095
FXUS64 KFWD 242223
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
523 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.

- Rain chances return Friday and continue through the weekend,
  with the greatest chances (40-60%) across the Brazos Valley
  Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The wind forecast was updated this afternoon with CONSShort
numbers as the NBM speeds seem a bit too low, and temperatures
were updated based on hourly trends. Otherwise the ongoing
forecast looks good.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tomorrow/

Summertime heat is officially here, but with a small meteorological
twist. Our first widespread 100 degree day typically ensues when
a mid/upper high builds nearby (usually to the west) and provides
a "heat dome" over the region. Much of North Texas has 100 degrees
in the forecast for the first time this year today and/or tomorrow,
and while there is a mid/upper ridge over the region, it is not
coincident with an organized high center. The ridge over our area
the next few days is on the outer extent of a mid/upper high over
the eastern CONUS. The ridge is being locally enhanced, largely as
a mass response due to the area being sandwiched between areas of
lift/saturation...one to our NW and one to our SE. Localized
intense subsidence is occurring, resulting in subsident air and
hot temperatures locally. It is also relatively humid, with dew
point temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s areawide. While the
strong subsidence is aiding in deeper boundary layers (and better
mixing to lower afternoon dew points), heat index values in the
heat of the day are still forecast to peak in the 100s both today
and tomorrow.

Portions of North and East Texas should be near or above 105 this
afternoon, resulting in a Heat Advisory being issued for a good
chunk of our forecast area. Similar heat index values are
forecast for tomorrow across the advisory area, so we have
extended the advisory through Friday at 9 pm with this forecast
update.

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop in
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this evening/tonight that will make
a run for our western North Texas counties late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. Any precipitation should dissipate by the time
it gets to our forecast area due to the aforementioned subsident
airmass over the region. Concurrently, scattered showers and
storms are forecast to continue through the night well to our SE
along and ahead of a westerly moving tropical wave moving along
the Gulf Coast. Locally...expect another quiet night with lows in
the upper 70s and a light south wind.

As we move into tomorrow, tropical moisture will move into our
area from the southeast in association with the aforementioned
tropical wave. Current model soundings indicate PWATs exceeding
the 90th percentile for this time of the year (values around
2.25-2.5") for most locations east of I-35 and south of I-30.
Anywhere along and east of the leading edge of the moisture axis
will experience isolated to widely scattered showers and storms in
the afternoon. The atmosphere will be largely uncapped after the
boundary layer mixes by mid-morning, so it won`t take much heating
to trigger storm development in the afternoon. We aren`t expecting
severe weather, only short-lived pulse storms that have the
potential to produce brief downpours and gusty winds/outflow
boundaries. Similar to today, a broad area of lift/moisture will
remain in place to our northwest with additional scattered showers
and storms developing northwest of our forecast area. The
localized area of intense subsidence between these two features
is expected to remain over the area tomorrow, creating a rather
sharp gradient/lull in precip coverage across western North and
Central Texas.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025/
/This Weekend and Next Week/

Tropical moisture will continue to move inland, resulting in a
hot and humid weekend. If there is any good news, it is that the
moisture will bring additional cloud cover and precipitation
chances...so afternoon highs will be a few degrees lower, in the
low to mid 90s. Portions of the area will likely meet or exceed
the 105 degree heat index threshold required for a heat advisory,
but we are not confident enough to make additional changes to the
heat advisory at this time. Regarding precip chances this weekend,
there will be enough moisture...but the lift will be weak and
disorganized. Showers and storms will be relying on diurnal
heating and outflow boundaries to trigger development. While PoPs
are between 40-60% across the Brazos Valley (and lower the further
N and W you go), the coverage of precip will be very spotty, so a
total wash out of outdoor plans is not expected due to an "all-
day rain" event.

The inverted trough/tropical wave will continue moving across the
Rio Grande Valley and West Texas Sunday and early next week as
heights build into our area from the east. This will bring a
return to the hot and generally rain-free conditions through the
early parts of next week. We`ll keep an eye on any additional
tropical waves that could move into the area on the southern
periphery of the mid/upper high late next week.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A tropical wave in the northwest Gulf will move slowly west,
eventually bringing scattered showers to Central Texas Friday
afternoon. Precipitation will likely remain east and south of all
TAF sites, but will need to monitor radar trends tomorrow. Winds
will back to the southeast Friday afternoon as a strong gulf
breeze pushes inland, requiring a second line in the TAF. A swath
of low clouds will surge northwest through the area Friday
night/Saturday morning, which will need to be addressed in later
forecasts.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78 100  79  94  78 /   0   5   0  20   5
Waco                75  96  77  91  76 /   0  20   5  30   5
Paris               74  96  75  91  75 /   0  10   0  30   5
Denton              76 101  78  95  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
McKinney            75 100  77  93  76 /   0  10   0  20   5
Dallas              78 100  79  95  78 /   0  10   0  20   5
Terrell             75  99  76  93  75 /   0  20   5  30   5
Corsicana           76  96  77  94  76 /   0  20   5  40   5
Temple              74  96  75  92  75 /   0  20  10  30   5
Mineral Wells       74 102  75  97  75 /   0   0   0  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-134-135-146>148-162.

&&

$$