085
FXUS64 KLUB 050520
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Winter storm with several inches of wet snow is expected on
   Saturday for portions of the Caprock.

 - Colder, blustery and wet Saturday for all of the area.

 - Quiet weather returns on Sunday with temperatures rising well
   above normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Long overdue precip remains on the immediate horizon thanks to a
slow-moving upper low to our west and rich moisture already in
place. Regional PWATs were running 150-200 percent of normal this
afternoon and this will be put to work overnight and through
Saturday as deeper ascent overspreads our area. The current band of
light rain and showers across eastern NM and the western South
Plains should remain largely unchanged through sunset as an upper
jet loiters overhead while aiding in weak, but persistent isentropic
ascent. This will change tonight as the upper low descends over
northern Chihuahua and spreads increasingly diffluent upper flow
over the area. Accompanying this transition will be a shortwave
trough most evident around H7 that ejects ahead of the low and spurs
a healthy round of elevated convection with some storms mainly in
the southern Rolling Plains where elevated CAPEs around 1000 J/kg
are progged. Some subsidence is expected behind this shortwave by
early Saturday morning over the eastern half of the forecast area;
however, remaining areas are likely to see a prolonged round of deep
saturated ascent unfold along the nose of an easterly TROWAL
emerging north of the mid-level low tracking just north of I20.
Combined with CAA on blustery NNE winds Saturday morning, this
pattern fits the bill for heavy snow potential mainly over our far
western and northern zones where precip is likely to linger the
longest in the deformation zone of the upper low while the higher
elevation in these areas also fosters more favorable temps for snow
and accumulations. Elsewhere including the Lubbock area, precip
should have little trouble changing over to all snow by early
afternoon despite ground and 2m temps still holding above freezing
until later in the day as the sun angle falls and removes the subtle
amount of insolation through the stratus. By this time the heaviest
precip rates may begin tapering as the upper low begins peeling
away, although some higher res models are keen on enhancing snow
banding within an expanding layer of elevated Fn ascent. Temp-wise,
NBM`s mild values tomorrow were traded for much lower guidance with
temps expected to fall through the day on CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Ongoing snowfall is set to continue across the majority of the
area through the evening hours on Saturday, but will begin rapidly
decreasing in both coverage and intensity after sunset as center
of the mid/upper level trough quickly translates to our east.
Still, with precipitation expected to be all snow across the
majority of the area by this point, some additional moderate
accumulations are likely through about midnight, especially over
portions of Briscoe and Floyd Counties where northerly upslope
flow along the edge of the Caprock Escarpment is maximized.
Otherwise, we expect snow to become more scattered in nature after
midnight with precipitation expected to end entirely by sunrise
on Sunday. With clearing skies from west to east, temperatures
will likely plummet into the teens and lower 20s by Sunday morning
on the Caprock, with relatively cool daytime highs in the low to
mid 50s on Sunday afternoon given the expected lingering snowpack
despite nearly full sunshine.

On Monday, a flat upper ridge axis will begin to build overhead,
marking the beginning of a dry and much warmer weather pattern for
the upcoming week. Weak surface flow and perhaps a bit of
lingering snow cover will keep temperatures near or just below
normal on Monday before a return of southwesterly surface flow and
continued midlevel height rises brings highs well above normal
Tuesday into Wednesday. Towards the end of the week, a quick-
moving shortwave trough over the north-central CONUS will likely
send a cool front southward through our region, but with upper
ridging still positioned overhead and to our west, temperatures
look likely to remain above normal with dry conditions favored
through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

IFR CIG/VIS is expected to persist at all sites through much of
the TAF period. Conditions may drop to LIFR at KPVW and KLBB by
this afternoon in snow and blowing snow. Breezy NW winds gusting
up to 35 kts are possible at all sites before diminishing later
this evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>024-
027>029-033-034.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
Sunday for TXZ025-026-030>032-035>037-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...19