788 FXUS64 KFWD 162331 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 631 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezy weather will continue on Thursday. - Storm chances return Friday evening and continue through Easter morning. A few storms could be strong or severe, mainly Friday night through Saturday evening. Some locations across North Texas may also see periods of heavy rain Saturday and Sunday. - Additional rounds of showers and storms will arrive towards the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ Upper level features of note at the present are a dominant ridge centered over Texas and the Plains, an upper low off the California coast, and a shortwave dropping south out of British Columbia. At the surface, North and Central Texas is currently sandwiched between a ridge over the Ohio Valley and a lee-side trough. The resulting south flow and warm air advection combined with the presence of the upper ridge will maintain the warming trend through Thursday. Though already breezy, south winds will further strengthen over the next 24 hours as the lee trough deepens in response to the eastward advancing low and southward dropping shortwave. Wind speeds of 15-25 MPH through tonight will strengthen to 20-30 MPH on Thursday. At this time it appears that velocities will be just below Wind Advisory criteria and there are no plans to issue anything at this time. A slight southwest/downslope component to the low level flow will also aid in the above-normal temperatures on Thursday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. A weak disturbance in the southwest flow aloft will bring a batch of mid level clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles Thursday afternoon and evening, but measurable rain is not likely and POPs will be kept below 20 percent. Otherwise, it will remain warm Thursday evening with temperatures remaining above 70 until after midnight. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ /Thursday Night Onward/ A period of active weather will unfold this weekend, followed by a brief lull early next week until another active period begins mid next week. A few severe storms will be possible, with hail and damaging winds expected to be the main threats. On Friday, low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of a digging mid-level trough near the Four Corners Region. A series of shortwaves ahead of the parent trough will skirt the region Friday evening and Saturday. Most of Friday and Friday evening will be quiet, with only isolated warm advection showers expected. A dryline will sharpen to our west during the day, but dense cloud cover will likely prevent destabilization, keeping thunderstorm development limited. There is still a low chance we will destabilize enough for isolated storm development Friday evening, but this is looking increasingly less likely at this time. Storm chances will increase late Friday night into Saturday morning, as storms develop ahead of an approaching surface low and cold front. This activity will pose a threat for hail and damaging winds, mainly across the Big Country where storms will have the best potential of remaining somewhat discrete - at least for a brief period of time. However, these storms will likely evolve into a cluster of storms, which will keep the severe threat rather isolated as they gradually move east/southeast through the remainder of the night. On Saturday, the surface low and cold front will lose much of their momentum, slowing to a crawl as they enter portions of North Texas. Another weak shortwave will move overhead, and there will be a potential for a few rounds of storms to develop across the region throughout the day. Instability remains a bit questionable, which could limit both storm coverage and intensity. However, a few severe storms can`t be ruled out, with hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary threats. The parent mid-level trough will swing into the Plains Saturday evening/overnight, giving the slow-moving cold front a reinforcing push. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/along the front and will likely grow upscale into a line of storms rather quickly. As a result, the severe threat will be rather limited once upscale growth occurs. The main concern will quickly transition to heavy rain, as PWAT values will be above the climatological 90th percentile. The line of storms will gradually move east/southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning, likely exiting the region around midday Sunday, concluding our first period of active weather. Rainfall totals from Friday through Sunday will range from 1" to 1.5" on average across Central Texas, and 1.5" to 2.5" on average across North Texas. Isolated (10% chance) totals up to 3.5" will be possible near and north of I-20. A brief period of quiet weather will carry us into early next week, but there is a strong signal amongst ensemble guidance that active weather will return towards the middle of next week. Otherwise, expect high temperatures in the 70s and 80s on a daily basis, with morning lows in the 50s and 60s. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Breezy south winds will continue through Thursday night, with the strongest being Thursday afternoon when 18020G30KT will be common across the board. Winds will likely drop to 10-15 kt for a few hours around sunset this evening, but will strengthen after 03Z with the development of a 40KT low level jet. This jet will also usher in a deck of stratocumulus overnight into Thursday morning, generating MVFR ceilings (starting 09Z at KACT and 11Z in the DFW Metroplex). Conditions should return to VFR by midday Thursday. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 88 67 86 68 / 0 0 10 10 50 Waco 64 87 67 88 69 / 0 0 5 5 20 Paris 62 83 65 84 68 / 0 0 5 20 40 Denton 61 88 64 86 64 / 0 0 10 20 60 McKinney 63 85 65 84 67 / 0 0 10 10 50 Dallas 64 88 67 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 50 Terrell 62 85 66 85 68 / 0 0 5 10 30 Corsicana 64 88 68 88 70 / 0 0 5 5 20 Temple 63 89 66 89 68 / 0 0 5 5 20 Mineral Wells 62 93 64 89 64 / 0 5 10 10 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$