812 FXUS64 KOHX 100536 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1236 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - Dense fog through 8 am across all of Middle TN. Use caution on area roadways tonight. - Temperatures will warm through the work week, with the possibility of hitting 90 degrees entering the forecast once again. - Diurnal thunderstorm activity picks up later in the week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Looking over surface observations across the region, I don`t see it indicated in the wind fields, but it`s obvious by the dew points that the frontal boundary has entered our northwest counties. Just ahead of that boundary, we`re seeing a few showers still, but dew points in the low 60s have already registered at CKV. The frontal boundary will slowly progress across the area tonight likely so slowly that the drier air will take awhile to overtake the whole CWA. Because of this, as rains end in a few hours and clouds clear out, dense fog will become more and more likely. A few spots are already seeing reduced visibilities and I expect widespread fog before sunrise. For this reason, I`ve gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory through 8 am. The next couple of days are going to be fantastic across the mid- state. I can`t rule out a rogue shower on the northern Plateau tomorrow afternoon, but by far, most everyone will remain dry over the next 48 to 60 hours. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 80s each day and with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s, each day should be relatively comfortable outside. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 By Thursday, as a sub-tropical high sits over Florida and a weak upper trough swings through the Great Lakes, we here in Middle TN will be in a upper pattern zone without really any drive. These general weaknesses in the upper level pattern will present an opportunity for us to see diurnally driven thunderstorms each afternoon right through the start of next week. Each of these days will be characterized with poor lapse rates and very little wind shear, so any storms we get will be very much of the summertime- variety. That means any storm that develops will run the risk of strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. In addition, afternoon temperatures will climb into the low 90s during the second half of the week and by Friday, dew points will climb into the upper 60s and low 70s. This means very warm and extremely humid conditions. If you have outdoor plans in Middle TN this weekend, you will want to keep a close eye on the forecast as storms will be around during the afternoon and evening hours each day and you will want to prepared for these warm and humid conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 TAFs reflect deteriorating conditions across Middle TN airfields overnight with fog developing behind exiting clouds. This is already impacting CKV and creeping up on MQY as I write this. Guidance suggests IFR/LIFR vis at all terminals, as well as IFR/LIFR cig potential mixed in. I`ve approached this with TEMPOs due to observation variability so far. It appears the 09-12z timeframe will be the worst overall timeframe for IFR/LIFR conditions, including BNA. Conditions should improve fairly quickly after sunrise, so VFR makes a return in the TAFs 13-14z. Winds favor a W to NW direction at 5-8 kts during the afternoon with a scattering of cumulus clouds. VFR remains forecast through the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 82 60 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 79 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 85 60 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 80 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 80 56 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 84 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 85 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 82 59 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TNZ005>011- 023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Sizemore