963
FXUS64 KHGX 130535
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Some stratiform very light rain skirting across some of the
coastal counties, but much of the focusing has pushed well
offshore. With a worked over atmosphere, not expecting much in the
way of impactful rainfall well into the overnight hours. We are
however looking for some scattered shra/tstm redevelopment a few
hours before sunrise near the coast...eventually expanding to
around the US59/I69 corridor as we head into the late morning and
early afternoon hours. This activity should be more disorganized
in nature than what we saw pass through last night and this
morning. Have cancelled the Flood Watch for all locations except
Jackson, Matagorda & Brazoria Counties who saw 6-14" of rainfall
earlier today. Extended the Watch there thru the day Friday.
Despite the more scattered nature of the precipitation, some
decent downpours remain a possibility. If they happen to fall
right over that corridor that has already seen high amounts,
water will be prone to rapidly runoff and cause some localized
flooding (much lower thresholds/rates than we`d typically see
elsewhere). 47

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms that affected many
locations in Southeast TX will continue to gradually shift to our
east. We are still expecting to have some vort maxes pass overhead
this afternoon to evening which could continue to result in areas
of light rain through at least the early evening hours, in
particular for areas near and south of I-10. Some coastal
locations may see brief periods of moderate rain. Rain chances
will decrease during the early night hours, although some
isolated showers may still occur from time to time. A few more
rounds of showers and storms can be expected later tonight into
Friday as the mid level disturbance continues to meander within
the OK/AR region and an unstable airmass remains in place. We will
have sufficient moisture to support the early morning showers and
storms, however, models indicate some drier air in our region
during that time as well...which could help keep some of the
rainfall more on the light to moderate range. We are expecting to
then see an uptick in showers and storms after sunrise and into
early afternoon hours, as both moisture and instability increases.
Some of these storms will once again be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.
We will need to keep an eye on the areas that received high
rainfall amounts today as these soils may stay fairly saturated on
Friday and any additional heavy rainfall could lead to additional
flooding impacts. That being said, we may consider extending the
Flood Watch for portions of Southeast TX.

Given that the timing for these showers and storms may occur
during the morning commute, it is recommended to stay aware of
your surroundings and keep an eye on the radar and road
conditions. Have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts. Do
not cross any flooded areas.

Cotto

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The long term flow pattern features mid/upper ridging over SW and
SE CONUS, and a positive tilt trough extending from the Ohio River
Valley down to south-coastal Texas. This pattern will keep the
daily risk of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
the middle portion of next week, though there are signs of a
pattern change featuring more ridging over our neck of the woods
by the middle to later portion of next week. The environment this
weekend through early next week should remain moisture rich.
Global ensembles suggest PWATs skewing above normal through at
least Monday. By Tuesday-Wednesday, ensembles are bifurcated
between keeping PWATs anomalously high and dropping PWATs to near
normal values. But even normal SE Texas June PWATs are pretty
high. So moisture is not an issue. With the daily chance of
showers/thunderstorms will also come the risk of locally heavy
rainfall and flooding. Given the heavy rains we have seen this
week, it may not take THAT much rain to result in localize
flooding this weekend into early next week.

Regarding temperatures, afternoon highs are expected to be in the
upper 80s to low 90s. It will remain very humid. Even the "drier"
guidance shows afternoon dew points in the low 70s. Current blend
utilized in our dew point grids shows afternoon values generally
in the mid 70s (upper 70s near the coast). Peak afternoon heat
index values are expected to be near 105 degrees (technically
below heat advisory criteria). However, WBGT values are expected
to peak around 86-88 during the early afternoon. These values are
considered hazardous for anyone doing strenuous activity as well
as those who are sensitive to heat (example elderly, young
children).

Drink your water y`all!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Lower cloud decks should fill in overnight with intermittent MVFR
CIGS possible during the predawn hours of Friday. Areas north of
I-10 closer to KCLL and KUTS are most likely to see these lower
FLs, though model guidance is starting to back off on their
extend and impacts. FLs briefly improve after sunrise, though as
it does the next wave of showers/thunderstorms should start to
develop during the late morning. Much of this activity should be
focused south of the I-10 corridor closer to Galveston & Chambers
county. Terminals in the vicinity of this area may see training
storms, capable of producing gusty winds and low visibility from
heavier rains. North of I-10, storm activity will generally be
more isolated and broadly weaker in many regards. Showers and
storms taper off late Friday afternoon/early evening with MVFR
decks/cigs possible again overnight.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Thunderstorms, gusty winds, and rough seas will result in
hazardous marine conditions into the early afternoon today.
Conditions are expected to improve this afternoon. However,
onshore flow is expected to increase again tonight into Friday
morning, likely increasing seas again. Conditions will be
borderline Small Craft Advisory and an advisory may be warranted
at some point between now and Friday morning. The outlook for this
weekend into early next week features continued light to moderate
onshore flow and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Higher
winds and waves possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  90  75  91 /  10  30   0  30
Houston (IAH)  77  91  77  92 /  10  50  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  83  89 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ235>237-335>337-436-437.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self