243
FXUS64 KLUB 082315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Subtropical ridging will continue to slowly slosh eastward over the
Rocky Mountains throughout the next 24 hours. A narrow moist axis
advecting from the northeastern Pacific Ocean and arcing over the
Four Corners region was evident on recent water-vapor imagery. Flow
is slightly difluent along the eastern periphery of the 250 mb jet
streak congruent with this plume of moisture, and actually generated
some very shallow, high-based virga showers earlier across the far
southern Texas Panhandle. Breezy, southwesterly winds will remain
intact the rest of the day before backing to the south tonight as
weak cyclogenesis continues in the TX PH. Hot temperatures are
expected tomorrow, and were raised slightly from the NBM to align
with the recent MOS guidance. A weakening, mid-level cold front will
pass overhead tomorrow, and may generate shallow virga showers as
observed today. However, a very dry and well-mixed boundary-layer
will prevent any of the rain from reaching the surface. Winds will
also slosh southwestward by the afternoon hours as the lee cyclone
meanders over the TX PH tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Persistent weather is expected to continue through the next several
days as the stubborn upper level ridge prevails over the region
through the end of the week. Therefore, expect dry conditions and
warm temperatures in the 90s to continue through Saturday. Models
still suggest a weak front stalling across our northern zones
Thursday morning, before quickly washing out by the afternoon. No
major changes will be noted with this weak front with lack of
moisture and thickness values remaining the same.

Changes to the forecast may be on the horizon come Sunday, as an
upper level trough across the Great Lakes region swings a cold front
across the FA. Ensemble guidance remains in agreement with this
solution with daytime highs forecasted in the 70s by the start of
next week. As for precipitation, this front looks to remain dry with
silent PoPs being maintained.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR and generally light southwest winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...19