715 FXUS64 KOHX 050530 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 - Several chances for severe weather into the weekend, with the main hazards being damaging winds and heavy rainfall. - Unsettled pattern continues into the work week, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.&& .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Clouds are encroaching on middle Tennessee from the west and the southeast this evening on satellite. Thus, bringing an end to the quieter weather we have seen the past few days and ushering in a more active weather pattern. Thursday will definitely feel more humid, as a surface front drops south. This will increase moisture return into the area, and increase our rain chances. Currently, the SPC has placed a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1/5) in the area roughly west of I-65. Multicell clusters along the boundary seem to be the most likely storm mode, and the main hazard on Thursday, and all weekend really, is damaging wind. A brief break from rain and thunder will come Thursday night, before the bigger severe threat of the weekend kicks in. Friday, the surface front has had plenty of time to work its magic and we will have sufficient instability present in middle Tennessee. MLCAPE from 1500 - nearly 2000 J/kg in guidance and PWATs nearing 2" means thunderstorms that develop could produce heavy rainfall in addition to the damaging wind threat forecast soundings are showing for the area. With bulk shear in the 20 - 35 knot range, thunderstorms will have no problem sustaining themselves to strong or severe levels. Some guidance has the remnant MCV of an Oklahoma MCS entering the area Friday morning, but it`s hard to say how intense it will be or if it will just provide extra forcing. SPC has us in an areawide slight risk (2/5) for severe weather Friday, so make sure you have a severe weather plan if you plan to be outside or away from home. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Clouds are encroaching on middle Tennessee from the west and the southeast this evening on satellite. Thus, bringing an end to the quieter weather we have seen the past few days and ushering in a more active weather pattern. Thursday will definitely feel more humid, as a surface front drops south. This will increase moisture return into the area, and increase our rain chances. Currently, the SPC has placed a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1/5) in the area roughly west of I-65. Multicell clusters along the boundary seem to be the most likely storm mode, and the main hazard on Thursday, and all weekend really, is damaging wind. A brief break from rain and thunder will come Thursday night, before the bigger severe threat of the weekend kicks in. Friday, the surface front has had plenty of time to work its magic and we will have sufficient instability present in middle Tennessee. MLCAPE from 1500 - nearly 2000 J/kg in guidance and PWATs nearing 2" means thunderstorms that develop could produce heavy rainfall in addition to the damaging wind threat forecast soundings are showing for the area. With bulk shear in the 20 - 35 knot range, thunderstorms will have no problem sustaining themselves to strong or severe levels. Some guidance has the remnant MCV of an Oklahoma MCS entering the area Friday morning, but it`s hard to say how intense it will be or if it will just provide extra forcing. SPC has us in an areawide slight risk (2/5) for severe weather Friday, so make sure you have a severe weather plan if you plan to be outside or away from home. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 The weekend continues with the possibility for severe weather Saturday. As the surface front that started it all lingers, more thunderstorms are possible on Saturday south of I-40. Once again, damaging winds will be the main hazard out of these storms if they turn severe. Once Sunday comes, a shortwave will push the stationary front out of our area. But that doesn`t mean the rain will stop. Upper level troughing across the eastern US will continue the rainy pattern, with nearly daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through mid-week. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s through mid-week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A surface boundary is slowly approaching Middle Tennessee from the northwest, with already convection showing up on the fringes of the OHX radar scope. TAFs are VFR until Thursday afternoon, when convection is expected to start developing in areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. Best chances are going to be at CKV, with lesser chances of TS at BNA/MQY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 72 88 72 / 40 20 100 60 Clarksville 86 70 85 71 / 60 20 100 60 Crossville 83 65 82 65 / 20 20 80 70 Columbia 88 70 88 70 / 30 10 100 60 Cookeville 83 67 83 67 / 30 20 100 70 Jamestown 83 65 81 65 / 30 20 90 70 Lawrenceburg 86 69 87 69 / 20 10 90 50 Murfreesboro 88 69 88 69 / 30 20 90 60 Waverly 86 69 85 69 / 50 20 100 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Rose