037
FXUS64 KEPZ 250436
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1036 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

 - Warming and mainly dry weather through Saturday with isolated
   storms favoring the Sacramento mountains and eastern areas.

 - Moisture starts to increase Sunday through Tuesday with more
   widespread thunderstorm activity.

 - The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday as a
   monsoonal plume sets up over the area. Increased moisture will
   allow temperatures to fall below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Moisture plume still over much of the area, though thinner than
Wednesday. Also dry intrusion from the west has made it to about
Deming late this evening. Deming west currently shows dewpoints
upper 20s to lower 30s and PWs as low as one-half inch. To the
east dewpoints remain in the 50s, with PWs from .75 to 1.00
inches. This basic pattern will hold for Friday/Saturday, with the
chance of thunderstorms limited to Otero and Hudspeth Counties.
Temperatures will warm back above normal both days with the
lowlands seeing some triple digits again.

Sunday and beyond still seeing a moistening up as Bermuda high
ridge is forced north of the CWA as inverted trough moves west
over northern Mexico. This creates and east/southeast flow which
brings sub-tropical weather back into the area. GFS a bit faster
than the ECMWF, suggesting the plume is already more concentrated
over the western CWA by Monday and Tuesday. Regardless, the 50s
dewpoints return along with PWs of 1.0-1.2 inches. Relatively high
rain chances all areas, though will have to see if models continue
to favor the western half of the CWA by Tuesday. Needless to say,
flood potential will also increase during this period. By Thursday
the monsoon high builds in over the Texas Panhandle and eastern
New Mexico. This likely will limit any chances of rain to just
west of the Cont Divide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

VFR expected through the period. SCT109 SCT-BKN250. Developing
after 18Z, mainly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties...isolated
BKN060CB 5SM -TSRA. Some of these storms could produce pea-size
hail and wind gusts of 25-35 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Elevated fire danger tomorrow and Saturday for almost all the
lowlands except portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties as min RHs
will dip to critical thresholds (12-15%). In addition, this drier
air that`s coming in will help to warm up temperatures back to
above average. Our saving grace will be the light winds each
afternoon (10-15mph) and the light drainage winds overnight.
Better moisture starts pushing in from the southeast Sunday
allowing for a bit better thunderstorm chances. Min RHs still at
or below critical thresholds Sunday afternoon along and west of
the Continental Divide. A good monsoonal tap of moisture will
allow for good rain chances across the area starting Monday
through Wednesday. Min RHs stay above critical thresholds early
next week with values 20-40% in the lowlands and 40-50% in the
mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65  93  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               65  96  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68  94  69  96 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  73  52  74 /  10  20   0  10
Truth or Consequences    66  95  67  96 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              61  89  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   63  98  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65  95  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                67  97  69  97 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             71  99  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               66  90  68  92 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                   69  98  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             68  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           71  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66  95  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    65  98  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 67  98  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                66  93  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  55  83  57  85 /  20  20   0  10
Mescalero                55  83  56  86 /  10  20   0  10
Timberon                 55  81  56  82 /  20  20   0  10
Winston                  55  88  55  88 /  10   0   0  10
Hillsboro                61  94  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                63  94  65  96 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             55  89  56  90 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   61  92  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    62  96  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  91  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  63  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   65  95  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  63  94  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           64  94  66  95 /   0  10  10   0
Cloverdale               64  90  65  90 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner