566 FXUS64 KFWD 121036 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 536 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through Friday. The highest flood threat will shift slowly east across Central Texas. Isolated strong storms with small hail and gusty winds are possible. - Rain chances will decrease over the weekend and early next week, but a warming trend will begin with highs in the 90s returning. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue moving east this morning, with the flood threat now east of the I-35 corridor. Training thunderstorms will continue to dump copious amounts of rain across Central Texas, resulting in another 2 to 4 inches of rainfall. Isolated areas will continue to have the potential for rainfall totals up to 5 to 7 inches. The main round of rain today will be the ongoing showers and storms which should exit the region mid to late morning. However, additional scattered showers and storms may develop through the afternoon near and east of I-35. The Flood Watch currently runs through 7 pm this evening, but we will monitor for a potential early cancellation depending on how things evolve throughout the day today. The previous forecast remains in good shape this morning, so no major adjustments were needed. Some minor tweaks were made to PoPs on Friday, mainly to expand low storm chances further west across North Texas where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible throughout the day. Barnes Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage along and west of the I-35 corridor late this evening, with this trend expected to continue for the remainder of the night. Slow storm motions and cell training will attribute to a threat for flash flooding tonight. The latest WoFS runs continue to advertise a few 5-7+" bullseyes across portions of Central Texas through approximately 4 am this morning generally south of I-20 and near/west of I-35/Highway 6. The ongoing convective activity will likely merge into an MCS through the remainder of the night, which will continue to slowly move east across the forecast area during the day today. Shortly after sunrise this morning, the main flash flood threat will shift east of the I-35 corridor. In these areas, an additional 2-4" of rain can be expected on average today, with isolated areas (10% coverage) seeing rainfall totals between 5-7". The severe weather threat will remain low overnight and Thursday, but isolated strong to marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out. Small hail and gusty winds would be the main threats. The tornado threat will also remain low but not entirely zero. The main area to watch for an isolated tornado will be across Central/Southeast Texas later tonight and into Tuesday morning. The upper low responsible for this period of active weather and heavy rain will become increasingly displaced from North and Central Texas Thursday night into Friday, shunting the best rain chances into the Deep South. However, mid-level ridging will remain well to our west, with a couple of weak shortwaves expected to pass overhead. With moisture and instability both still in abundance, we`ll maintain some low storm chances through Friday, primarily east of the I-35 corridor. This activity could pose a threat for isolated severe hail and damaging winds, especially Friday afternoon. A lack of any noteworthy forcing mechanisms will keep storm coverage fairly isolated. Otherwise, below normal temperatures will continue today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A warming trend will begin on Friday as highs return to the 90s across portions of the area, but temperatures will still be near or slightly below normal for most locations. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 309 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ /Friday Night Onward/ A slow-moving upper trough with an enclosed low will continue shifting northeast and away from the region this weekend as a mid/upper ridge builds in from the west. Rain chances will hence decrease and shift east into the eastern counties of North and Central Texas this weekend into the early part of next week. One exception may be Saturday night, when recent operational deterministic guidance has indicated a complex of storms developing in Oklahoma and pushing south through North Texas around the east flank of the ridge. That scenario is not unusual for June, so POPs may need to be raised for areas north of I-20 for Saturday night. If this MCS does develop, a brief damaging wind concern could materialize for the Red River counties. Whatever the case, temperatures climb to above-normal values late weekend through the middle of next week. At this time it looks like the warmest weather will occur on Tuesday, when highs will range from the lower 90s in the southeast to near 100 in the northwest. The ridge will break down Wednesday into next Thursday as a shortwave moves east across the Rockies, bringing additional storm chances along with slightly cooler temperatures mid to late next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the region this morning, with this activity expected to gradually exit to the east mid to late morning. The thunderstorm activity should finally be south/east of the terminals, but can`t entirely rule out a stray lightning strike for the next couple of hours. We`ll need to monitor for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon along/east of the I-35 corridor, but there is low confidence in if and/or where this activity will develop. Otherwise, MVFR/intermittent IFR ceilings will continue this morning. Some improvements are expected by late morning, with VFR returning early to mid afternoon. Have introduced MVFR ceilings overnight Thursday night, as confidence is increasing that we`ll see another round of stratus. However, timing is still a bit uncertain and may need to be adjusted in future issuances. In the wake of the departing showers and storms, winds may swing out of the east or even northeast through the afternoon. Fortunately, wind speeds should remain around 5 to 7 knots during this time period, with southeast winds returning this evening. Barnes && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 72 90 76 92 / 40 5 20 10 10 Waco 82 71 88 74 90 / 50 5 20 5 10 Paris 76 69 86 72 87 / 80 30 40 20 20 Denton 83 69 91 73 92 / 40 5 20 10 10 McKinney 80 70 89 74 91 / 60 10 20 10 10 Dallas 82 71 91 76 92 / 50 5 20 10 10 Terrell 80 70 88 73 90 / 70 10 20 10 20 Corsicana 82 73 89 75 91 / 70 10 30 5 20 Temple 84 71 90 74 91 / 50 5 20 5 20 Mineral Wells 85 69 93 73 93 / 10 5 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-117>123- 130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$