313
FXUS64 KEWX 240635
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1235 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog is likely again and will probably spread across most
  inland areas of South Central TX.

- Unseasonably warm weather continues through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1217 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Dense fog is advancing inland, and some amount of fog is expected
across nearly all of the forecast area later tonight. It`s not clear
how much of the higher terrain or the Rio Grande Plains will be
impacted, so the Dense Fog Advisory was only posted to match up with
our Coastal Plains neighbors. to the SE. Thus an inland expansion is
likely later in the predawn hours. Broad high pressure over TX will
continue the warm temperatures the next couple days while a weak mid
level low continues to maintain high humidities through the short
term, with near record highs continuing both for the afternoon max
and the morning min. Models continue to minimize the potential for
rain, but a brief episode of drizzle cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1217 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The strong upper level ridge responsible for our abnormally warm
weather continues to hold mid to late week, so we expect to see
continued warm and dry weather with highs in the upper 70s and low
80s, overnight lows close to 60, and dew points in the upper 50s to
60s... all unseasonably high values for late December.

Persistent southerly flow will continue shaping a pattern of low
clouds and some fog developing overnight with decent clearing late
morning or early afternoon. Towards the end of the week, the ridge
starts to lose it`s higher amplitude over TX. This should allow
warmer temperatures aloft being built up over drier West Texas and
northern Mexico to move over our area, leading to highs in the low
to mid 80s Friday and Saturday. Forecast values are near near daily
record high territory and potentially the warmest portion of this
current warm stretch.

Model consensus across multiple runs continue to signal a strong
trough moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this
weekend. This high amplitude pattern will lead to a cold front
arriving Sunday, perhaps with a low chance for rain as it encounters
the shallow humid air over our area. There is still ample
uncertainty with the strength of the front, but the latest consensus
suggests much more seasonably cool temperatures could be in store
early next week. We could even see some first-freezes being reached
for a few more areas Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

In contrast to last night where elevated wind speeds remained in
play, winds are much lighter early this morning, so confidence in
widespread dense fog has increased. The latest 00Z HREF has
between a 40-70% chance from the Coastal Plains, through the I-35
Corridor of less than 1/2 mile visibility, so prevailing from
groups have been utilized to account for the increased confidence
in fog formation. Ceilings of less than 200 feet are also
increasingly likely to start the day on Christmas Eve. A return to
VFR is expected after 19/20Z at all sites.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1257 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Record High Temperatures

                  12-24         12-25   12-26      12-27
Austin Bergstrom  82 (1977/1964) 91 (1955) 85 (2016)      82 (2024)
Austin Camp Mabry 82 (1964/1955) 90 (1955) 84 (2016)      79 (2021/1954)
San Antonio       83 (1964)      90 (1955) 83 (2016/2008) 82 (2005)
Del Rio           89 (1955)      87 (1955) 80 (2024)      84 (2005)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  63  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  79  62  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     79  61  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            78  60  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  61  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  61  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             79  60  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        80  61  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  62  80  62 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  63  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           79  64  80  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ193-205-
207>209-220>225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...MMM