739
FXUS64 KFWD 260004
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
704 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.

- Heat indices will approach or slightly exceed critical advisory
  levels today and Saturday. Additional advisories will likely be
  required later next week.

- Limited rain chances return this afternoon, increasing through
  the weekend, with the greatest chances (40-60%) across the
  Brazos Valley Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Based on radar trends had earlier raised pops across our eastern
counties as showers and storms have moved as far west as a Kaufman
to Marquez line. Activity should continue to diminish over the
next hour or two with the loss of daytime heating and subsidence
aloft from the upper level ridge. No other changes were made to
the forecast.


Shamburger

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Saturday/

Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist today,
necessitating a continuation of the heat advisory for much of the
area. We`re running anywhere from 1-3 degrees above normal in many
areas as of early afternoon, so many locations - including DFW
Airport - should hit 100 degrees for the first time this year. A
few showers may intrude in the far southeast counties of the
forecast area this afternoon, while the remainder of the region
remains rain free.

Some modest changes are in store for Saturday as an easterly wave
tracks westward out of Southeast Texas into the central core of
the state. This feature will deliver an enhanced area of deep
layer moisture, in addition to weak lift. As a result, scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop over the
east central, southeast and south central portions of our
forecast area by Saturday afternoon. Cloudcover associated with
this wave will affect most of the remainder of North Texas
Saturday, except the far northwest counties. This should constrain
high temperatures from reaching 100 in most areas. Nevertheless,
a modest increase in dewpoints will still enable heat indices to
approach or exceed the 105 threshold by afternoon. Issued a new
Heat Advisory for Saturday, but trimmed back the existing
configuration of the advisory to just the far northwest and
northern counties, extending southward to the I-20 corridor.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 144 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/
/Sunday through Friday/

An easterly wave will track westward across Texas this weekend,
bringing clouds, scattered precipitation, and some modest relief
from the searing daytime temperatures that are usually experienced
around these parts. By early next week, this wave will be
dissipating over northern Mexico, replaced by an intensifying mid
level high pressure ridge which will retrograde into the Southern
Plains. Strong subsidence associated with this feature will force
many areas of North and Central Texas to confront daytime highs
over 100 for a multi-day period next week. While extended model
guidance suggests the presence of slightly drier air across the
region next week, warmer air temperatures will probably compensate
for the reduced humidities, thus necessitating additional heat
advisories for some areas by mid week.

Looking beyond the current forecast period into next weekend,
there are indications that the ridge will erode somewhat and/or
shift westward, with another upper wave evolving over East Texas
or the Lower Mississippi Valley. This may yield some temporary
relief from the hotter conditions expected through this upcoming
week. Some limited rain chances may return to the region by next
weekend as well.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Ongoing storms east of DFW have just entered the far eastern part
of D10 but are expected to diminish by the time they reach the
Dallas County border. Another low chance of VCSH/VCTS is expected
late tomorrow afternoon for D10, but chance appears too low to
include in TAFs attm. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected this
TAF period with few/sct low level clouds and sct/bkn cirrus. South
winds up to 13 kts will continue through tomorrow.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  95  79  96  79 /   5  30   0  10   0
Waco                77  92  77  93  76 /   5  40   5  10   0
Paris               76  91  75  93  76 /   5  30   5  10   0
Denton              78  97  78  96  78 /   0  20   0  10   0
McKinney            77  94  77  96  77 /   5  30   0  10   0
Dallas              79  95  79  96  79 /   5  30   0  10   0
Terrell             76  93  76  94  76 /  10  40   5  10   0
Corsicana           77  93  77  96  76 /   5  40   5  10   0
Temple              76  92  76  94  74 /   5  40  10  10   0
Mineral Wells       75  98  76  97  76 /   0  20   0  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>094-100>105-
116>120.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-106-107-
121>123-134-135-146>148-162.

&&

$$