677
FXUS64 KHGX 090425
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Drier air is working its way in from the east as satellite derived
PW values indicate values around 0.5-0.6" nudging in along and east
of the I-45 corridor. PW values remain around 1.0" near Matagorda
Bay, which is where a stationary frontal boundary currently
sits...but the front will push completely through Southeast Texas by
the early evening hours. Although a cold front has technically
pushed through parts of Southeast Texas, it still feels rather warm
out there...what`s the deal?! With the drier air moving in and 850mb
temperatures generally around the 90th percentile (especially for
our far western areas - e.g. west of the Brazos River), we`ll still
see temperatures top out mainly in the upper 80s with a few spots in
the low 90s. During the overnight hours is when we`ll feel the REAL
benefits of this FROPA :)

With winds becoming light after sunset combined with clear skies and
dew points primarily in the 40s, we`ll see some efficient
radiational cooling overnight. Low temperatures tonight will drop
down mainly into the low to upper 50s for most inland locations,
except for around the Houston metro area and along the coast where
low temperatures will fall in the low to upper 60s. With surface
high pressure moving in closer late tonight into Wednesday, we can
expect a copy-pasta forecast with high temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s and low temperatures in the 50s/60s. Technically,
Wednesday may be warmer by about 1-2F, but close enough for copy-
pasta. Drier air with climatologically warm 850mb temperatures this
time of the year usually leads to these 30+F diurnal temperature
ranges.

Batiste/Howard

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Although surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes/NE into
Southeast Texas will be transitioning a bit further ese as we head
into the weekend, ridging and subsidence aloft will keep rain
chances low to nil. Other than just a modest increase in dewpoints,
ambient wx should remain about status quo.

Mid level ridging should amplify across the Rockies and troffiness
deepens across the eastern US late in the weekend late in the weekend
into early next week. Such a pattern lends support for a 1028-1035mb
high dropping south thru the central CONUS to bring a more legitimate
cold front into the region about a week from now. Moisture availability
still looks too sparse ahead of the front in regards to rain
chances...but we won`t argue with some cooler wx.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

NE winds overnight (mainly around 5 knots or less inland, closer to
10 knots coast). NE winds tomorrow increasing to up to around 10 knots
during the day. Back down to mainly light/variable winds tomorrow
evening/night. SKC.  42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Longer period 4-6ft swell in association with Hurricane Milton in
the south central Gulf will persist into the overnight hours so will
extend the caution flags in the offshore waters. Otherwise 10-17kt
northeast winds will prevail for the next few days. As we escape the
more favorable swell window and the pressure gradient relaxes, winds
and seas will diminish during the second half of the work week and
into the weekend.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  57  91  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  60  90  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  88  69  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$