904 FXUS64 KFWD 251844 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 144 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week. - Heat indices will approach or slightly exceed critical advisory levels today and Saturday. Additional advisories will likely be required later next week. - Limited rain chances return this afternoon, increasing through the weekend, with the greatest chances (40-60%) across the Brazos Valley Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 122 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ /Today and Saturday/ Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist today, necessitating a continuation of the heat advisory for much of the area. We`re running anywhere from 1-3 degrees above normal in many areas as of early afternoon, so many locations - including DFW Airport - should hit 100 degrees for the first time this year. A few showers may intrude in the far southeast counties of the forecast area this afternoon, while the remainder of the region remains rain free. Some modest changes are in store for Saturday as an easterly wave tracks westward out of Southeast Texas into the central core of the state. This feature will deliver an enhanced area of deep layer moisture, in addition to weak lift. As a result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop over the east central, southeast and south central portions of our forecast area by Saturday afternoon. Cloudcover associated with this wave will affect most of the remainder of North Texas Saturday, except the far northwest counties. This should constrain high temperatures from reaching 100 in most areas. Nevertheless, a modest increase in dewpoints will still enable heat indices to approach or exceed the 105 threshold by afternoon. Issued a new Heat Advisory for Saturday, but trimmed back the existing configuration of the advisory to just the far northwest and northern counties, extending southward to the I-20 corridor. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday through Friday/ An easterly wave will track westward across Texas this weekend, bringing clouds, scattered precipitation, and some modest relief from the searing daytime temperatures that are usually experienced around these parts. By early next week, this wave will be dissipating over northern Mexico, replaced by an intensifying mid level high pressure ridge which will retrograde into the Southern Plains. Strong subsidence associated with this feature will force many areas of North and Central Texas to confront daytime highs over 100 for a multi-day period next week. While extended model guidance suggests the presence of slightly drier air across the region next week, warmer air temperatures will probably compensate for the reduced humidities, thus necessitating additional heat advisories for some areas by mid week. Looking beyond the current forecast period into next weekend, there are indications that the ridge will erode somewhat and/or shift westward, with another upper wave evolving over East Texas or the Lower Mississippi Valley. This may yield some temporary relief from the hotter conditions expected through this upcoming week. Some limited rain chances may return to the region by next weekend as well. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /Issued 122 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ /18z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Saturday afternoon. An easterly wave over Southeast Texas will spawn some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in areas well to the east/southeast of Waco and the D10 TAFs. This system will creep westward Saturday, resulting in an areal expansion of convection across North Texas. Coverage will likely be sufficient to require a future inclusion of VCTS in the D10 and Waco TAFs from 18z onward Saturday. Weak surface troughing over New Mexico and West Texas will facilitate a south to southeasterly flow regime today through Saturday with speeds averaging 6 to 10 knots. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 95 79 96 79 / 5 30 0 10 0 Waco 77 92 77 93 76 / 5 40 5 10 0 Paris 76 91 75 93 76 / 5 30 5 10 0 Denton 78 97 78 96 78 / 0 20 0 10 0 McKinney 77 94 77 96 77 / 5 30 0 10 0 Dallas 79 95 79 96 79 / 5 30 0 10 0 Terrell 76 93 76 94 76 / 10 40 5 10 0 Corsicana 77 93 77 96 76 / 5 40 5 10 0 Temple 76 92 76 94 74 / 5 40 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 75 98 76 97 76 / 0 20 0 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>094-100>105- 116>120. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-106-107- 121>123-134-135-146>148-162. && $$