575 FXUS64 KMRX 082324 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 724 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Key Messages: 1. A low risk for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are the main threat. 2. Dry on Tuesday behind a cold front. Discussion: Convection is starting to increase across eastern KY, NE TN, and SW VA, closer to the midlevel shortwave trough, but deep development is limited as midlevel dry air is stunting thunderstorm growth. Activity through the afternoon and evening will be mainly north of I- 40, as satellite shows the cap to be more effective to the south of I-40. Showers should end near sunset as heating is lost and the shortwave trough passes to the east. Overnight, we will likely see low clouds form again, similar to the past few nights, especially in northern sections that receive rain this afternoon/evening. Monday will be another day with a risk of strong to severe storms. A trough over the Great Lakes will be pushing a cold front down towards the Mid South, and the trough will pick up an MCV from today`s Red River OK/TX storms. This will trigger showers and thunderstorms to our west and southwest in the morning and early afternoon. Ahead of these storms, the environment will have plenty of deep layer speed shear with modest MLCAPE, ranging from near 2000 J/kg in our southern sections to under 1000 J/kg north. Working against the storms will be poor lapse rates and dry air in the midlevels of the atmosphere that may stunt overall storm intensity and limit hail growth potential. A notable feature in forecast soundings tomorrow is an inverted-V profile in the low levels, indicating good mixing that should help storm downdrafts bring winds aloft to the surface, enhanced by evaporative cooling. Southern and western sections have the highest severe potential, with the expected timing between 4 pm and 9 pm EDT. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms may continue overnight associated with the passage of the surface cold front and 850 mb trough. Once the front clears through the area, drier air will begin filtering in behind it. Most locations will be dry on Tuesday, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the mountains. Temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and the drier air mass with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s will make for a very nice day. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Key Messages: 1. Warm and mostly dry mid-week, though a few showers and storms cannot be ruled out south of I-40 Thursday afternoon. 2. Shower and storm chances become more widespread each afternoon Friday into the weekend. There will be some potential for stronger storms with heavy downpours. Discussion: High pressure will be centered over the southern Appalachians Wednesday. Increased influence of subsidence aloft and rising H5 heights will promote dry conditions among a warming trend. By Thursday afternoon upper level flow will be quasi-zonal locally as a weak H5 low becomes cutoff atop the Southern Plains. Improved moisture advection will promote the return of unsettled weather as we reach the end of the week and into the weekend. Coverage and precip efficiency may be more limited Thursday/Fri as it takes time for the moisture to build in, however, the aforementioned H5 low will be drifting closer to the southern Mississippi River Valley and PWAT will rise to above normal values by Saturday. The likelihood of afternoon showers and storms will increase into the weekend as a result. Latest GFS soundings depict tall and skinny CAPE profiles during this time as well. Flooding issues could eventually become a concern but do not want to boast too much confidence this far out due to the lack of upper-level support. Precip loading could lead to a few stronger storms at times as well. Nonetheless, CPC has encompassed us with a slight risk of heavy rainfall in the 8-14 Day Hazard Outlook graphic. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 723 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Low chance of TS with the showers moving through Northeast TN, and storms will exit the first couple of hours of this TAF cycle. Low confidence on fog formation at KTRI if the winds go calm as is typical. Line of strong storms expected at the tail end of this TAF cycle, so have not gone into details quite yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 86 65 84 / 10 70 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 85 64 82 / 10 60 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 84 63 82 / 10 70 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 82 63 79 / 30 30 80 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DGS LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...