487
FXUS64 KBRO 172347
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
547 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

* There remains low to medium rain chances along the coast later
  this afternoon and evening.

* Patchy to areas of fog possible late tonight into Wednesday
  morning.

* Temperatures will cool slightly on Friday, otherwise we will
  remain above seasonal norms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Rain has moved well offshore this morning and most of the CWA will
remain dry for the remainder of the day. Afternoon heating, a
coastal trough in place, and ample moisture could be enough to fire
off some more showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
evening primarily in the coastal counties. Right now we are keeping
chances at 20-40% along and east of I-69C with higher chances on the
coast. PWATs on this mornings sounding at KBRO reached 1.84 inches
and is expected to continue to lower through the day. With that
said, forecasted PWATs this evening will be around 1.3 to 1.6
inches, which could still lead to some locally heavy rain with the
strongest activity. Rainfall chances will end late this evening and
overnight with dry conditions anticipated through the remainder of
the forecast period. Patchy to areas of fog are anticipated late
tonight into Thursday morning reducing visibility to 2 miles or
less is some areas.

A cold front will move through the CWA on Thursday night into early
Friday morning with little impact outside of a slight drop in
temperatures.

Temperatures today will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Outside of
mid to upper 70s expected again on Friday in wake of a cold front,
afternoon temperatures will top out in the mid 80s through the
remainder of the forecast.

At areas beaches, there is a moderate risk of rip currents today
into tonight and likely again on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Light showers are slowly dissipating over all sites, leaving a
deck of clouds between VFR and MVFR heights through early
tonight. Light and variable winds with ample moisture in the lower
atmosphere will allow for fog to form late tonight through early
Thursday morning at all sites. Medium-high confidence of fog
reducing vsby to IFR/LIFR conditions at BRO and HRL, and low-
medium confidence at MFE. Visibilities may begin dropping as soon
as 05Z and stay reduced through as late as 17Z. Highest
confidence is in the couple hours surrounding sunrise. Conditions
should begin to improve mid- morning and return to VFR Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue
into tonight which could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.
Winds turn out of the northeast Thursday night into Friday with a
passing cold front. Otherwise expect southeasterly winds. Wave
heights of 3 of 4 feet with 5 to 7 second periods are expected

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             63  83  62  78 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               59  84  57  76 /  20   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 61  86  59  77 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         56  86  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      66  76  67  72 /  30   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     62  81  61  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...69-HK