953
FXUS64 KLUB 220535
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

 - Cooler on Monday, then warming back to well above normal
   temperatures for the rest of the week.

 - A few strong thunderstorms may develop Monday night especially
   over the Rolling Plains.

 - Thunderstorm chances return each evening from Tuesday through
   Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Relatively flat upper level ridging remains firmly in place over
southwest TX late Sunday evening, with another active night of
convection ongoing over southwest KS and northern OK. Low level
moisture will quickly return to our area overnight with
strengthening southerly flow, with a heavily modified outflow-
enhanced cold front on track to enter the southern TX Panhandle
and adjacent Rolling Plains through the early morning hours. Low
level cloud cover is expected to increase in coverage especially
off the Caprock on Monday morning as this boundary continues
advancing southward, with winds remaining easterly through most
of the rest of the day. As a result, highs on Monday are expected
to be notably cooler compared to Sunday, but there is considerable
spread among short range models regarding precisely how much
cloud cover develops, how quickly it dissipates, and thus how much
warming occurs. At this point, we favor the cooler end of
guidance for highs over northern zones, with temperatures likely
only warming into the 80s over the TX Panhandle through the
afternoon. A deepening surface trough over the Permian Basin may
be enough to keep temperatures quite a bit warmer farther south,
but it will still be cooler compared to Sunday with highs reaching
into the 90s (perhaps a few locations in the Rolling Plains
reaching near 100) over our southern zones.

Surface-based convection appears unlikely over our area for most of
Monday given the generally cooler airmass and substantial capping.
Some light rain showers may nevertheless develop mainly over the
southern Panhandle through the day within a zone of modest
isentropic lift behind the front/boundary. Monday evening into
Monday night, a strengthening low level jet could easily support
isolated or scattered thunderstorm development near and after
sunset, especially off the Caprock. It is uncertain how widespread
this activity might be or how long into the night it could persist,
but large to extreme elevated instability and healthy bulk shear
could support a few severe storms capable mainly of large hail and
heavy rain late Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

By Tuesday the upper ridge is progged to build a bit farther
northward with modest height rises over West TX bringing a return of
well above average temperatures to the entire region. The associated
midlevel subsidence will also likely prevent most if not all
thunderstorm development Tuesday, with an outside chance that a
couple of storms clip the TX Panhandle late Tuesday evening. On
Wednesday, a broadening surface trough over most of the Caprock
could be sufficient to kick off a few high-based thunderstorms
over the South Plains, but the continued close proximity of
ridging aloft looks likely to keep the potential for widespread
convection relatively low. For the second half of the week, model
consensus indicates that the upper ridge will flatten and retreat
southward as cyclonic flow aloft deepens over the west coast.
This evolution would result in flow aloft over our area remaining
more zonal, which casts some additional doubt on storm chances
late in the week. Ensembles still do indicate some potential for
high terrain activity to make it to our region during the evening
hours through the end of the week, but confidence in this
occurring is lower compared to prior forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Good chance of seeing MVFR stratus overtake CDS and PVW behind a
cold front arriving from 08Z-10Z on gusty NE winds. Guidance is
looking more optimistic for LBB, so will favor VFR with scattered
low clouds toward dawn. Some SHRA and TS could threaten CDS at any
point during the day, but low confidence precludes an explicit
mention.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93