602
FXUS64 KCRP 230608
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1208 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

 - Low-end (10-20%) rain chances this afternoon with minimal rainfall

 - Warm Christmas week

 - Cold front for the last weekend of the year resulting in below-
normal temps in the upcoming week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

The fog threat continues to be the main headache for motorists and
mariners alike. While visibility reductions from sea fog have been
present since sunset, tonight`s sea fog is thinner than in previous
nights as water temperatures sensors show most water sensors warming
into the upper 60s today, reducing the difference between water temp
and dewpoint temp (which persists in the low 70s). A Dense Fog
Advisory (including inland bays/nearshore waters, barrier islands,
and coastal zones) will continue through the morning hours. Fog will
burn off by the afternoon with continued nightly chances for fog
through Sunday. Afternoon highs and lows will continue to be 10-15F
above normal.

Ensembles have trended colder for high temps after the next big cold
front moves through on Sunday. Highs to for the last Monday and
Tuesday of 2025 are looking to drop 15-20F with region-wide 60s for
highs and lows in the 40s. While yesterday there was still quite the
spread of the strength of this cold front, the latest model runs
have been trending cooler (both Euro ensemble and GEFS). As with any
forecast 7-8 days out, rainfall is still question as to how
widespread will accumulate, but the presence of a cold front does
introduce low end chances across South Texas (20-30% chance) on
Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Fog and low ceilings will once again reduce flight categories to
IFR/LIFR conditions during the overnight hours. Flight conditions
should improve tomorrow morning after 15-17z. Moderate winds could
develop tomorrow afternoon, however, if they do they should weaken
to lighter levels after 00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Expect light to gentle southeasterly winds with 2-4 seas through
Friday night, with winds increasing to gentle to moderate strength
(BF 3-4) Saturday. A cold front Sunday morning will result in winds
being more out of the northeast at a strong to near-gale strength
(BF 6-7) with seas increasing to 5-7 ft by Monday morning. Aside
from some streamer showers this afternoon (10-20% chance of rain),
the next best chance comes with the cold front though confidence is
low on exact chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Light winds, relative humidity values remaining above 40%, and
Energy Release Components in the 25-49th percentile will keep the
fire risk limited into the weekend. This afternoon, there are low
chances (10-20%) of isolated showers with trace accumulations. The
remainder of the week remains warm and dry. A cold front could move
through on Sunday with min RH values near 30% on Monday and 20-30%
on Tuesday. Low end rain chances on Sunday will be scattered in
coverage (20-30% chances).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  66  79  64 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          81  63  81  62 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            85  66  83  66 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             83  63  82  62 /  20  10   0   0
Rockport          76  64  75  64 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           84  64  83  63 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        82  63  81  63 /  20  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  68  75  67 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ231-232-236-237-
     250-255.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...JCP/84