368
FXUS64 KCRP 161846
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Medium to High chances (50-80%) for showers with a few
  thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday in the Coastal Plains;
  30-50% elsewhere.

- Warmer than normal temperatures much of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Moisture will continue to pump into the area today through
Wednesday with PWAT values approaching max levels. Seasonal
average is around 0.8" with Max around 1.8"; the forecast is for
1.5-1.8 tonight into Wednesday. Combine this with a coastal trough
and an upper level disturbance, and rain chances are as high as
70-80% in the Coastal Plains. With such high moisture levels some
areas could top an inch of rain over the next 36 hours. Rainfall
rates as high as 2"/hour could lead to quick ponding on roads,
mainly over urban areas, but flash flooding risk is limited.
While mostly shower activity is expected. a few thunderstorms are
possible in the Coastal Plains especially late morning and
afternoon.

Showers and storms taper off by Thursday as the coastal trough
moves away from the area and a cold front approaches. While there
is still some uncertainty still exists on the frontal passage,
several runs of forecast models have pushed it through the area,
thus confidence is increasing. While the front will be dry,
temperatures behind will drop back to near normal levels (after
80s on Thursday). The seasonal temperatures will not last long
though as we`ll warm back into the 80s by Saturday through early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Rain chances increase late tonight and through the day on
Wednesday, primarily for VCT, CRP and ALI TAF sites. While most of
the activity will be showers, a few thunderstorms are possible
late morning and in the afternoon especially for VCT/CRP. Winds
will remain generally light and at times variable. CIGS are
expected to gradually fall this afternoon and remain low (MVFR to
IFR) east through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Gentle to moderate onshore (BF 3-4) winds are expected through
Thursday. Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday due to
an inverted trough with medium to high chances (40-80%) for rain.
A cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday night
into Friday morning with winds shifting north. Small craft
advisories may be necessary as fresh to strong (BF 5-6) develop
behind the front. Winds will weaken into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Moisture is on the increase today and will continue through
Wednesday with moderate to high rain chances in the Coastal Bend
tonight and Wednesday. Drier air moves back into the region by
Thursday followed by a cold front Thursday night. RH values west
could fall below 30% Thursday and Friday, but winds will be
generally weak. Elevated fire weather conditions are not
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  71  61  79 /  60  70  10   0
Victoria          58  72  59  79 /  50  70  10   0
Laredo            57  74  55  83 /  20  10   0   0
Alice             58  73  58  82 /  60  60   0   0
Rockport          61  70  61  75 /  60  80  10   0
Cotulla           55  73  53  83 /  40  10   0   0
Kingsville        61  73  60  81 /  60  70   0   0
Navy Corpus       65  70  64  74 /  60  80  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83