085 FXUS64 KLUB 050520 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1220 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter storm with several inches of wet snow is expected on Saturday for portions of the Caprock. - Colder, blustery and wet Saturday for all of the area. - Quiet weather returns on Sunday with temperatures rising well above normal by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 Long overdue precip remains on the immediate horizon thanks to a slow-moving upper low to our west and rich moisture already in place. Regional PWATs were running 150-200 percent of normal this afternoon and this will be put to work overnight and through Saturday as deeper ascent overspreads our area. The current band of light rain and showers across eastern NM and the western South Plains should remain largely unchanged through sunset as an upper jet loiters overhead while aiding in weak, but persistent isentropic ascent. This will change tonight as the upper low descends over northern Chihuahua and spreads increasingly diffluent upper flow over the area. Accompanying this transition will be a shortwave trough most evident around H7 that ejects ahead of the low and spurs a healthy round of elevated convection with some storms mainly in the southern Rolling Plains where elevated CAPEs around 1000 J/kg are progged. Some subsidence is expected behind this shortwave by early Saturday morning over the eastern half of the forecast area; however, remaining areas are likely to see a prolonged round of deep saturated ascent unfold along the nose of an easterly TROWAL emerging north of the mid-level low tracking just north of I20. Combined with CAA on blustery NNE winds Saturday morning, this pattern fits the bill for heavy snow potential mainly over our far western and northern zones where precip is likely to linger the longest in the deformation zone of the upper low while the higher elevation in these areas also fosters more favorable temps for snow and accumulations. Elsewhere including the Lubbock area, precip should have little trouble changing over to all snow by early afternoon despite ground and 2m temps still holding above freezing until later in the day as the sun angle falls and removes the subtle amount of insolation through the stratus. By this time the heaviest precip rates may begin tapering as the upper low begins peeling away, although some higher res models are keen on enhancing snow banding within an expanding layer of elevated Fn ascent. Temp-wise, NBM`s mild values tomorrow were traded for much lower guidance with temps expected to fall through the day on CAA. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 Ongoing snowfall is set to continue across the majority of the area through the evening hours on Saturday, but will begin rapidly decreasing in both coverage and intensity after sunset as center of the mid/upper level trough quickly translates to our east. Still, with precipitation expected to be all snow across the majority of the area by this point, some additional moderate accumulations are likely through about midnight, especially over portions of Briscoe and Floyd Counties where northerly upslope flow along the edge of the Caprock Escarpment is maximized. Otherwise, we expect snow to become more scattered in nature after midnight with precipitation expected to end entirely by sunrise on Sunday. With clearing skies from west to east, temperatures will likely plummet into the teens and lower 20s by Sunday morning on the Caprock, with relatively cool daytime highs in the low to mid 50s on Sunday afternoon given the expected lingering snowpack despite nearly full sunshine. On Monday, a flat upper ridge axis will begin to build overhead, marking the beginning of a dry and much warmer weather pattern for the upcoming week. Weak surface flow and perhaps a bit of lingering snow cover will keep temperatures near or just below normal on Monday before a return of southwesterly surface flow and continued midlevel height rises brings highs well above normal Tuesday into Wednesday. Towards the end of the week, a quick- moving shortwave trough over the north-central CONUS will likely send a cool front southward through our region, but with upper ridging still positioned overhead and to our west, temperatures look likely to remain above normal with dry conditions favored through the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 IFR CIG/VIS is expected to persist at all sites through much of the TAF period. Conditions may drop to LIFR at KPVW and KLBB by this afternoon in snow and blowing snow. Breezy NW winds gusting up to 35 kts are possible at all sites before diminishing later this evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>024- 027>029-033-034. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ025-026-030>032-035>037-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...19