925
FXUS64 KMEG 100951
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
451 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 448 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

- Dry and seasonal temperatures will prevail today and Wednesday.

- Humidity and thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and
  continue into the weekend. At this time the chances for
  organized severe thunderstorm development is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

00Z upper air analysis showed a longwave trough over the eastern
CONUS, downstream of a broad ridge over the western states.
Under northwest flow aloft, slightly drier midcontinental surface
high pressure had spread into the northern half of the Midsouth.
Early morning surface dewpoints ranged from around 60F over
northwest TN to the lower 70s over north MS. Weak winds and recent
rainfall was resulting in patchy fog over parts of north MS where
skies had cleared following overnight thunderstorms.

Through the rest of today, drier air will make additional
southward progress through the Midsouth. Highs will reach seasonal
readings in the mid and upper 80s with the aid of strong June
sunshine.

The upper level pattern will deamplify by Wednesday, with a zonal
polar jet across the northern CONUS and a southern branch cut-off
low over the southern plains. Gulf moisture will fuel showers and
thunderstorms over east TX and LA on Wednesday. By Thursday, 70s
dewpoints will return to the Midsouth. Shortwave ridging downstream
of the upper low may limit thunderstorm coverage and organization
potential Thursday afternoon. Rain chances will increase Friday
as the upper low lifts into the Ozarks, displacing the ridging to
our east. But limited deep layer shear will continue to limit QPF
and severe storms chances. Highs on Friday will be dependent on
cloud cover and thunderstorm outflow. Otherwise, highs appear
likely to reach 90F over most of the Midsouth Friday afternoon.

Headed into the weekend, the upper low will stall over the Ohio
River Valley, with a shear axis extending southwestward through
the lower MS River Valley. Warm and humid conditions at the
surface and the shear axis aloft will provide favorable conditions
for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend,
particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF
cycle. The exception may be near TUP where MVFR FG/BR is possible
late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Northwest winds 3-7 kts
tonight and tomorrow, variable less than 3 kts tomorrow night.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS