161
FXUS64 KEWX 162351
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
551 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Isolated to scattered rain showers (20-60%) to favor along and
   to the east of the I-35 corridor tonight through Wednesday;
   isolated storm possible as well

-  Well above average temperatures trend Thursday into next week;
   outside from Thursday night through Friday following a modest
   cold front

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies and cool temperatures will
prevail this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 50s over
portions of the Hill Country to the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
Light southerly breezes will help for dew points to steadily rise
this afternoon into tonight. A mid-level trough axis pushing
across our region tonight into Wednesday will work in tandem with
a coastal surface trough/low along the lower to middle Texas coast
to help generate the opportunity for isolated to scattered rain
showers. Expect for the majority of the activity to favor our
southern and eastern most counties. An isolated storm could occur
here and there with a few lightning strikes. Rainfall will
generally be of a tenth or two of an inch or less, with any
isolated higher pockets of a half inch or more being connected
with any heavier shower or thunderstorm. Some mist and fog may
contribute to area dampness as well from tonight through Wednesday
morning. The thickest fog may actually trend away from the best
chances for rain showers, over the Southern Edwards Plateau,
through tomorrow morning. Rain should exit the region towards or
not long after sunset Wednesday night. With the greater dew points
and the cloudiness, the overnight lows will trend milder mostly
in the 50s. Wednesday afternoon may see highs climb up into the
low to mid 70s out west along the Rio Grande where the sun is
expected to break out the earliest while the rest that remain
under clouds, stay within the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Skies are expected to clear out by Thursday morning across the
region. With the sunny conditions, in spite of a front arriving by
or just after midday, should allow for daytime highs to warm into
the mid 70s to low 80s across the region. A breezy northerly flow
will arrive in the wake of the front for the latter half of the
afternoon and into the early evening with gusts into the 20 to 30
mph range. This with the dry air may promote some elevated fire
weather conditions. Some cold air advection does follow behind the
front but it`s nothing that is extraordinary during this time of
year. It will result in a seasonably cool Thursday night with lows
ranging from the mid 30s into the mid 40s. The day on Friday will
trend slightly cooler as well, and looks to be the coolest day
within the long term, with afternoon highs from the mid 60s into
the low 70s.

The weekend into next week then becomes much warmer and well
above average with a west-northwesterly flow aloft and a steady
south to southwesterly surface and low-level flow. Afternoon highs
are to become common from the mid 70s to the low 80s. No rain is
expected as well under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Clouds
will be most common overnight into each morning. A front could
possibly approach during Sunday into Sunday night into the Hill
Country but this front doesn`t look to have much oomph or cold air
advection with it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Flying conditions continue to rapidly deteriorate this evening
with all I-35 TAF locations in MVFR and expected to drop into IFR
and even LIFR throughout this evening as -RAs and even isolated -TSRAs
continue to work there way from west to east. Went ahead and
added Tempos for both KAUS and KSAT for the next 2 hrs due to
increased TS activity. Afterwhich expect more showers/mainly rain
conditions with fog forming later in the evening as well. Lowest
and worst flying conditions are expected overnight and into
tomorrow morning with CIGs slowly improving by the end of the
forecast period. For KDRT expect MVFR cigs before IFR cigs take
hold by 09Z however not expecting any rain or storm chances as
most activity will be east of the terminal. Cigs improve to VFR by
end of the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              55  67  60  77 /  30  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  54  68  59  78 /  30  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     54  68  59  79 /  40  30  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            52  67  55  72 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           50  73  48  80 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        53  67  58  74 /  20  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             52  72  52  80 /  30  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        54  68  59  79 /  40  30  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  69  61  77 /  40  50  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       55  68  58  79 /  30  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           56  69  58  80 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...CJM