622 FXUS64 KOHX 162309 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 609 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 607 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 - Next chance of widespread rains may not be until Sunday night or Monday but we are keeping an eye on Saturday for a conditional storm threat. && .UPDATE... Issued at 607 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Made a couple of tweaks to hourly dew points as there`s a ton of dry air in place across Middle TN, however everything else is on track. Looking for a nice, quiet evening across the mid-state. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Surface high pressure is sliding across the region today, so we are enjoying continued abundant sunshine with considerably lighter winds than yesterday. The atmosphere across Middle Tennessee remains quite dry. Precipitable Water from the 1530Z ACARS sounding at BNA comes in at 0.287", for a PWAT+ value of 43 (observed PWAT is 43% of the daily mean value). Current dewpoints are largely in the upper 20s to low 30s. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today than on Tuesday, and tomorrow`s will be even warmer, despite the addition of a few more clouds. A weak shortwave will ripple across the mid state on Thursday. The deepest moisture looks to stay north of us, but we can`t completely rule out a stray shower or two north of I-40. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Temperatures will continue to warm on Friday, and here`s where readings will level off for the foreseeable future. Highs and lows going forward will stay remarkably even at least through next week. Rain chances may return Saturday and Saturday night as a surface boundary stalls out to our north and west. The NBM gives us better probabilities of convection Sunday, Sunday night and early Monday as the boundary makes slow progress. While the SPC hints at some severe storm risk to the immediate W/NW of Middle Tennessee on Saturday and Sunday, the risk of severe storms across the mid state remains very low. And so do QPF values. The 13Z NBM gives BNA an 83% probability of measurable rainfall from Sunday morning until early Tuesday (48-hr QPF), but only a 39% of 1/2" or more. So while we find ourselves transitioning to a wet pattern by the start of next week, there doesn`t look to be any sort of "roller- coaster" of temperature swings. Looking farther ahead, both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center favor above normal rainfall and above normal temperatures across Middle Tennessee. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions continue through the taf period. Winds are light and variable and will remain so through the overnight hours. Southerly winds increase by 18Z with sustained speeds 10-12 kts and gusts between 20-25 kts through tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 50 78 61 84 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 49 76 61 82 / 10 20 0 0 Crossville 41 69 54 78 / 0 10 0 0 Columbia 48 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 45 70 58 80 / 0 10 0 0 Jamestown 41 68 54 79 / 0 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 48 77 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 46 77 60 83 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 51 77 62 81 / 10 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett