261
FXUS64 KFWD 251822
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.

- Heat indices will approach or slightly exceed critical advisory
  levels today and Saturday. Additional advisories will likely be
  required later next week.

- Limited rain chances return this afternoon, increasing through
  the weekend, with the greatest chances (40-60%) across the
  Brazos Valley Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Saturday/

Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist today,
necessitating a continuation of the heat advisory for much of the
area. We`re running anywhere from 1-3 degrees above normal in many
areas as of early afternoon, so many locations - including DFW
Airport - should hit 100 degrees for the first time this year. A
few showers may intrude in the far southeast counties of the
forecast area this afternoon, while the remainder of the region
remains rain free.

Some modest changes are in store for Saturday as an easterly wave
tracks westward out of Southeast Texas into the central core of
the state. This feature will deliver an enhanced area of deep
layer moisture, in addition to weak lift. As a result, scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop over the
east central, southeast and south central portions of our
forecast area by Saturday afternoon. Cloudcover associated with
this wave will affect most of the remainder of North Texas
Saturday, except the far northwest counties. This should constrain
high temperatures from reaching 100 in most areas. Nevertheless,
a modest increase in dewpoints will still enable heat indices to
approach or exceed the 105 threshold by afternoon. Issued a new
Heat Advisory for Saturday, but trimmed back the existing
configuration of the advisory to just the far northwest and
northern counties, extending southward to the I-20 corridor.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/
/Sunday Onward/

The mid-level ridge axis will become repositioned to our east
late in the weekend, before expanding across most of the Southern
Plains heading into the workweek. Until then, our forecast area
will remain in a relative weakness aloft as the easterly wave
responsible for convective activity in the short term drifts
northwestward along the periphery of the ridge. This should allow
for additional isolated shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday
afternoon with coverage of only about 10% or less. We`ll carry
broad low PoPs across most of the area to advertise this minimal
potential, but most locations should expect to remain dry on
Sunday. The presence of lingering cloud cover will likely hold
highs in the mid/upper 90s, and only a smattering of locations may
meet or exceed Heat Advisory criteria.

A return to hotter temps and rain-free weather is forecast for
the first half of next week as the ridge expands and strengthens.
Triple-digit highs should become increasingly prevalent, although
aggressive mixing of dewpoints into the 60s and even 50s should
limit heat index values to near or below 105 for all but some of
our East Texas zones. Some rain chances could return towards the
end of the workweek as the mid-level ridge retrogrades to the
northwest.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Saturday
afternoon. An easterly wave over Southeast Texas will spawn some
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in areas
well to the east/southeast of Waco and the D10 TAFs. This system
will creep westward Saturday, resulting in an areal expansion of
convection across North Texas. Coverage will likely be sufficient
to require a future inclusion of VCTS in the D10 and Waco TAFs
from 18z onward Saturday.

Weak surface troughing over New Mexico and West Texas will
facilitate a south to southeasterly flow regime today through
Saturday with speeds averaging 6 to 10 knots.

Bradshaw

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  79  95  79  96 /   0   5  30   0  10
Waco                97  77  92  77  93 /   0   5  40   5  10
Paris               96  76  91  75  93 /   5   5  30   5  10
Denton             101  78  97  78  96 /   0   0  20   0  10
McKinney            99  77  94  77  96 /   0   5  30   0  10
Dallas             101  79  95  79  96 /   0   5  30   0  10
Terrell             99  76  93  76  94 /   5  10  40   5  10
Corsicana           99  77  93  77  96 /   5   5  40   5  10
Temple              99  76  92  76  94 /   5   5  40  10  10
Mineral Wells      102  75  98  76  97 /   0   0  20   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>094-100>105-
116>120.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-106-107-
121>123-134-135-146>148-162.

&&

$$