214
FXUS64 KCRP 142331
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
531 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Key Message:

-Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through late Friday.

The dry air mass behind yesterdays front and subsidence from a mid-
level high over South Texas has been promoting clear skies today.
The forecast is expected to remain settled as persistence is the
main driver for the next day or two. The mid-level high will wander
eastward over the northern central Gulf through the end of the week.
Efficient radiational cooling will help promote cooler overnight
temperatures tonight followed by warmer lows tomorrow night as
onshore flow returns advecting warmer air inland.

Afternoon highs today will top out in the mid 70s along the coast to
low 80s inland. Tomorrow look for a similar range but a degree or
two higher. Overnight lows tonight range in the mid 40s north to the
low to mid 50s from the Coastal Bend to the Brush Country and mid
60s on the island. Tomorrow night will range from the mid 50s to
around 70 degrees.

Coastal flooding remains a concern this weekend due to the
combination of lunar influence on tides, Ekman transport mechanism
from northeasterly flow veering back to onshore flow tomorrow. Have
maintained the Coastal Flood Advisory through late Friday night but
this is likely to be extended by the overnight shift. The greatest
impacts will be during times of high tide, generally from the
afternoon into evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Hazardous Marine and Coastal conditions will persist through next
week

- Lows in the 40s-50s returning early next week

At the start of the extended period, an upper-level ridge
accompanied by a surface high-pressure system will progress
eastward, resulting in southeasterly onshore flow at the surface and
bringing increased warmth and moisture into South Texas. Throughout
the weekend and into Monday, high temperatures will range from the
low 80s to low 90s, while overnight lows will settle in the mid-60s
to low 70s.

As moisture advection strengthens ahead of a significant upper-level
low and an associated surface low with a trailing cold front,
isolated showers may develop Sunday over the waters, the Coastal
Plains, and across the Victoria Crossroads region. This potential
for scattered showers and isolated storms will persist through
Monday and Monday night, as the cold front advances toward the area,
eventually sweeping through early Tuesday. Behind this front, cooler
air will settle over the region, with highs on Tuesday mainly in the
upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s.

A reinforcing cold front at the 850 mb level will follow on Tuesday
and into Wednesday, ushering in even cooler conditions. High
temperatures will be limited to the upper 60s to low 70s, with
overnight lows dropping into the 40s across much of South Texas.

With significantly cooler air moving over the relatively warm Gulf
waters, stronger winds are likely to develop over the water due to
deep mixing. This could lead to occasional gale-force gusts late
next week. More on this in the Marine discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions will persist through this period as high pressure
builds over the region. The ridging will shift to the east with a
southeasterly wind developing by Friday afternoon, increasing
slightly but remaining generally at or below 10kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Weak to moderate northeast winds this afternoon will continue to
diminish while veering more easterly tonight. Weak easterly flow
Friday will become weak to moderate onshore flow late Friday. Rain
chances through tomorrow night remain near zero. Weak to moderate
onshore flow will be in place on Saturday before the winds
strengthen to moderate to strong and wave heights increase Sunday
ahead of our next cold front early next week, leading to another
period of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Advisory conditions
will likely be needed through at least the middle of next week as
strong to very strong northerly winds and elevated seas will
prevail behind the front, with the potential for gusts to reach
gale force. As far as precipitation, the elevated moisture ahead
of the front will warrant a low chance (20-30%) of showers through
early Monday morning, increasing to a medium to high chance
(50-70%) through Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    53  79  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          45  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            54  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             49  83  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          59  80  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           51  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        51  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       66  77  70  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CST Friday night for
     TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...PH/83