261 FXUS64 KFWD 251822 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 122 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week. - Heat indices will approach or slightly exceed critical advisory levels today and Saturday. Additional advisories will likely be required later next week. - Limited rain chances return this afternoon, increasing through the weekend, with the greatest chances (40-60%) across the Brazos Valley Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Saturday/ Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist today, necessitating a continuation of the heat advisory for much of the area. We`re running anywhere from 1-3 degrees above normal in many areas as of early afternoon, so many locations - including DFW Airport - should hit 100 degrees for the first time this year. A few showers may intrude in the far southeast counties of the forecast area this afternoon, while the remainder of the region remains rain free. Some modest changes are in store for Saturday as an easterly wave tracks westward out of Southeast Texas into the central core of the state. This feature will deliver an enhanced area of deep layer moisture, in addition to weak lift. As a result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop over the east central, southeast and south central portions of our forecast area by Saturday afternoon. Cloudcover associated with this wave will affect most of the remainder of North Texas Saturday, except the far northwest counties. This should constrain high temperatures from reaching 100 in most areas. Nevertheless, a modest increase in dewpoints will still enable heat indices to approach or exceed the 105 threshold by afternoon. Issued a new Heat Advisory for Saturday, but trimmed back the existing configuration of the advisory to just the far northwest and northern counties, extending southward to the I-20 corridor. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ The mid-level ridge axis will become repositioned to our east late in the weekend, before expanding across most of the Southern Plains heading into the workweek. Until then, our forecast area will remain in a relative weakness aloft as the easterly wave responsible for convective activity in the short term drifts northwestward along the periphery of the ridge. This should allow for additional isolated shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday afternoon with coverage of only about 10% or less. We`ll carry broad low PoPs across most of the area to advertise this minimal potential, but most locations should expect to remain dry on Sunday. The presence of lingering cloud cover will likely hold highs in the mid/upper 90s, and only a smattering of locations may meet or exceed Heat Advisory criteria. A return to hotter temps and rain-free weather is forecast for the first half of next week as the ridge expands and strengthens. Triple-digit highs should become increasingly prevalent, although aggressive mixing of dewpoints into the 60s and even 50s should limit heat index values to near or below 105 for all but some of our East Texas zones. Some rain chances could return towards the end of the workweek as the mid-level ridge retrogrades to the northwest. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Saturday afternoon. An easterly wave over Southeast Texas will spawn some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in areas well to the east/southeast of Waco and the D10 TAFs. This system will creep westward Saturday, resulting in an areal expansion of convection across North Texas. Coverage will likely be sufficient to require a future inclusion of VCTS in the D10 and Waco TAFs from 18z onward Saturday. Weak surface troughing over New Mexico and West Texas will facilitate a south to southeasterly flow regime today through Saturday with speeds averaging 6 to 10 knots. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 79 95 79 96 / 0 5 30 0 10 Waco 97 77 92 77 93 / 0 5 40 5 10 Paris 96 76 91 75 93 / 5 5 30 5 10 Denton 101 78 97 78 96 / 0 0 20 0 10 McKinney 99 77 94 77 96 / 0 5 30 0 10 Dallas 101 79 95 79 96 / 0 5 30 0 10 Terrell 99 76 93 76 94 / 5 10 40 5 10 Corsicana 99 77 93 77 96 / 5 5 40 5 10 Temple 99 76 92 76 94 / 5 5 40 10 10 Mineral Wells 102 75 98 76 97 / 0 0 20 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>094-100>105- 116>120. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-106-107- 121>123-134-135-146>148-162. && $$