15-25%, winds gusting to 20-30 mph, and dry to extremely dry fuels per the Texas A&M Forest Service will combine to produce near-critical fire weather conditions across Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and portions of the Hill Country. High temperatures today and Saturday are forecast to be slightly cooler than yesterday, but still above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 A persistent mid-level ridging pattern will keep dry weather around next week. In fact, GFS and ECMWF time-height plots suggest that relative humidity values at 700mb aloft might never reach 50 percent throughout all of next week, which is a testament to the lack of good deep-layer moisture advection into our area. Southerly flow ahead of trough well to our north will bring a low-level thermal ridge across South-Central Texas to start the week. Highs above 90F are likely across the entirety of South Central Texas, with highs above 100F in the forecast for parts of the Rio Grande Plains. Models remain in good consensus that a decent meridional pressure gradient Sunday will result in breezy conditions with peak gusts around 30 to 35 mph. Breezy winds could continue into Monday, though Sunday looks to be the breeziest of the days in the forecast period. This could lead to some fire weather concerns continuing into Monday, especially for areas along the Rio Grande which have not received much rain lately. A weak cold front then pushes through our area north to south Monday night into Tuesday morning. Model cross sections indicate this will be a shallow front without much support aloft to help generate rainfall. Northerly winds behind the front will help bring slightly cooler weather for Tuesday with highs decreasing about 5 to 10 degrees relative to Monday with possibly a more noticeable drop in the Rio Grande Plains. The front weakens and rebounds northward as southerly flow returns Wednesday, resulting in a warming trend with the warmer pre-frontal temperatures returning by as soon as Thursday. The front and the subtropical jet should help bring some intermittent clouds throughout next week, mostly in the form of high cirrus, but otherwise models have soured on the prospects for rain within the long-term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period for most locations. The exception is a period of low stratus and fog, producing IFR to LIFR conditions, between 08Z-14Z across the Coastal Plains. There is also a very low chance (10-20%) of isolated SHRA/-TSRA between 20Z-02Z across the southern Edwards Plateau, near ECU-ERV, along a weak frontal boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 55 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 56 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 86 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 64 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 56 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 57 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 55 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 54 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 91 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...Tran Aviation...76