343
FXUS64 KFWD 090022
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
722 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Above normal temperatures and rain-free weather will continue
   this week.

 - Wildfire starts will become increasingly likely through the
   week, but lower wind speeds should largely limit the
   spread/intensity of any fires that develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight Through Wednesday/

Apart from the wobbly east-northeastward trajectory of Hurricane
Milton across the Gulf of Mexico, very little pattern change is
expected over the next 24 hours. Aloft, subtropical ridging will
continue to slowly build eastward into West Texas. At the surface,
high pressure centered over the Upper/Middle Mississippi and Ohio
River Valleys will continue to sag southward in the wake of the
early week cold front.

Tonight, amid light winds and the very dry airmass in place,
efficient radiational cooling will support lows dipping into the
lower 50s to lower 60s. By tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will
rebound back to around 10-15 degrees above normal. As discussed
previously, the main concern heading into the next few days will
be the emerging fire weather threat due to relative humidity
dipping below 30% while unseasonably warm conditions prevail.
Though wind speeds will be modest (less than 10 mph), somewhat
mitigating the threat for significant wildfire growth and spread,
a risk of new fire starts may still emerge in the presence of
drought-stressed vegetation.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 422 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024/
/Thursday through next Tuesday/

The onslaught of unseasonably warm and rain-free weather which
has afflicted North Texas so far in October (and for most of the
past several weeks) will continue unabated this week and through
the weekend. Our region will remain on the eastern flank of a
tenacious upper ridge over Arizona and New Mexico, with warm
southerly surface flow persisting. Subsidence on the flank of the
ridge will promote continued strong daytime warming, with much of
the area facing a sustained string of 90+ highs from Thursday
through Sunday. Daily maxima, while not threatening any records,
will remain anywhere from 10-15 degrees above normal for mid
October. With no rain expected anytime in the near future, fine
grass fuels (and even larger tree and shrubby vegetation) will
continue to dry out, promoting a threat of increased grass fire
starts through the weekend.

There is light at the of the tunnel, however. A broad longwave
upper trough will become established over the Great Lakes and
Northeast States in the upcoming Monday through Wednesday
timeframe. The upper ridge to our immediate west will be flattened
and shunted farther west, facilitating the arrival of a cold
front out of the Central Plains Sunday night. This will usher
significantly cooler temperatures into the area Monday and
Tuesday, with daytime highs ranging anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than those experienced over the weekend. Lows in the 50s
will dominate the region by Tuesday morning, with widespread 40s
expected by Wednesday morning.

Indeed, longer-range temperatures appear much more October-like
through the remainder of next week - a nice change of pace from
what we`ve experienced. Unfortunately, no appreciable rainfall
appears on the horizon for the next 2 weeks, which will aggravate
the growing drought conditions across the region.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the current TAF period
with light easterly winds becoming more southeasterly after 03Z.
Wind speeds will remain AOB 7 kts. No significant weather impacts
expected over the next few days.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  86  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                58  89  61  92  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               54  84  54  85  57 /   0   0   0   5   5
Denton              57  88  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            56  87  58  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              61  88  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             56  86  57  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           58  89  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              56  91  58  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       58  91  61  92  61 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$