358
FXUS64 KCRP 231142
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
542 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Fog potential returns tonight

Mid to upper-level trough will transition into the Southern Plains
through the short-term period, while energy associated to it swings
by our area. The low-level flow is progged to strengthen through
Tuesday allowing for moisture increase across the region, with PWATs
rising to around 1.1-1.2" over eastern portions of the CWA. The
combination of the increased moisture, and weak instability will
provide for slight rain chances over portions of the northern
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads today through tomorrow. Rain
chances will be at their highest across the marine zones owing to
better moisture availability, while a few thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out. Rainfall amounts though will be very minimal and mostly
remaining less than a tenth of an inch.

Chances for patchy fog increase over much of the area tonight in
response to the increased low-level moisture, dry mid-levels, and a
weaker flow briefly developing overnight. SREF probs have increased
to around 50-70% over portions of the Crossroads and Brush Country
by daybreak Tuesday with very similar probs indicated by HREF
members. Conditions should improve by mid morning though, with the
fog lifting thereafter. Aside from this, coastal/surf conditions
will have to be monitored today as buoys 19 and 20 have increased
swell periods to around 10-11 seconds early this morning. The
Gerling-Hanson plots are indicating these periods to come down
through the day, but until they do, we have to keep an eye for an
increased risk of rip currents.

Otherwise, temperatures will be warm with highs ranging from the low
to mid 70s along the coast to the low 80s out west today, and mostly
in the lower 80s on Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to
run from the upper 50s along the inner Coastal Plains to the mid 60s
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Christmas Eve Night.

- Low (30%) chance for patchy fog Christmas morning.

As a shortwave passes north of our area Tuesday night, a weak cold
front will drift toward South Texas. Guidance has not been
especially consistent with the timing and strength of this front,
with some runs not making it into the area at all, and others
stalling it out. Regardless of the details, it looks like we could
see a few showers with the front in the northern Coastal Bend and
Victoria Crossroads, closest to the main mid-level wave energy.
While we can`t rule out a shower farther south, chances look
minimal. Current guidance suggests convection would end by day-break
on Wednesday leaving a mainly dry Christmas Day. South of the front,
patchy fog will be possible through mid-morning. Temperatures should
reach the lower 80s Wednesday afternoon despite the front.

The aforementioned front is likely to lift back north as a warm
front Wednesday night, and we`ll stay in an unsettled pattern
through the end of the week with weak boundaries in the area.  A
stronger front could push through by Sunday as the mid level pattern
changes with troughing shifting eastward and ridging building west.
With little consistency in models, there`s low confidence in any
impact to temperatures behind that front, but it`s more of the
Pacific variety than Arctic, so we`re not anticipating a big cool
down yet. Temperatures likely remain above normal through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions is ongoing across area
terminals, with the lowest ceilings impacting the three western
sites. A return to VFR is expected by mid to late morning,
however, conditions are forecast to deteriorate again overnight
with sites falling back to MVFR levels by early Tuesday morning.
Fog will be of concern tonight, with models indicating a medium to
high chance of development across area terminals. A few showers
may near VCT today, but chances remain low enough not to be
included in the TAFs at this time. Light easterly to southeasterly
winds this morning will increase to around 10-15 knots early this
afternoon, with gusts to near 25 knots possible. Winds are
forecast to decouple later this evening, becoming light again
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A generally weak to at times moderate south to southeasterly flow
can be expected today through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected as well, mainly across
the offshore waters. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue
over the waters for most of this week. A few showers and storms
will be possible each day. A front expected to move through over
the weekend would shift winds to the north at least briefly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  63  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
Victoria          78  60  81  60 /  10  10  20  30
Laredo            82  63  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             81  59  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          76  64  76  63 /  10  10  10  20
Cotulla           82  62  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        81  61  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       74  66  75  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...ANM/88