395
FXUS64 KEWX 281745
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Plains and portions of
  the Rio Grande Plains today from noon to 7 PM.

- Hot and dry weather is expected through the end of July.

- Rising temperatures this week may lead to increasing heat risks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today will offer another round of hot and sunny weather. Highs today
are forecast to be near to just over 100 for most of South Central
Texas. The slightly warmer air temperatures paired with dew points
in the 60s to low 70s will bring the potential for afternoon heat
indices to reach the 108F to 110F range over the Coastal Plains and
Rio Grande Plains. A Heat Advisory is in effect between noon and 7
PM today for these areas. Heat indices elsewhere are expected to
remain just under advisory criteria, but it will still be hot
nonetheless. Stay cool and hydrated and limit strenuous activities
during the afternoon.

With very similar conditions expected Wednesday, a Heat Advisory may
again be issued for the same or similar areas if the day progresses
as forecast. Air temperatures for most of South Central Texas will
again straddle or top the 100F mark with peak heat indices above
105F commonplace particularly over the Coastal and Rio Grande
Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The heat will continue this week. Ensembles show a decreasing trend
in daytime 850mb dew points over the second half of the week, a
signal of moisture mixing out more. However, air temperatures also
trend upwards during the same period, so maximum daily heat indices
may continue to stay above 105F for some areas. Overnight
temperatures are also expected to also rise slightly towards the end
of the week, with the hottest areas (urban I-35 corridor and the
lower plains) not spending much time below 80F.

Entering the weekend, the large subtropical ridge responsible for
shaping the hot and dry weather this week will shift west. The
recent model trend has moved farther west with some ensemble means
placing the core of the ridge as far west as Arizona/Nevada by
Saturday. Northerly flow on the ridge`s eastern flanks could bring a
weak front into our area Saturday or Sunday. This brings a potential
for isolated rains over the weekend. Rain amounts at this range
don`t look especially impressive given that the front is favored to
continue south at a steady pace, but a few thunderstorms are
possible. A few degrees of cooling are possible early next week, an
outcome slightly more favored by the EPS/AIFS, but the overall
picture stays hot as is typical for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Mostly VFR thru the period. FEW to SCT Cu 3-5kft thru the
afternoon with a period of MVFR likely btwn 08z-15z. SE to SW
wind 6-12kts with iso gusts of 18-22kts psbl at AUS/SAT thru 02z.
Winds should largely diminish after 02z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 100  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ193-194-208-209-
217>225-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...99