996
FXUS64 KBRO 220558 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - Dry conditions, breezy at times, and seasonably hot
   temperatures prevail across deep south Texas through this
   upcoming weekend.

 - Moderate to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) on Monday
   and a moderate heat risk on Tuesday become minor (level 1 of
   4) to moderate Wednesday and Thursday, followed by moderate
   heat risks over the weekend.

 - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) has been issued for the
   Monday afternoon and early evening hours across the coastal
   and inland portions (excluding the barrier islands) of Cameron,
   Willacy and Kenedy counties as well as Northern/Southern
   Hidalgo and Starr counties for heat indices of 108 to 111 F.

 - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues
   through Monday afternoon.

 - Adverse marine conditions linger into Monday, improving Monday
   night into Tuesday before deteriorating again over the
   weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A building high pressure aloft (peaking as high as 597+ dam on
Tuesday), stretching from the Desert Southwest to the Gulf,
followed by the lack of any significant approaching troughs leaves
deep south Texas with seasonably hot and dry conditions through
this upcoming weekend; highs continue to maximize in the mid/upper
90s in the afternoon and mainly upper 70s overnight, aside from
lower 80s in southeastern Cameron and along the Gulf coast. A
tightened pressure gradient leads to breezy onshore southeasterly
winds on Monday (gusting to around 25-35 mph) and Tuesday (gusting
to near 20-30 mph); the combination of hot temperatures and
elevated lower-level moisture content is likely to lead to mostly
moderate heat risks, with pockets of major across the coastal
counties on Monday, through Tuesday. A SPS has been issued for
the Monday afternoon and early evening hours across the coastal
and inland portions (excluding the barrier islands) of Cameron,
Willacy and Kenedy counties as well as Northern/Southern Hidalgo
and Starr counties for heat indices of 108 to 111 F, generally
between 12 PM to 7 PM Monday. A few locations may briefly
experience heat index values above 111 F degrees. If spending
time outside today, drink plenty of water, wear light weight and
light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks from the heat.
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles.

Following, winds ease just a bit into the middle and later parts of
the week, reducing heat indices to 100-108 F Wednesday and Thursday,
resulting in minor heat risks across the Northern Ranchlands and
moderate heat risks across the RGV. Increasing southeasterly
winds enhance moisture content and escalate apparent temperatures
to near 105 to 110 F with moderate heat heat risks over the
weekend.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Light southeast winds and a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings prevail
across Deep South Texas early this morning. A few periods of MVFR
ceilings will be possible overnight, especially at MFE.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours.
Southeast winds are forecast to increase and become moderate to
breezy later this morning. Some gusts near 30 knots will be
possible in the afternoon. MVFR ceilings may return late in the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A Small Craft Advisory (SCEC) remains in effect until 1 PM Monday
afternoon as mostly strong south-southeasterly winds and moderate (5-
7 feet) seas persist. Winds ease to moderate to fresh and out of the
southeast by Monday evening, with Small Craft Exercise Caution
(SCEC) possible through Monday night. Mainly moderate southeasterly
winds and moderate seas (3-5 feet) resume Tuesday before enhancing
enhance again over the weekend, with SCEC and/or SCA possible. Dry
conditions maintain as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  82  93  80 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               94  79  94  77 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 96  80  95  79 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  79  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  82  88  82 /   0   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  81  91  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...63-KC