454
FXUS64 KLUB 171124
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
524 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue
   through the middle of next week.

 - Record warmth is possible Friday and especially Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, a southern-stream, shortwave trough was
pivoting across the southern Great Plains, with a corridor of
confluent flow advecting over W TX and downstream of an intense
shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface,
a lee cyclone was located near CDS, with a trough extending to the
southwest to GNC. Winds have transitioned to the north following the
southeastward movement of this surface trough, with the eastern
Rolling Plains remaining within the moist sector where winds prevail
from the south. This surface trough will continue to slosh towards
the southeast through the predawn hours, with light, northerly winds
expected to veer southwestward by late Wednesday morning. While the
CWA remains on the backside of the departing shortwave trough
pivoting over W TX, the typical geopotential height rises have been
offset by the emergence of the shortwave trough over the Pacific
Northwest. Therefore, high temperatures will peak in the upper 60s
and lower 70s once again Wednesday afternoon, with southwesterly
winds becoming breezy by late-afternoon in response to the leeward
pressure falls generated by cyclogenesis in the northern Great
Plains. The breeze will persist into Wednesday night, with Thursday
morning lows about 7-10 degrees warmer than the prior morning.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

After a brief stint of mild weather Thursday, record warmth is
possible Friday and especially Saturday at CDS and LBB. At the
beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature an
intense, negatively-tilting shortwave trough digging into the
central and northern Great Plains. Brisk, northwesterly winds are
expected prior to sunrise, as a pre-frontal surface trough moves
through W TX. By sunrise, a strong cold front, with its southward
progression reinforced by an intense, mid-level jetlet approaching
80 kt rounding the base of the trough over KS, will move through the
CWA. Winds were raised to align with the NBM 75th percentile, as the
passage of the trough will generate a strong, isallobaric response
as the polar surface high rotates southward across the northern
Great Plains. Northeasterly winds around 20 mph, with gusts up to 30
mph, are expected Thursday before quickly diminishing following the
cessation of vertical mixing. High temperatures Thursday were also
cooled a few degrees, and aligned with the recent MOS guidance, to
account for the modifying CAA post-FROPA. The cP airmass will settle
into the region Thursday night, with the 1022-1024 mb post-frontal
high rotating into central N TX by Friday morning.

A restoration to quasi-zonal flow is forecast across the Lower 48
Friday through the weekend, allowing the northern periphery of a
subtropical ridge to eclipse the southern Great Plains. Global NWP
guidance continues to indicate geopotential heights near 580 dam
over W TX, with 850 mb temperatures ranging from 17-21 deg C by
Saturday afternoon. The warm-up will begin Friday, with breezy,
southwesterly winds expected beneath the rising geopotential
heights. Highs Friday will be close to record values, primarily at
LBB, with much better prospects for record high temperatures at both
CDS and LBB Saturday. Winds will be veered westward Saturday, which
will allow the full effects of adiabatic compression to be realized
and boost highs to nearly 30 degrees above seasonal norms at CDS and
LBB. It appears that the previous record highs at CDS and LBB will
be smashed Saturday afternoon. Please reference the table below for
the temperature records and forecast for Friday and Saturday. A weak
cold front originating from a shortwave trough digging into the
Great Lakes region is then forecast to move through W TX Sunday, and
will knock highs back into the middle 60s for most locales, which is
still 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. Dry and warm conditions
are forecast through the middle of next week. PoPs remain NIL.
____________________________________________

Temperature records at LBB and CDS for Friday, December 19th; and
Saturday, December 20th, 2025:

    Lubbock Airport          Childress Airport
   Forecast  Record          Forecast   Record
Fri   75     76 (1921)          69      75 (2013)
Sat   84     80 (1921)          80      78 (2010)
____________________________________________

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR will prevail through this TAF period. Northwest winds this
morning will turn southwesterly by early afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30