037 FXUS64 KEPZ 250436 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1036 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Warming and mainly dry weather through Saturday with isolated storms favoring the Sacramento mountains and eastern areas. - Moisture starts to increase Sunday through Tuesday with more widespread thunderstorm activity. - The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday as a monsoonal plume sets up over the area. Increased moisture will allow temperatures to fall below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Moisture plume still over much of the area, though thinner than Wednesday. Also dry intrusion from the west has made it to about Deming late this evening. Deming west currently shows dewpoints upper 20s to lower 30s and PWs as low as one-half inch. To the east dewpoints remain in the 50s, with PWs from .75 to 1.00 inches. This basic pattern will hold for Friday/Saturday, with the chance of thunderstorms limited to Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Temperatures will warm back above normal both days with the lowlands seeing some triple digits again. Sunday and beyond still seeing a moistening up as Bermuda high ridge is forced north of the CWA as inverted trough moves west over northern Mexico. This creates and east/southeast flow which brings sub-tropical weather back into the area. GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF, suggesting the plume is already more concentrated over the western CWA by Monday and Tuesday. Regardless, the 50s dewpoints return along with PWs of 1.0-1.2 inches. Relatively high rain chances all areas, though will have to see if models continue to favor the western half of the CWA by Tuesday. Needless to say, flood potential will also increase during this period. By Thursday the monsoon high builds in over the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. This likely will limit any chances of rain to just west of the Cont Divide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 VFR expected through the period. SCT109 SCT-BKN250. Developing after 18Z, mainly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties...isolated BKN060CB 5SM -TSRA. Some of these storms could produce pea-size hail and wind gusts of 25-35 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Elevated fire danger tomorrow and Saturday for almost all the lowlands except portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties as min RHs will dip to critical thresholds (12-15%). In addition, this drier air that`s coming in will help to warm up temperatures back to above average. Our saving grace will be the light winds each afternoon (10-15mph) and the light drainage winds overnight. Better moisture starts pushing in from the southeast Sunday allowing for a bit better thunderstorm chances. Min RHs still at or below critical thresholds Sunday afternoon along and west of the Continental Divide. A good monsoonal tap of moisture will allow for good rain chances across the area starting Monday through Wednesday. Min RHs stay above critical thresholds early next week with values 20-40% in the lowlands and 40-50% in the mountains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 93 67 94 / 10 10 10 10 Las Cruces 65 96 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 94 69 96 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 73 52 74 / 10 20 0 10 Truth or Consequences 66 95 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 61 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 63 98 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 67 97 69 97 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 71 99 73 101 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 66 90 68 92 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 69 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 68 96 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 66 95 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 65 98 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 66 93 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 83 57 85 / 20 20 0 10 Mescalero 55 83 56 86 / 10 20 0 10 Timberon 55 81 56 82 / 20 20 0 10 Winston 55 88 55 88 / 10 0 0 10 Hillsboro 61 94 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 94 65 96 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 55 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 61 92 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 62 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 63 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 94 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 64 94 66 95 / 0 10 10 0 Cloverdale 64 90 65 90 / 0 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner