871
FXUS64 KCRP 090328
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1028 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Waves are remaining elevated over the offshore waters this
evening. Buoy 19 and 20 have been reporting waves around 6 feet
still with 9-10 second swells during the last couple of hours.
Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory was extended through 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Key Messages:
- Coastal flooding continues through the work week
- High risk of rip currents in effect

The main concern in the short term continues to be our coastal
concerns. Increased swells from Major Hurricane Milton have been
arriving along the Middle Texas coast. Buoy 20 is currently
reporting 7 foot seas and swell period of 10s. Gerling-Hanson
plots suggest these swells will linger for the next 2-3 days.
Therefore, we will continue with our Coastal Flood Advisory and
High Risk of Rip Currents through Thursday evening. Inundation
from 1-1.5` is expected during times of high tide. There is a
good chance that both products are extended through at least the
end of the work week.

Otherwise, water vapor imagery reveals much drier air working into
the region as ridging builds across the Desert Southwest. The 18Z
KCRP sounding recorded a 1.06" PWAT which is well below normal.
A thin layer of moisture trapped beneath the dry air may promote a
brief period of patchy fog across the Coastal Plains. However,
confidence is low. This drier air and a weak boundary moving
through on Wednesday will allow for lows to drop into the upper
50s to low 60s the next couple of nights. Another warm day is in
store tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place through the long term
forecast. This will promote warm and dry conditions through the
next week. A weak shortwave will cut into the eastern periphery of
the ridge. Not expecting any excitement with this other than an
increase in upper level cloud cover across the Victoria
Crossroads. By early next week, an upper trough across the Great
Lakes will send a cold front south across the state. It`s too
early to say if it will make it all the way here but our chances
look good.

Our coastal flooding and rip current concerns persist as we wrap
up the work week. Swells look to remain around 10s which will be
sufficient enough to drive water up our coast. PETSS suggests
inundation around 1-1.5 feet during times of high tide through at
least Friday. Conditions look to gradually improve over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Not much change from the previous issuance. VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period across all sites with light and
variable winds. Expect a low chance for some MVFR visibilities at
site ALI this morning around daybreak.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Seas have increased over the offshore waters this afternoon with
buoy 20 reporting 7 foot seas. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory
is now in effect through this evening as seas are expected to
gradually subside over the next several hours. Additional periods
of elevated seas are possible through Friday as increased swells
from Hurricane Milton spread across the Gulf. Otherwise, a weak to
moderate east-northeasterly flow will persist through the end of
the work week. Onshore finally returns as we head into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  67  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          95  57  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            95  68  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             95  65  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          93  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           97  67  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  67  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  75  85  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...NP/92