037
FXUS64 KCRP 170505
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1205 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Key Message:
- Thursday will be warm and breezy, leading to near-critical fire
conditions across the Brush Country.
Onshore surface flow will persist through the short-term period,
supporting a continued increase in low-level moisture and cloud
cover across the area. Overhead, an upper-level ridge will remain
in place, effectively suppressing convective development and
contributing to net zero rain chances. Overnight tonight, the
increasing cloud cover will limit radiational cooling, leading to
mild lows in the 60s.
By Thursday, south-southwesterly mid-level flow will promote
continued drying and warming. This dry, warm air is expected to
mix down to the surface producing a notably warmer day across the
region. High temperatures will approach the triple digits along
the Rio Grande and climb well into the 90s across much of the CWA.
Slightly cooler conditions, with highs in the 80s, will be
confined to the eastern portions of the Coastal Bend and up into
the Victoria Crossroads. Cloud cover will persist Thursday night,
preventing substantial cooling. As a result, overnight lows will
range from the upper 60s to low 70s.
In addition, a tightened pressure gradient combined with a
strengthening 40-knot LLJ will once again support breezy
conditions on Thursday and Thursday night. Sustained winds will
peak between 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph. Conditions
will continue to be monitored overnight to determine the
whether a Wind Advisory will be needed for portions of the area
tomorrow. These windy conditions will also contribute to elevated
to near- critical fire weather concerns, but more on this in the
Fire Weather Discussion below.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Key Messages:
- Windy conditions Friday and Saturday with peak gusts over 35 mph
over portions of the Coastal Plains Friday afternoon and elevated
fire weather concerns over the Rio Grande Plains.
- Low-medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening
through Sunday with best chances over northern areas. Low chances
continue through Wednesday over the region.
A mid-level high over the southwestern Gulf moves towards the
central Gulf this weekend with the ridge axis stretching up to the
southeastern coast of the U.S. accompanied by a developing mid-
level low over the Great Basin and Range. As we progress through
the weekend the aforementioned low will swing northeast across the
Plains and towards the Great Lakes region before entering over
Canada. This will result in southwesterly flow aloft over Texas
followed by a shift to a quasi-zonal flow taking hold early in the
upcoming work week. Wrap around PVA and associated moisture will
infiltrate the region, increasing moisture in the lower to mid-
levels. PWAT`s are progged to climb to around 1.50-2.00" according
to the GEFS ensemble mean. This will be combined with a frontal
boundary that approaches our CWA early in the week before
retreating back north. The question is will this boundary make it
to the coast? Currently, some operational models such as the
ECMWF and GFS try to bring the front to the coast but confidence
is low, however, it should improve with better congruency between
models and how things trend in future runs. Have decided on the
NBM as a solution and a low chance for precipitation/thunderstorms
(15-30%) this weekend through the first half of next week. FROPA
early on Sunday will feature the best opportunity for rain or
thunder accompanied with a low to moderate chance (20-40%) across
the CWA.
Afternoon temperatures Friday are progged to max out near 100 across
the western Brush Country followed by mid 90s Saturday then low 90s
early next week. For the rest of the CWA, expect mid 80s to low 90s
late this week into next week. Overnight lows will generally range
from the mid 60s to 70s across the region through the period. Windy
conditions this weekend with peak gusts over 35 mph will be
accompanied by mostly cloudy skies becoming partly cloudy early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
Southeasterly winds around 10 knots will persist through this early
morning due to a southerly low-level jet (LLJ) of around 30-35
knots. Only contain a patchy MVFR vsby reduction potential over the
prone terminals of ALI/VCT. There will be periods of MVFR cigs
across South Texas mainly between 09-14Z as reflected in the TEMPOs.
VFR conditions with upper-level clouds will follow as south to
southeasterly winds strengthen significantly through the afternoon
hours, sustained 20-25 knots with gusts nearing 35 knots over the
coastal sites of CRP/VCT/ALI. The LLJ will strengthen Thursday
evening to around 45 knots, keeping breezy conditions intact with
southeasterly winds of 15-20 knots and gusts near 30 knots with MVFR
ceilings developing east to west.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
A fresh (BF 5) southeasterly breeze will be in place tonight
before increasing to become fresh to strong (BF 5-6) early
Thursday. These winds will lead to choppy conditions in the bays,
with seas increasing to from around 2 feet to 4-6 feet across the
near and offshore waters. The fresh to strong southeasterly winds
(BF 5-6) will persist through Friday with seas generally 5-8 ft
over the Gulf waters. Over the weekend, winds will weaken to
moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) followed by a gentle to moderate
breeze (BF 3-4) towards the beginning of the upcoming work week.
Concurrently, expect a brief wind shift to the east/northeast
Monday associated with a weak frontal boundary. There will be a
25-35% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with the best
chances over the northern waters. Lower rain/thunderstorm chances
will linger through mid- week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
This evening, winds above the boundary layer become more
southwesterly, thereby decreasing mid-level moisture. The drier
air will mix down on Thursday leading to minimum RH`s generally
ranging between 20-30% across the Brush Country. Energy Release
Components (ERCs) on Thursday will be between the 50th-80th
percentile. In addition, 20-foot winds will max out near 20 mph.
The combination of these conditions will lead to near-critical to
critical fire conditions on Thursday across the Brush Country. A
Fire Danger Statement may be needed. A slight RH improvement is
forecast across the Brush Country this Friday into the weekend.
However, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
generally expected across the western Brush Country Friday and
Saturday with 20 ft winds approaching 20 mph. Then, elevated fire
weather conditions will persist through early next week over the
same region as minimum RHs remain around 30% and Energy Release
Components are forecasted to be in the 70-89th Percentile range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 84 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 84 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
Laredo 97 70 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 91 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 82 72 83 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 96 70 99 73 / 0 0 0 10
Kingsville 88 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 79 72 80 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Friday
for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ270-275.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...EMF/94