739
FXUS64 KHGX 221111
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will continue this week, with potential for heat
  stress issues as heat indices approach 107F (41-42C) each day.

- A high risk of strong rip currents will continue early this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A pattern shift is underway as a midlevel ridge axis begins to
build over south and southeast Texas today. This will eliminate
the weakness in the ridge that was supporting overnight and
morning showers and storms across our area the past few days.
There will still be periodic convection passing just north of the
area early this week in association with disturbances rounding
the longwave upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS.
However, the building ridge axis will act as a shield, with storms
either redirecting around our area or falling apart as they
approach. The first such wave of storms is currently ongoing over
northwest OK and will track southeastward into the Red River
Valley through the early morning hours. We cannot entirely rule
out weakening showers reaching our northern zones around Crockett
and Madisonville around mid-morning, but this activity is
expected to quickly fall apart. It may, however, make for more
high cloud cover today particularly in these areas.

Otherwise, another warm day is on tap with high temps returning
to the low to mid 90s (32-34 C) and heat indices in the mid 100s
(40-42 C). It`s possible a few areas may briefly reach heat
advisory criteria today, but for now we aren`t expecting that to
be widespread enough to post an advisory, especially since high
cloud debris spreading in from the north may interfere with
daytime insolation in some areas.

Similar weather is anticipated throughout the upcoming week, with
hot conditions and minimal rain chances. Additional convective
waves may pass just north of our area, but even in our
northernmost zones, we still do not have rain chances in the
forecast through the week. Though we will have to monitor heat
indices each day, there are indications that stronger daytime
mixing will occur through at least midweek, which will help
mitigate heat stress concerns somewhat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

MVFR CIGS will scatter and lift out later this morning. VFR
conditions prevail through the daytime with breezy S/SE winds
with gusts around 20 knots, up to around 25 knots along the
coastline. Winds and gusts diminish this evening with another
round of MVFR CIGS filling in overnight. Cannot rule out a short
period of IFR CIGS early Tuesday morning, with chances for IFR
conditions more favorable N/NW of the Houston Metro area. CIGs
scatter out again after sunrise.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Strengthening wind overnight resulted in an upgrade to a Small
Craft Advisory through the early part of today. However, winds
will noticeably decrease this afternoon resulting in calmer
conditions throughout our marine areas heading into this evening.
Through the remainder of the week, light to moderate onshore flow
will prevail with seas mainly 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  78  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  79  94  77 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  83  89  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
     335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DL
AVIATION...03
MARINE...DL