178
FXUS64 KFWD 132330
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected through Thursday
  with highs mainly in the 70s and 80s.

- Rain chances return to the region Friday through next weekend
  and a few storms could be strong or severe each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Very toasty and windy day across North and Central Texas with
highs reaching the mid 80s east to upper 90s west. DFW even tied
the daily record high of 93 last set in 1972 and 1936. No
locations in our cwa reached the 100 degree mark, but several
places in our western counties hit 98 degrees. Winds were quite
gusty as well with peak gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range, with the
highest report being 44 mph at DFW Airport. Winds have already
begun subsiding this evening and will be letting the Wind Advisory
expire as scheduled at 7pm. No changes were made to previous
forecast as everything remains on track.

Shamburger

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

Warm and windy conditions will prevail today ahead of a cold front
currently positioned near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Near-record
warmth is expected this afternoon with temperatures rising into
the 90s for most locations along and west of the I-35 corridor.
There is a 10-20% chance that a couple locations across the Big
Country inch toward the century mark this afternoon marking their
first 100F reading of the year. Expect south-southwesterly winds
at 15-25 mph gusting to 35-40 mph at times through this evening. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for much of North and Central Texas
through 7PM. Dry and windy conditions will lead to pockets of
elevated fire weather west of I-35 this afternoon, but recent
rainfall and greening vegetation should preclude a more
significant threat for wildfire growth and spread. But still do
remain cautious, and avoid any activities that could lead to new
fire attacks in finer, grassy fuels.

Breezy southwest winds will persist into the overnight veering
more westerly ahead of the aforementioned cold front expected to
move toward the Red River early Monday morning, reaching the I-20
corridor by late morning, and then finally pushing into Central
Texas by mid-afternoon Monday. Breezy north winds behind the
front will keep high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s north
of the I-20 corridor Monday afternoon with temperatures peaking
near 90 degrees across parts of Central Texas ahead of the front.
With little appreciable moisture, expect this frontal passage to
remain dry as it moves through our forecast area.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 100 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/
/Tuesday and Beyond/

Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will materialize region-wide
Tuesday with widespread afternoon highs in the 70s. However, a
building mid/upper ridge aloft and the return of south flow will
quickly begin a warm-up Wednesday into the latter half of the work
week. Expect highs in the 80s Wednesday afternoon nearing 90
degrees once again west of I-35 Thursday afternoon. We will need
to monitor for an increasing fire weather threat later in the week
as breezy south winds overlap with a relatively dry and
abnormally-warm airmass and drying fine fuels west of I-35
Wednesday-Friday. Rain chances will return to the forecast over
the weekend and into early next week as broad troughing settles
over the western CONUS placing North and Central Texas beneath
active southwest mid/upper-level flow. There are signals in the
latest guidance that ingredients could come together for some
severe weather potential in the Southern Plains over the weekend.
More precise timing and location details will come with time, so
make sure to keep up with the forecast through the week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just some
scattered cirrus clouds expected. There is a low chance for MVFR
cigs to impact ACT around 12Z Monday morning, but confidence is
far too low to include mention in TAF. Gusty south winds to 30
knots early this evening will decrease overnight, but a 45kt LLJ
will continue through the night and create LLWS conditions at
Metroplex airports. Winds will decrease somewhat on Monday
morning, then veer to southwest and northwest from midday into the
afternoon due to a fropa.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  84  56  77  56 /   0   0   5   0   0
Waco                61  90  59  77  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               61  81  53  73  50 /   0   0   5   0   0
Denton              61  80  49  75  51 /   0   0   5   0   0
McKinney            62  81  51  75  51 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dallas              64  87  58  77  56 /   0   0   5   0   0
Terrell             61  84  53  75  53 /   0   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           62  87  57  78  55 /   0   0   5   0   0
Temple              60  90  58  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       61  83  51  79  52 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>134-141>145-156>159.

&&

$$