599
FXUS64 KOHX 171107
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
507 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 505 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- High chance for rain and a few storms on Thursday. Very low
  chance for severe storms with gusty winds during the afternoon
  and evening.

- Above-normal temperatures are favored through the Christmas
  holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A shortwave is moving through OK and TX this evening, allowing cloud
cover to expand into Middle TN. At the surface, southerly winds
continue, but moisture advection is weak. Today`s 00Z sounding shows
a very dry atmosphere both at the surface and aloft with the PWAT
coming in at a piddly 0.32 inches (near the 25th percentile for
the date). Moisture advection will continue to be weak through
tomorrow so that by the time the aforementioned shortwave swings
through, our rain chances for Wednesday are low in the 10-20%
range. Nothing impactful is expected with any rain amounts
amounting to just a couple hundredths at best. Otherwise, the
warming trend continues with highs warming into the low to mid-50s
as clouds continue to stream into the area.

On Thursday, a strong upper-level low approaches from the Plains. A
very strong jet will be associated with this system with 500mb winds
of 80-100 knots and 50-60 knot winds found at 850mb. Moisture
advection will be stronger with PWATs nearing an inch which is near
the 90th percentile for mid-December. This moisture influx leads to
high rain chances (90-100%) during the afternoon and evening, but
like has been communicated in previous discussion, instability
continues to be the limiting factor for severe weather. Forecast
soundings continue to show little instability for Thursday, and most
model guidance shows CAPE values less than 100 J/kg. NBM
probabilities of exceeding 100 J/kg is low at 10-30% and mainly
confined to southern Middle TN. So the messaging continues to be a
very low severe weather threat with the main threat being gusty
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A strong cold front from Thursday`s system will track east through
Middle TN that evening, giving us a cooldown for Friday. Highs on
Friday will generally be in the 40s. This cooldown will be brief as
temperatures warm right back up into the 50s for the weekend and
into early next week. With a troughing pattern setting up over the
eastern CONUS next week, embedded shortwaves will keep low rain
chances in the forecast Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period with passing mid-level
clouds throughout the day. Lower cigs will build in for western
areas overnight but are expected to remain above MVFR levels.
Southerly winds up to 7 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  44  62  31 /  20  10 100  60
Clarksville    56  45  61  28 /  10   0 100  30
Crossville     50  37  55  28 /  10  10  90  90
Columbia       55  44  60  31 /  20  10 100  60
Cookeville     51  39  58  28 /  10  10  90  90
Jamestown      51  37  57  28 /  10   0  90  90
Lawrenceburg   53  42  60  31 /  20  10  90  70
Murfreesboro   54  42  60  31 /  10  10 100  70
Waverly        54  45  58  28 /  10  10 100  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Mueller