272
FXUS64 KAMA 120659
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
159 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Fog may develop in the eastern Panhandles this morning.

90`s return today and may linger into next week.

Severe thunderstorms are possible both today and tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Tonight, fog may develop in the eastern Panhandles and linger
until the mid morning. Confidence is low as to how far west the
fog can make it, but a low chance still exist for the central
Panhandles to be affected as well.

Isolated thunderstorm chances exist this evening mainly in the
western combined Panhandles. Storms that can make it from New
Mexico could become severe and will be capable of producing strong
damaging winds. Downbursts are a possibility as well given the
large DCAPE environment and inverted V soundings forecast tomorrow
afternoon. Highs will start to rise to the 90`s for some places,
namely in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Mid to upper 80`s are expected
for the rest of the CWA.

Friday, another round of storms is forecast to move in from the
west. Higher storm coverage is forecast, and a later start time is
expected. Thunderstorms may not enter our CWA until closer to
sunset. A favorable storm environment exists for discrete and
semi-discrete convection. These types of storms will pose a large
hail and damaging wind threat. The tornado threat is very low
since these storms are expected to be high based. Thunderstorm
activity may also continue into the night time hours and into
early Saturday morning. Low to mid 90`s are anticipated area wide
for highs tomorrow. Temperatures in the Palo Duro Canyon will be
approaching 100 degrees; and with high 60`s dewpoints in the
forecast, heat index values will likely meet or exceed 100
degrees.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The upper level high begins to move over our CWA this weekend,
allowing for above average temperatures to transpire for the first
few days of the extended. The global models are now bringing a
trough into the region by mid next week. This will aid in the
suppression of the ridge, and depending on how far south the
trough travels, thunderstorm chances may continue for the first
few days of the new week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

TAFs should remain VFR through the 06Z TAF period. However,
there`s a low chance for fog to to enter AMA this morning. Most
guidance does not bring the fog to any terminal; but if the fog
development over performs, IFR conditions may enter AMA and
possibly GUY. Amendments will be made if this scenario unfolds. A
low chance for thunderstorms also exists today for all sites, but
since we have low confidence for any impacts to the terminals this
evening, no mentions of thunder where made.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55