394
FXUS64 KMEG 170501
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1101 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025


- A warming trend is expected through Thursday, with scattered showers
  beginning early Wednesday and high temperatures in the mid-50s
  to low-60s.

- A low risk of severe thunderstorms exists Thursday, followed by
  a significant temperature drop with subfreezing lows by Friday
  morning.

- Mild temperatures will return for the weekend and are expected to
  persist through at least the middle of next week. At this time,
  it appears that above normal temperatures will prevail on
  Christmas Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A mild weather pattern appears in store throughout the next 7 to
10 days, following our recent Arctic cold snap last weekend.
Friday remains the exception to the mild pattern, but temperatures
will quickly recover over the weekend and warm gradually from
there.

Short and medium range model guidance remained consistent in
showing a deep northern branch upper low lifting across the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region on Thursday. A polar cold front
will follow this feature across the central and northern Great
Plains, while some Pacific air is directed toward the southern
Great Plains. For the Midsouth, this will result in a one day
cold snap - roughly a 15 to 20 degree drop with highs in the 40s,
lows in the 20s.

With the aid of steep midlevel height falls, the cold front will
surge quickly through the Midsouth Thursday afternoon - just
inside the window of the 48 hour CAMs. Their solution is similar
to the earlier LREF and deterministic ECMWF and and GFS, showing
prefrontal deep layer shear around 60 knots and MUCAPE below
200 J/kg. This concurs with depicted soundings, which show a 100-
150mb deep moist thermal inversion above the surface, overtopped
by nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates. Given the strong
kinematics, this system bears watching. At this time the modest
CAPE is correctly depicted in model consensus, it would limit our
severe threat on Thursday.

The upper level pattern will quickly transition to zonal by
Friday evening, with low level southerly return flow underway
over MO and much of AR. Under this zonal flow a low level
baroclinic zone - stalled frontal boundary - may be draped east
to west across the Midsouth on Sunday. A few warm air advection
showers are indicated by ECMWF and GFS guidance near this surface
boundary, likely aided by the right entrance region of an upper
jet core across the OH River Valley.

Other than Sunday`s rain chances, next week appears predominately
dry at this time. Medium range guidance continues to amplify an
upper ridge over the central CONUS, with 500mb heights around
582 dam over the Midsouth on Christmas Day. A quite impressive
17 dam over climatology for this time of year.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A warm front will bring light, isolated showers across JBR and
MEM shortly before sunrise through late morning. Following
showers, conditions look to degrade from VFR to MVFR for much of
the afternoon and into the early evening hours. South/southwest
winds will remain largely sub 10 kts through much of the TAF
period. South winds will gust up to 20 kts overnight Thursday
ahead of a cold front.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Minimum relative humidity values will increase substantially on
Wednesday as Gulf air moves into the region. A few light showers
will occur Wednesday, followed by high chances of wetting
rainfall on Thursday. A warming trend will begin this weekend and
persist into early next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...PWB