169 FXUS64 KEWX 051136 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 636 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy rains today. A Flood Watch has been issued for the Hill Country and I-35 corridor through 7 PM CDT. - Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" for the Independence Day weekend into Monday. - Turning seasonably drier and warmer this coming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 A mid level MCV and unseasonably moist airmass (05/00Z soundings showed 2.1 inch PWs at Del Rio and Corpus Christi which are in the 90 percentile plus) remain in place over our area. This feature and moist airmass linger over our area through this weekend. Forcing by this feature along with heating will generate rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Storm motion vectors show slow moving and repeat activity to enhance efficient warm rain processes. As a result, locally heavy rains with amounts of generally 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. These amounts will aggravate ongoing flooding and likely create new flooding as soils are saturated making runoff more rapid. The heaviest rains will be over the Hill Country to along and east of the I-35 corridor today. Have issued a Flood Watch through 7 PM CDT for those areas. Most models show the rains shifting to our western areas on Sunday. There is a potential for another Flood Watch for Sunday. The clouds and rain areas will conspire to keep daytime temperatures below to well below early July averages. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The mid level feature remains in close proximity to generate showers and isolated thunderstorms on Monday with a possibility of locally heavy downpours. Have expanded the slight chances to most of our area for Monday. Most models/ensembles show the Subtropical Ridge shoving the mid level feature away from our area while bringing increased subsidence and decreasing moisture levels to keep rainfall out of the forecast for the remainder of this coming week. However, an inverted trough moving in from the east may bring chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday per GFS. Later forecasts may introduce rain chances should this become a trend. Increased sunshine leads to temperatures warming to near to slightly above mid July averages. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Mainly MVFR CIGs mix to VFR by midday, then return tonight. Areas of SHRA/ISOLD TSRA will continue over the eastern Hill Country to along and east of I-35 through today, then shift to the west by Sunday. Have SHRA/VCSH this morning and PROB30s for TSRA this afternoon at the I-35 sites. A mix of CIGS/VSBYs can be expected in SHRA/TSRA. S to SE winds prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 73 92 73 / 70 20 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 73 91 72 / 60 20 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 73 91 72 / 70 20 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 81 72 88 71 / 70 30 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 75 91 75 / 10 20 40 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 72 89 72 / 70 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 85 73 87 72 / 40 20 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 73 91 72 / 70 20 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 73 93 73 / 50 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 74 90 74 / 60 20 30 10 Stinson Muni Airport 88 75 92 74 / 60 20 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar- Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Fayette-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe- Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...04 Aviation...04