272 FXUS64 KAMA 120659 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 159 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Fog may develop in the eastern Panhandles this morning. 90`s return today and may linger into next week. Severe thunderstorms are possible both today and tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 112 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Tonight, fog may develop in the eastern Panhandles and linger until the mid morning. Confidence is low as to how far west the fog can make it, but a low chance still exist for the central Panhandles to be affected as well. Isolated thunderstorm chances exist this evening mainly in the western combined Panhandles. Storms that can make it from New Mexico could become severe and will be capable of producing strong damaging winds. Downbursts are a possibility as well given the large DCAPE environment and inverted V soundings forecast tomorrow afternoon. Highs will start to rise to the 90`s for some places, namely in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Mid to upper 80`s are expected for the rest of the CWA. Friday, another round of storms is forecast to move in from the west. Higher storm coverage is forecast, and a later start time is expected. Thunderstorms may not enter our CWA until closer to sunset. A favorable storm environment exists for discrete and semi-discrete convection. These types of storms will pose a large hail and damaging wind threat. The tornado threat is very low since these storms are expected to be high based. Thunderstorm activity may also continue into the night time hours and into early Saturday morning. Low to mid 90`s are anticipated area wide for highs tomorrow. Temperatures in the Palo Duro Canyon will be approaching 100 degrees; and with high 60`s dewpoints in the forecast, heat index values will likely meet or exceed 100 degrees. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 112 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The upper level high begins to move over our CWA this weekend, allowing for above average temperatures to transpire for the first few days of the extended. The global models are now bringing a trough into the region by mid next week. This will aid in the suppression of the ridge, and depending on how far south the trough travels, thunderstorm chances may continue for the first few days of the new week. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 TAFs should remain VFR through the 06Z TAF period. However, there`s a low chance for fog to to enter AMA this morning. Most guidance does not bring the fog to any terminal; but if the fog development over performs, IFR conditions may enter AMA and possibly GUY. Amendments will be made if this scenario unfolds. A low chance for thunderstorms also exists today for all sites, but since we have low confidence for any impacts to the terminals this evening, no mentions of thunder where made. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55