262 FXUS64 KFWD 122337 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms shifting east of our area this evening. - Low rain chances will continue into the weekend and early next week, but a warming trend will begin with highs in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Most of the showers and storms have shifted east of the forecast area with only a couple of light showers persisting in the Paris and Athens areas early this evening. With the potential of heavy rainfall diminished, the Flood Watch that had been in effect for was cancelled early. We will keep some low chances of showers in the far east this evening before these last showers dissipate or move out. Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ Overall, quiet conditions will prevail the rest of today as the bulk of this mornings rain and storms have exited to our east. A few lingering showers and storms may continue to impact our far eastern counties this afternoon. Though the highest threat for flash flooding is shifting to the east, with the continuing rain chances the Flood Watch will remain in effect for portions of East Texas through 7 PM. The upper level low responsible for the active weather will continue to move very slowly east-northeast into the Arklatex region over the next 24 hours. For tonight, low clouds will return to the region keeping the overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. For tomorrow morning, some of the high-res guidance shows wrap- around moisture and weak forcing moving southward from Oklahoma into the Red River. We added a slight chance for showers and storms along the Red River to account for this potential, but our thinking is that this activity should weaken as it moves into our area. Otherwise, expect clouds to clear by late morning or early afternoon with a few showers and storms possible across portions of the Brazos Valley. High temperatures will climb into the low 90s west of I-35 as the clouds clear out early in the afternoon. Areas to the east might stay in the upper 80s as clouds linger longer over that area. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 258 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ Update: The upper level trough will give way to an upper ridge building in from the west this weekend, limiting rain chances through early next week. That said, it is MCS season and models do hint that a decaying MCS out of Oklahoma may be possible Saturday night. If this MCS does develop, a brief damaging wind concern could materialize for the Red River counties. Temperatures will peak on Tuesday with lower 90s in the southeast to near 100 in the northwest. By mid to late week, the ridge starts to break down, allowing for increase thunderstorm chances and slight cooler temperatures. OUN Previous Discussion: /Friday Night Onward/ A slow-moving upper trough with an enclosed low will continue shifting northeast and away from the region this weekend as a mid/upper ridge builds in from the west. Rain chances will hence decrease and shift east into the eastern counties of North and Central Texas this weekend into the early part of next week. One exception may be Saturday night, when recent operational deterministic guidance has indicated a complex of storms developing in Oklahoma and pushing south through North Texas around the east flank of the ridge. That scenario is not unusual for June, so POPs may need to be raised for areas north of I-20 for Saturday night. If this MCS does develop, a brief damaging wind concern could materialize for the Red River counties. Whatever the case, temperatures climb to above-normal values late weekend through the middle of next week. At this time it looks like the warmest weather will occur on Tuesday, when highs will range from the lower 90s in the southeast to near 100 in the northwest. The ridge will break down Wednesday into next Thursday as a shortwave moves east across the Rockies, bringing additional storm chances along with slightly cooler temperatures mid to late next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 529 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ /00Z TAFs/ Scattered clouds around 3 to 4 kft will gradually dissipate this evening before additional MVFR ceilings return tonight and persist through Friday morning. With plenty of moisture still in the lower levels, latest guidance shows a 30-50% chance of IFR ceilings Friday morning (centered around 12Z). Afterward, conditions should slowly improve to VFR by 16-18Z. Otherwise, south-southeast winds around 5-10 kts will prevail through the period. Day && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 90 76 92 74 / 5 20 10 10 10 Waco 69 89 74 90 73 / 0 20 0 10 5 Paris 68 86 71 87 72 / 20 20 30 30 10 Denton 69 91 74 92 73 / 5 20 10 10 10 McKinney 69 89 74 90 73 / 5 20 10 20 10 Dallas 70 91 75 92 75 / 5 20 10 10 10 Terrell 69 88 74 90 73 / 5 20 10 20 5 Corsicana 71 89 75 90 75 / 5 20 5 10 5 Temple 69 89 74 91 73 / 5 20 5 10 5 Mineral Wells 69 92 73 94 73 / 5 5 5 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$