095 FXUS64 KFWD 242223 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 523 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week. - Rain chances return Friday and continue through the weekend, with the greatest chances (40-60%) across the Brazos Valley Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The wind forecast was updated this afternoon with CONSShort numbers as the NBM speeds seem a bit too low, and temperatures were updated based on hourly trends. Otherwise the ongoing forecast looks good. 30 Previous Discussion: /Today and Tomorrow/ Summertime heat is officially here, but with a small meteorological twist. Our first widespread 100 degree day typically ensues when a mid/upper high builds nearby (usually to the west) and provides a "heat dome" over the region. Much of North Texas has 100 degrees in the forecast for the first time this year today and/or tomorrow, and while there is a mid/upper ridge over the region, it is not coincident with an organized high center. The ridge over our area the next few days is on the outer extent of a mid/upper high over the eastern CONUS. The ridge is being locally enhanced, largely as a mass response due to the area being sandwiched between areas of lift/saturation...one to our NW and one to our SE. Localized intense subsidence is occurring, resulting in subsident air and hot temperatures locally. It is also relatively humid, with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s areawide. While the strong subsidence is aiding in deeper boundary layers (and better mixing to lower afternoon dew points), heat index values in the heat of the day are still forecast to peak in the 100s both today and tomorrow. Portions of North and East Texas should be near or above 105 this afternoon, resulting in a Heat Advisory being issued for a good chunk of our forecast area. Similar heat index values are forecast for tomorrow across the advisory area, so we have extended the advisory through Friday at 9 pm with this forecast update. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this evening/tonight that will make a run for our western North Texas counties late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Any precipitation should dissipate by the time it gets to our forecast area due to the aforementioned subsident airmass over the region. Concurrently, scattered showers and storms are forecast to continue through the night well to our SE along and ahead of a westerly moving tropical wave moving along the Gulf Coast. Locally...expect another quiet night with lows in the upper 70s and a light south wind. As we move into tomorrow, tropical moisture will move into our area from the southeast in association with the aforementioned tropical wave. Current model soundings indicate PWATs exceeding the 90th percentile for this time of the year (values around 2.25-2.5") for most locations east of I-35 and south of I-30. Anywhere along and east of the leading edge of the moisture axis will experience isolated to widely scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. The atmosphere will be largely uncapped after the boundary layer mixes by mid-morning, so it won`t take much heating to trigger storm development in the afternoon. We aren`t expecting severe weather, only short-lived pulse storms that have the potential to produce brief downpours and gusty winds/outflow boundaries. Similar to today, a broad area of lift/moisture will remain in place to our northwest with additional scattered showers and storms developing northwest of our forecast area. The localized area of intense subsidence between these two features is expected to remain over the area tomorrow, creating a rather sharp gradient/lull in precip coverage across western North and Central Texas. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025/ /This Weekend and Next Week/ Tropical moisture will continue to move inland, resulting in a hot and humid weekend. If there is any good news, it is that the moisture will bring additional cloud cover and precipitation chances...so afternoon highs will be a few degrees lower, in the low to mid 90s. Portions of the area will likely meet or exceed the 105 degree heat index threshold required for a heat advisory, but we are not confident enough to make additional changes to the heat advisory at this time. Regarding precip chances this weekend, there will be enough moisture...but the lift will be weak and disorganized. Showers and storms will be relying on diurnal heating and outflow boundaries to trigger development. While PoPs are between 40-60% across the Brazos Valley (and lower the further N and W you go), the coverage of precip will be very spotty, so a total wash out of outdoor plans is not expected due to an "all- day rain" event. The inverted trough/tropical wave will continue moving across the Rio Grande Valley and West Texas Sunday and early next week as heights build into our area from the east. This will bring a return to the hot and generally rain-free conditions through the early parts of next week. We`ll keep an eye on any additional tropical waves that could move into the area on the southern periphery of the mid/upper high late next week. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ A tropical wave in the northwest Gulf will move slowly west, eventually bringing scattered showers to Central Texas Friday afternoon. Precipitation will likely remain east and south of all TAF sites, but will need to monitor radar trends tomorrow. Winds will back to the southeast Friday afternoon as a strong gulf breeze pushes inland, requiring a second line in the TAF. A swath of low clouds will surge northwest through the area Friday night/Saturday morning, which will need to be addressed in later forecasts. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 100 79 94 78 / 0 5 0 20 5 Waco 75 96 77 91 76 / 0 20 5 30 5 Paris 74 96 75 91 75 / 0 10 0 30 5 Denton 76 101 78 95 77 / 0 0 0 10 0 McKinney 75 100 77 93 76 / 0 10 0 20 5 Dallas 78 100 79 95 78 / 0 10 0 20 5 Terrell 75 99 76 93 75 / 0 20 5 30 5 Corsicana 76 96 77 94 76 / 0 20 5 40 5 Temple 74 96 75 92 75 / 0 20 10 30 5 Mineral Wells 74 102 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-134-135-146>148-162. && $$