025 FXUS64 KFWD 070715 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today, especially across Central Texas where flooding is possible. - Rain chances will lower across North and Central Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, a few strong storms are possible with gusty winds and small hail. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Thursday into the weekend with heat index readings up to 107 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Tonight/ Much quieter on radar this morning across North and Central Texas with just a few light rain showers in Milam and Bell Counties. Airmass across the region remains very moist with a PWAT of 2.17 on the 00Z FWD sounding, albeit lower than we have seen the past few days. Weak upper trough that has brought all the rain and flooding to the state over the past several days is expected to continue weakening today as it moves slowly westward across Central Texas. Even so, lift associated with the feature and the very moist airmass will lead to another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms today across our southwest counties. Heaviest rain today looks to be just southwest of our cwa per 00Z model suite and latest CAMs, but HREF/HRRR/NAM still show pockets of 1 to 3+ inches of rain roughly in the area between Comanche and Killeen. Given how much rain this area has seen over the past 3 days with MRMS radar rainfall estimates ranging from 4 to 10 inches of rain, have gone ahead and issued another Flood Watch for our far southwest counties through 00Z. Flooding is not anticipated to be as widespread or significant as yesterday, but it will not take much additional rainfall to cause flood issues. Less coverage of showers and storms is anticipated across the rest of the forecast area today, but some locally heavy rainfall is possible even outside the Flood Watch. All activity is expected to rapidly dissipate around 00Z with dry conditions overnight tonight. Cloud cover and precip will keep temperatures down again today, with highs only in the low 80s in our southwest up to the low 90s in our northeast. Shamburger && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Sunday/ Rain chances will finally begin to diminish Tuesday and Wednesday across the region as the aforementioned upper trough finally and thankfully dissipates. Upper pattern will then transition to more northerly flow as North/Central Texas remains on the east side of a strong H5 ridge over the Four Corners. This will shift the higher rain chances into our northern and eastern counties with potential for activity to also move southward out of Oklahoma. A strong storm or two is possible both days as MLCAPE rises above the 1000 J/Kg mark, but nothing widespread is currently anticipated. From Thursday into the weekend, the upper ridge will begin dominating our weather regime with little or no precip chances and much hotter temperatures than we have seen in a while. Guidance overall has trended cooler for this timeframe and the chance for seeing highs in the 100s appears to be gone. Still, the combination of highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the 60s/70s will push heat index readings into the 100-107 range each afternoon, and heat advisories may be needed for parts of our forecast area - especially our eastern counties. Shamburger && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR conditions are expected at all airports this TAF period with broken cigs generally between 5-10k ft. VCSH will impact airports from late morning through the afternoon, but activity looks to remain scattered enough to not include tempo SHRA. South winds up to 12 knots will continue through the TAF period. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested across Central Texas due to the potential for flooding today. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 76 92 76 94 / 40 10 20 10 20 Waco 87 74 90 73 91 / 30 5 20 10 30 Paris 92 73 91 73 93 / 20 5 40 20 30 Denton 90 74 92 74 94 / 40 10 30 10 20 McKinney 91 75 92 75 93 / 20 10 30 10 30 Dallas 92 76 94 76 95 / 30 10 20 10 20 Terrell 92 74 92 74 93 / 20 10 30 10 30 Corsicana 92 75 92 75 93 / 20 5 20 10 30 Temple 89 72 90 72 91 / 30 10 20 10 30 Mineral Wells 89 73 92 73 93 / 50 5 20 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ141>143-156>158. && $$