653
FXUS64 KAMA 231714
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1114 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

- Fog and dense fog this morning in the eastern panhandles.
  Potential fog for Monday night into Tuesday with possible
  further western extent.

- Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow with low clouds the next
  two mornings.

- Low precipitation chances return late Christmas Day into
  Thursday, but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Increasing low level moisture and upper level moisture today,
along with a weak cold front are expected to keep daytime
temperatures closer to normal for this afternoon. An upper level
shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Southern Great Plains
tonight into tomorrow. A leeside surface low is developing over
SE CO and NE NM at this time. This low will bring up some low
level moisture into the eastern combined Panhandles on the eastern
periphery of the low. Increasing low clouds are already being
seen on satellite as of this writing. There is a concern that some
dense fog may develop between now and the morning commute across
the eastern combined Panhandles this morning.

Tonight, chances for fog return to the eastern combined Panhandles
once again with a small potential for fog reaching as far west as
Amarillo. The aforementioned surface low will dip south today and
begin to move east across portions of West Texas and the far
southern TX Panhandle tonight. This will give a chance for some
wrap around moisture to travel further west. Overall lift from the
upper level shortwave tonight will be weak and a dry low to mid
layer are expected. This will leave a moist surface layer without
lift to create any rain. However, this is likely to lead to some
misty or foggy conditions overnight into Tuesday morning. The
increase in moisture Tue morning is expected to keep temperatures
in the lower 40s for the southeastern TX Panhandle.

Cool conditions will continue tomorrow with upsloping winds, N
and E, with skies clearing out from west to east during the day.
Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer with highs making it into
the mid to upper 50s. With an upper level ridge progged to build
in over the area Tuesday night and not so calm winds, temperatures
area only expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s across the
southeastern two thirds of the FA. The NW third may barely get
below freezing around 31 for Wed morning.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A breezy and slightly warmer than normal Christmas is in store for
the combined Panhandles. A system will potentially bring a cold
light rain to the area the day after Christmas. After Friday,
conditions look to warm to well above normal for the weekend once
again.

For Christmas, a short lived upper level ridge will set up over
the FA and Southern Great Plains ahead of low pressure system that
should be around the Four Corners Region by this time. This low
pressure system will bring with it some higher winds aloft leading
to breezy and possibly gusty winds for the Panhandles on
Christmas Day. Have stayed with the NBM values for now, but there
may be room to come up in the winds for Wed. For now looking at
southwest winds between 15 and 20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. The
ridge and southwesterly winds ahead of the system is expected to
warm conditions to mid to upper 50s.

Come Thursday, depending on the path the aforementioned upper low
takes, portions of the combined Panhandles could see some light
rain and slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday. Have stayed
with the NBM PoPs for now, which give a widespread 30 to 40
percent chance across the entire combined Panhandles after
midnight Thu. Some deterministic models like the GFS still have
the low travel in such a way that dry slots a good portion of the
combined Panhandles. This means no measurable rain for the
central to southwestern combined Panhandles to include Amarillo.
QPF is still a bit uncertain as well, with measurable rain being
anywhere from a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch.

This main closed low should exit the area Thu night. However,
model solutions diverge at this time with Fri being a bit
uncertain. A subsequent shortwave or two could potentially try to
linger some light precipitation chances for Fri. Overall though,
upper level ridging should bring well above normal temps and dry
conditions back to the FA by Sat or Sun. The NBM gives a high of
66 for Amarillo Sunday afternoon at this time.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A weather system is impacting the panhandles and all terminals for
the next several days. This afternoon the fog layer has lifted to
a low stratus deck which is wavering between MVFR and IFR. This
deck is currently at KGUY and has a high chance of spreading to
KAMA. KDHT has only a low chance of seeing this deck so is
currently VFR in the TAF. During the evening the stratus deck will
descend becoming a fog layer again with low vertical visibility
conditions. IFR to VLIFR may occur at KAMA during the overnight
hours in the fog layer. Conditions should marginally improve to
MVFR going into later morning of Tuesday. KGUY has a higher chance
of being on the edge of the fog layer so the current forecast
reflects MVFR conditions overnight, this could change to IFR or
worse if the fog layer fully moves over KGUY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                35  56  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  32  56  32  55 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              28  56  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  36  58  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              29  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  34  57  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               40  58  37  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 27  56  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  29  55  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                32  58  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                39  55  36  55 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   37  55  36  55 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                42  57  37  56 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              43  58  38  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98