193 FXUS64 KOHX 041625 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1125 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Overall quiet weather for Independence Day and the weekend, but becoming hotter each day with increasing humidity. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return on Monday and persist through the upcoming work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Satellite showing clear skies across the mid-state, which will continue into the evening this Independence Day. Expect clear skies for the festivities, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s today. As the ridge weakens into the weekend, moisture will return with southerly flow into the mid-south. This will lead to triple digit heat indices into next week, though we are expecting them to remain below advisory criteria. The increase in PWATs to around 1.75" also means that an isolated shower cannot be ruled out on the weekend, but that chance is very low (<10%). && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Mid-level troughing will drop south into the week, allowing disturbances to have more of an effect on middle Tennessee through the mid week. A ridge in the desert SW will then flatten, allowing the trough to dip further south at the end of the work week. With further moisture advection into the area and these disturbances traversing across the Ohio Valley then across the state, showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely through the remainder of the period. With the usual caveat of precipitation amounts being higher in thunderstorms, daily accumulations look pretty light right now each day in the work week. Total accumulations through Thursday continue to be less than one inch in the guidance, with a 20 - 40% chance of accumulations greater than 1". As for temperatures, they will return to near normal, which is still in the upper 80s and 90s so the warmth continues. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Light north winds become south after 12z Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 95 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 93 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 89 66 89 67 / 0 0 10 0 Columbia 93 70 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 10 0 Lawrenceburg 92 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 94 71 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 92 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Cravens