600
FXUS64 KLUB 230549
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1149 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are expected each
   afternoon this week.

 - Record breaking temperatures possible each afternoon through
   Saturday.

 - Potential cooler temperatures arrive this early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Ive said it once and I will say it again, unseasonably warm, you
know what it`s just down right hot, temperatures will persist
Tuesday across the West Texas region. The FA will remain under the
influence of the stubborn upper level ridge and associated 590 dam
high pressure system parked over the Lone Star State. We will begin
to see a subtle shift in the center of the high, centering itself
over the ArkLaTex region by Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to a
very small decrease in thickness values, nonetheless; unseasonably
high height values for this time of year combined with warm
downsloping winds will aid in temperatures in the 70s and 80s once
again. In fact, another chance for record breaking heat is on tap
for KLBB with the forecasted high Tuesday of 82 degrees, on track to
smash the previous record of 80 degrees set back in 1964 and 1955.
Additionally, there is a chance we can break the record high for the
month of December (85 degrees set Monday, 12/22/2025) again, but
winds not expected to become as breezy as Monday may limit this
possibility. Warm and quiet conditions will continue overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with lows a bit warmer than
previous, in the 40s and 50s, thanks to potential stratus to our
south advancing northward early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Dry, quiet, and unseasonably warm conditions remain the theme of the
extended forecast package as the FA remains beneath the expansive
upper level ridge. Flow aloft will remain southwesterly to zonal
through much of the period, which in turn should result in fairly
quiet weather through the weekend. As for temperatures through the
remainder of the holiday week look to be just as unbearable as they
are in the short term package. Geopotential heights well above
normal for December standards will remain in place as the 588 dam H5
ridge remains parked over the southern half of the CONUS. At the
surface, winds will remain out of the southwest as surface troughing
to our north prevails. These downsloping winds will support WAA into
the region, with 850 mb around 17C to 20C suggest highs in the mid
to upper 70s and mid 50s. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are
shaping up to be the two warmest days of the week, especially
Christmas Day thanks to a lee cyclone digging south into the Texas
Panhandle, allowing for pressure gradient increases across the
region. Wind speeds around 15 to 25 mph look likely and the NBM
seems to be a bit two low so will need to make some adjustments to
these speeds in the coming days if models continue to trend
breezier. There is light at the end of the tunnel, with ensembles
continuing to hint at at least cooler conditions towards the end of
the year as an amplified upper level trough translating through the
Great Lakes regions swings a front through the region Saturday
afternoon. As for precipitation late this weekend, compared to
previous model runs, most deterministic models absorb the shortwave
trough over western CONUS into the main flow of an additional, more
amplified trough over the coast of Baja Mexico by early next week.
Any precipitation associated with the front will likely remain to
our south and east, therefore the prime window for us will be if and
when any moisture out ahead of the trough to our west creeps into
the region. However, NBM seems a bit too widespread with PoPs
considering the current model evolution of this system, keeping much
of the moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
South to southwest winds mainly at or below 11 kts can be expected
as well.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...07