913 FXUS64 KOHX 110519 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1219 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 - Advisory level river flooding is hanging tough at Dover and Clifton, but levels are gradually falling from earlier this week. - Showers, maybe a rumble of thunder on Friday. Small hail possible. No severe expected. - Great weekend ahead. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Today proved to be a very interesting day. While we`re still lacking a sounding from OHX due to hardware issues, ACARS soundings highlighted an inverted-V setup with plenty of CAPE in the hail growth zone and relatively dry conditions in the boundary layer. This set the stage for copious damaging straight line winds and hail, and we got it. Between the 59 mph measured at John C. Tune and the 61 mph at BNA, scattered trees and power lines fell across a good portion of Middle TN with hail in just about every storm. The largest report was of 1.75 inches in Portland. Fortunately, we`ve put that stuff to bed for the night and we`ve been left with mostly clear skies. We`ve got a great weekend ahead, but not before we see some more showers on Friday as another impulse rounds the base of the longwave trough over the eastern half of the country. Forecast soundings aren`t supportive of severe weather as shear values are barely supportive of thunderstorms, but with sharp lapse rates and a little bit of CAPE, the continued cold air aloft could support some small hail late in the morning and into the afternoon hours. Rains should come to an end in Middle TN before sunset Friday. As I said, we`ve got a great weekend on tap. Saturday will be a little cool, but the boundary layer flow switches to the south on Sunday and temperatures should climb into the low 70s with quite a bit of sun. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Our next chance of rain comes into the area Monday evening as an upper low in the Great Lakes region drags a front through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The QPF signal isn`t impressive with the front, but with 50-60 kts of deep layer shear and at least marginal instability, some thunder will be possible. Details are sketchy enough to not mention any severe possibility at this point. After Monday night`s frontal passage, we can expect tranquil conditions with very pleasant temperatures until Thursday when most long range guidance suggest yet another round of showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 VFR conditions prevail at forecast time, but MVFR to IFR cigs will arrive shortly after sunrise Friday morning at all mid-state terminals as a weak impulse slips through the area. This impulse should be enough for a PROB30 at CSV/SRB, but isolated enough to preclude from mentioning at BNA/MQY/CKV. This may need to be adjusted by morning. Winds will be less than 10 kts overnight, then become breezy by late morning as this impulse moves through the area. Northerly gusts of 15 to 20 kts likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 38 63 41 / 40 0 0 0 Clarksville 61 36 62 40 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 55 33 57 34 / 50 0 0 0 Columbia 61 37 62 37 / 50 0 0 0 Cookeville 55 35 57 36 / 50 0 0 0 Jamestown 55 33 57 34 / 40 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 60 37 62 37 / 40 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 60 37 62 36 / 50 0 0 0 Waverly 61 37 62 41 / 30 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Unger