667
FXUS64 KOHX 191717
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1117 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

- After a cool Friday, temperatures will rebound for the weekend
  with highs in the 50s.

- Low to medium shower chances return Monday and Tuesday. No
  hazardous weather expected.

- Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look warm and dry with highs in
  the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1054 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A potent cold front moved through Middle TN Thursday evening with
heavy downpours, widespread gusty winds, and pockets of wind
damage. Thankfully, conditions were quiet today. Skies were sunny
and temperatures were cool, with highs expected to top out in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. A west breeze up to 20 mph was making it
feel a little cooler.

Tonight into Saturday the center of dry surface high pressure
will move to our east as northwest upper level flow becomes zonal.
This will set the stage for a seasonably cool night followed by
strong warming with gusty south winds on Saturday. Highs will warm
well into the 50s, or around 15 degrees higher than today.

A weak front will push through the area Saturday night. Model have
been trending drier with this front and our latest forecast will
show no mentionable pops. Perhaps a few sprinkles will accompany
the front. It will bring in a new air mass from the north with
slightly cooler but near normal temperatures for Sunday. Winds for
Sunday will come out of the north around 10 mph- much less gusty
than Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1054 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A shortwave disturbance will move across the region in the zonal
flow Monday and Tuesday. Most of the energy with this system will
stay to our north, but it will set up a broad warm, moist
advection pattern for us that will result in mild temps with
scattered light showers (20 to 40 percent rain chances).

After the shortwave passes, a ridge will build up bringing warm
conditions for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs will reach
the 60s with some lower 70s. This is around 20 degrees above
normal! The record high for Christmas at BNA is 76 from 2021 and
2016.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions this taf cycle. Westerly winds will gradually shift
out of the south through this evening with sustained speeds
between 5-7 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  30  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    43  30  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     39  26  53  34 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       45  30  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     39  28  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      37  27  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   45  30  57  38 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   45  29  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        43  30  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Baggett