850
FXUS64 KOHX 230443
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1043 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1037 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Low chance for light showers through Tuesday. No severe weather
  is expected.

- Above-normal temperatures in store for Christmas Day with
  temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- A cold front will move through this weekend, bringing
  widespread rain and temperatures back to near-normal values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Above normal warmth continues across Middle TN thanks to a large
area of high pressure building to our west along with southerly
surface winds. Despite these southerly winds, low-levels remain dry
with dewpoint depressions of 15 to 25 degrees. This can also be seen
on the 00Z sounding where despite a PWAT of 0.91 inches, there is
still a pronounced dry layer at the surface. So despite light
showers showing up on radar, it`s unlikely this is amounting to much
more than a few sprinkles. Low rain chances will continue through
Tuesday as a disturbance continues to track through the area.
Dewpoints will improve through Tuesday, reaching into the 50s and
near 60 by the afternoon. This may allow for something more than a
few sprinkles, but don`t expect anything substantial as far as rain
goes. The chance of getting more than 0.15 inches is around 30-50%.
Otherwise, the warming trend continues as highs reach into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Low rain chances persist into Christmas Eve with another disturbance
embedded in the periphery of the ridge. Nothing hazardous is
expected with again just a few hundredths being managed out of any
showers that develop. Temperatures will continue their upward trend,
warming into the upper-60s and near 70. You`ll be warm in your
Christmas sweater Thursday as highs reach into the low-70s - around
20 degrees above normal. Nashville`s Christmas Day temperature
record of 76 (last set in 2021) is likely safe as the NBM
probability of reaching at least this is low at around 10%. The good
news is despite this abnormal warmth that nothing impactful is
expected for the holiday. Low rain chances amounting to just another
few hundredths remain in the forecast mainly for the Plateau, but
most of the area will remain dry.

Temperatures in the upper-60s to 70s with mostly dry conditions
persist through Saturday. Then a pattern change arrives Saturday
night and into Sunday as an upper-level low tracks to our north and
sends a cold front through Middle TN. Temperatures will fall
sharply back down to near normal values. This system will also be
responsible for rain returning by late weekend. Lots of
uncertainty regarding details on timing and impacts this far out,
but there is model consensus that a break from this warmth is
coming.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

MVFR CIGS continue across Middle TN. Light showers have diminished
mostly, but still expect some showers through the overnight and
into Tuesday. IFR CIGS develop after 12z from west to east
tomorrow. Latest models suggest LIFR CIGS developing after 03z
Tuesday night. South winds remain slightly elevated tonight
between 8-10 kts with occasional gusts between 12-15 kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  66  58  70 /  30  50  40  20
Clarksville    52  67  57  69 /  50  50  40  20
Crossville     45  59  53  64 /  20  30  40  20
Columbia       52  67  58  71 /  20  40  20  10
Cookeville     48  60  56  65 /  30  50  50  20
Jamestown      46  59  53  64 /  30  40  50  20
Lawrenceburg   52  66  57  71 /  20  30  20  10
Murfreesboro   52  65  57  70 /  20  40  30  20
Waverly        50  65  58  68 /  50  50  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Cravens