061
FXUS64 KAMA 231729
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1129 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday through
  the end of the week due to breezy winds and dry conditions.

- Well above average high temperatures, and potentially record
  breaking highs, are forecast through the beginning of this
  upcoming weekend.

- Cooler temperatures and very low chances for precipitation are
  forecast for the later half of this weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Dry conditions with near record breaking temperatures will continue
today and tomorrow. Weak surface low pressure is currently sitting
across the CWA and is not forecast to become stronger today so winds
will be on the lighter side around 10-15 mph or less throughout the
day. Current forecast highs are below the record highs so the
potential for records to be tied or broken today is much, much lower
than yesterday. Low level temperatures are expected to increase a
bit on Wednesday so highs should be a bit warmer. Breezy southwest
winds should also aid in warming up the temperatures so the records,
which are currently int he lower 80s, may be close to being tied or
broken tomorrow afternoon. Due to the warmer conditions and slightly
higher winds, elevated fire weather may arise once again on
Christmas Eve as the persistent dry conditions continue. Winds on
Wednesday night into Thursday morning are expected to be a bit
breezy which will aid in keeping overnight lows near the record warm
lows for Christmas day.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Upper level ridging should begin to flatten across the
central/eastern CONUS as a low pressure system continues to meander
off of the Pacific Coast of Oregon and northern California. H850
temperatures are forecast to remain well above average and combined
with breezy downsloping winds, should lead to temperatures near or
above the records for Christmas Day. The warm and breezy conditions
should continue through Saturday and elevated fire weather
conditions will be possible on each of these days. Dry conditions
are almost certain during this time period so Christmas travel
should not be affected, outside of the breezy west to southwest
winds.

There is hope for more winter like conditions on the horizon, as an
H500 low pressure system traverses across the Prairie Provinces of
Saskatchewan and Manitoba towards Central Canada late this weekend.
The southern periphery of the trough is expected to move across
the Southern Plains and should propel a cold front south sometime
on Sunday. Much cooler temperatures are forecast late this weekend
into early next week. In fact, these temperatures should even be
below average, definitely a stark contrast to what the Panhandles
have been experiencing most of the month of December.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Light winds
will eventually become southerly to southwesterly around 10 kts or
less towards the later half of this TAF cycle. High clouds should
move in over the region.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05