289 FXUS64 KCRP 092220 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 520 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 511 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Another hot day with near heat advisory conditions today and tomorrow. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide Tuesday through the weekend. - A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday - A Marginal to a Slight risk for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday/Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 As a mid-level high pressure system to our south retreats, a mid- level low moves in over the Southern Plains and lingers for much of the week before lifting northward towards the end of this week. This pattern will promote a general troughing pattern over our CWA. Combined with limited upper level support, several mid-level disturbances, and abundant moisture (PWATs ~1.80" according to GEFS plumes mean) may result in some storms becoming strong to severe through the first half of the week as shear is progged to be around 30-35 knots. There`s a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) across northern and western portions of South Texas for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and this expands to cover all of S. TX for Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards. Also on Wednesday there`s a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive rainfall across northern/western half of our CWA. Thursday, there`s a Slight Excessive rainfall risk (level 2 out of 4) across the eastern half of the region with the remainder of the region under a Marginal risk. Flash flooding risk is expected to increase around the middle of the week as soils in some spots become saturated, leading to runoff. Rain chances during the first portion of the work week will generally be low (20-30%), increasing to around a 40-60% chance mid- week, then drops to (20-45%) the remainder of the week and into early next week. Temperatures today and tomorrow will range from 90-105 degrees with heat indices generally 105-110. Some locations across the Coastal Plains to the Brush Country may get up to 115 degrees but is expected to be brief and am not confident that a Heat Advisory will be necessary. The remainder of the week will feature surface highs 90-100 degrees with heat indices of around 110 or less. Regardless, it is summer and hot (and humid)! Please practice heat safety by staying cool, hydrated, and limiting sun exposure. Help others to && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle except from 05-15z where MVFR ceilings are likely to develop. Winds will increase once again tomorrow around 14/15z with a low (30-45%) chance of thunderstorms at VCT from 17-00z tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 106 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze will continue through this week with periods of Gentle (BF 3). Rain chances return Tuesday and continue through the week and into next week with the chance for daily showers and thunderstorms ranging from 30 to 60 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 94 79 93 / 0 20 20 40 Victoria 75 94 76 91 / 0 40 30 60 Laredo 79 103 79 98 / 10 10 20 40 Alice 77 98 77 96 / 0 10 20 40 Rockport 81 92 81 90 / 0 30 30 50 Cotulla 79 101 78 96 / 20 10 30 60 Kingsville 78 96 79 96 / 0 10 20 40 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 90 / 0 20 30 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...JCP/84