918 FXUS64 KBRO 140551 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Southeasterly flow, deep moisture, and surface convergence are favorable for a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms, particularly for the eastern counties on both Saturday and Sunday. Chances are around 20% on Saturday mainly east of I-69E and between 20-35% on Sunday, with the highest chances along the coast. Sunday`s precipitation chances will also surge further inland than Saturday`s, reaching west of of the I-69C corridor. Hot and humid conditions are also expected, with Saturday and Sunday being slightly above average. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s/lower 100s on Saturday and Sunday with heat indices of up to 110 in some areas. Winds will be southeasterly, continuing to advect deep moisture over the area from the Gulf. Low temperatures will be in the upper 70s/lower 80s with very high overnight relative humidities throughout all Deep South Texas tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week, particularly in the eastern portions of the County Warning Area. Current model guidance is showing the potential for a tropical wave to bring increased precipitation chances (up to 70%) on Thursday through Saturday, particularly for areas east of I-69C. NBM Quantitative Precipitation Forecast values have values over 1 in the Eastern Counties for all three days, indicating that localized heavy rain is possible for some areas on these days. However, the amount and exact locations of the heaviest precipitation is still to be determined. Some models have the heaviest precipitation going to our south into Mexico, whereas others have the heaviest areas of precipitation over Deep South Texas. This will be monitored throughout the week for better consensus as the forecast evolves. This tropical disturbance will help bring high temperatures below seasonal values later this week; temperatures will drop from the mid- to-upper 90s to a more pleasant upper 80s/lower 90s, and skies will transition from partly to mostly cloudy. Low temperatures will remain fairly consistent throughout the week in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will remain light to moderate and southeasterly, supporting the continued advection of tropical moisture into the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Mostly clear skies and light to moderate southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. However, there is a low to medium chance of brief MVFR ceilings at BRO and HRL late tonight through around sunrise. Otherwise, light winds overnight will increase and become breezy later this morning, some gusts near 25 knots will be possible in the afternoon. Winds are expected to slowly decrease after sunset this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Moderate seas are expected throughout the weekend into early next week, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and wave heights between 3-4 feet. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten mid- to-late next week, which will result in increased winds and building seas, where Small Craft Advisory and Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria could potentially be reached. An increase in tropical moisture and potential tropical disturbance could also bring localized heavy rainfall offshore, which could further deteriorate conditions near any showers or thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 81 94 80 / 20 30 40 30 HARLINGEN 96 78 95 77 / 20 20 30 20 MCALLEN 100 81 99 79 / 20 10 30 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 79 98 78 / 10 10 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 81 / 20 30 40 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 79 92 79 / 20 20 40 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55-MM LONG TERM....55-MM AVIATION...63-KC