276 FXUS64 KOHX 261721 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1221 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 - Temperatures will increase next week, approaching record values on Tuesday. - An unsettled pattern will return next week with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 An upper level trough and surface low are tacking into the Northeast pushing a cold front through Middle TN. As the front works south through the region we will see clearing skies behind the front and will have a nice afternoon and evening. Highs will be a touch cooler today with them coolest in the north with lower 70s and mid to upper 70s south. Mid to high level clouds will work back into the area this evening and overnight as a short wave spins around the long wave ridge set up over the central part of the country. This will keep fog chances low tonight with temperatures falling into the 50s. Upper level ridge will be building in from the west on Sunday with surface high pressure sitting to our north. This will bring great weather with highs in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Overall we will continue to see quiet weather for the start of the week as the apex of the ridge sets up over us and high pressure pushes to our east. This will bring southerly flow and warm us back into the 80s. A weak short wave spinning around the ridge may bring a low chance for shower on Monday but the chances look very low. A robust short wave trough will then track out of the northern Rockies with a surface low deepening over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This will bring active weather to the Midwest Monday and push a cold front south into our area Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles favor stalling the cold front out right near the TN/KY boarder but there is some uncertainty on far south the front will make it. The better instability and dynamics is expected to remain to our north but we will still see 800-1300 j/kg of CAPE build in during the afternoon. 0-6 km shear will be 25-35 knots and lapse rates don`t look awful. If the forcing with the front pushes far enough south we could see a few stronger storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, the best chances would be north towards the TN/KY boarder. The front will linger across the region on Wednesday likely setting up just to our north. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. As we head into Thursday a trough will come out of the Four Corners region and that will lift the stationary front north and then push a cold front into our area Thursday evening into Thursday night. Parameters don`t look bad for some stronger storms mainly over the western part of the area but this is still many days out and a lot can change with timing and location of things. The front may linger over eastern areas into Friday afternoon keeping showers in the forecast. Upper level ridge will bring the return of quiet weather next weekend. Highs will be in the 80s throughout the week with some cooling back into the 70s Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 MVFR Clouds are slowly clearing out and expect SKC to SCT VFR clouds to linger at BNA and MQY through the afternoon, but sticking around for SRB and CSV until 00Z. Overnight, skies will be clear with winds becoming northeasterly by 12Z, with speeds decreasing slightly to around 5kts or less. Models indicate some mid to high clouds will return late in the TAF period, but remaning VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 53 75 58 87 / 0 10 10 20 Clarksville 52 72 56 86 / 0 10 10 10 Crossville 46 73 54 79 / 0 0 10 20 Columbia 52 75 57 85 / 0 10 10 20 Cookeville 49 73 56 81 / 0 10 20 20 Jamestown 46 72 53 80 / 0 10 20 20 Lawrenceburg 51 75 58 84 / 0 0 10 10 Murfreesboro 51 75 57 86 / 0 10 10 20 Waverly 52 72 57 87 / 0 10 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....05