017
FXUS64 KCRP 281128
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
628 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of South Texas Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Moderate to major risk of heat will continue across South Texas,
  with localized extreme heat risk possible across portions of the
  Brush Country.

- Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible
  across the northwestern Brush Country.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A mid-level high centered over New Mexico will maintain hot and
mostly dry conditions through the weekend. Afternoon highs will
generally range from the mid 90s near the coast to around 105
degrees across the western Brush Country, with heat index values
commonly between 105 and 112 degrees, increasing towards 115 later
in the week. Prompting a Heat Advisory for Tuesday afternoon/evening
with more advisories likely to follow this week. HeatRisk will
remain moderate to major across much of South Texas, with localized
extreme values possible where the hottest temperatures persist.

A subtle pattern change is possible early next week as a mid-level
trough extends southwestward from northeast of our region toward the
Victoria Crossroads, along the eastern periphery of the ridge. This
may provide enough lift and moisture for isolated showers and
thunderstorms, with rain chances currently around 15-20%. Otherwise,
no significant change in temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Seeing a few low clouds in the VCT to ALI corridor tonight, but
only brief periods of MVFR CIGS are expected. Chances for low
clouds looks a bit better tonight. Have included mainly SCT
conditions for now except at ALI, but may need to add tempo BKN
groups later.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A generally gentle to moderate onshore flow will persist through the
period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) conditions during the evening
and overnight hours. Seas will remain around 2-4 feet. Dry
conditions are expected through the forecast period, with
probabilities near zero.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across
the northwestern Brush Country during the latter half of the week,
though confidence has decreased somewhat as the lowest RH values may
not overlap with the stronger winds. Minimum RH values will fall
into the mid 20% range, while ERC values remain near the 50th to
60th percentile. RFTI values increase to around 2 Friday, indicating
a limited elevated fire weather threat when combined with the other
factors. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  79  96  79 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          96  77  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           104  79 105  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             99  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          89  82  91  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          104  79 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  78  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       92  82  92  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ231-232-250.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...PH/83