561
FXUS64 KBRO 230425
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1025 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1022 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

 * Patchy fog and dense fog are expected tonight, especially
   across the ranchlands. Additional dense fog is likely Wednesday
   morning and Christmas Eve into Christmas morning.

 * There is a brief low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and
   isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

 * A strong cold front with cooler temperatures works towards the
   border late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

The subtropical ridge generally holds through most of the
forecast period, maintaining well-above normal temperatures, over
10 degrees above normal, through Christmas and into the last
weekend of 2025. Weak lift and instability aloft paired with
surges of moisture help kick up a low to medium (20-30 percent)
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
a low (less than 15 percent) chance of mainly offshore showers
Wednesday. A strong cold front near the end of the forecast period
arrives late Sunday into Monday, bringing back a medium (30-40
percent) chance of rain and cooler temperatures, to at least near
normal, if not a few degrees cooler.

Confidence in dense fog tonight has not been as good as the past
few nights, with the best chance of development across the
ranchlands. NBM, SREF, and HREF probabilities all keep a low to
medium (15-30 percent) chance of visibility reduced below 1 mile
late tonight, mainly after 4 or 5 AM. Will issue an SPS for now
for occasional dense fog and let the overnight crew monitor for
any upgrades. There is a better signal for fog into Wednesday
morning and again Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. Will
continue to monitor and brief the North Pole on the potential need
for Rudolph across Deep South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to give way to MVFR and potentially
IFR conditions late tonight with patchy fog and dense fog
developing late and a lower stratus deck arriving from the south.
VFR ceilings return by mid morning Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1022 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Southeasterly onshore flow continues into this weekend with a
gradually increasing swell. The chance of rain diminishes but
continues into Wednesday. Patch fog and dense fog will reduce
visibility at times along the bay and nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             68  83  67  83 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN               65  84  64  83 /  10  30   0  10
MCALLEN                 69  86  67  86 /  10  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         66  86  65  86 /   0  20  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      69  76  70  76 /  10  20  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     67  80  65  80 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman