379 FXUS64 KOHX 102355 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 655 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 653 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - Mostly dry and sunny conditions through Thursday. - Temperatures will warm through the week, with the possibility of hitting 90 degrees entering the forecast once again. - Diurnal thunderstorm activity picks up later in the week into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Nice quiet evening underway and conditions will stay quiet through the night. Patchy fog is expected- not as widespread as last night, but still some shallow fog in spots, especially around daybreak. Forecast on track, no major changes at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 After a very foggy start to the day, we are sitting under high clouds and temperatures are warming nicely with most spots already at 80 degrees. With the stationary front nearby, we could see a few very widely scattered storms this afternoon, but with there being such little shear and very poor lapse rates, these storms will be more of the typical summertime type that should collapse almost as quickly as they go up. As we move into tonight, dew point depressions look to be large enough that widespread fog shouldn`t be an issue, however, a few spots of locally dense fog will be possible, especially near any bodies of water. Wednesday looks about the same with temperatures warming up even more as a building upper-level ridge moves directly overhead. Highs will warm into the upper 80s, once again approaching 90 degrees at Nashville. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Models continue to slow the movement of the upper-level ridge, keeping things mostly dry and hot through Thursday. The NBM is currently giving a 60% chance of Nashville achieving 90 degrees or higher Thursday afternoon. Regardless of it that happens or not, it`s going to be hot and with upper-level flow shifting southerly, dew point temperatures will be back on the rise as moisture increases across the area through the weekend. This will result in feel-like temperatures being even warmer. An upper- level trough and associated surface low over the Great Plains will work its way towards the southeast this weekend, driving daily PoP chances up. PoP chances areawide Saturday and Sunday afternoon are in the 60% to 80% range. Looking at a few model soundings, nothing currently jumps off the page in terms of severe potential, but PWAT values come Sunday will be approaching or exceeding 2", so periods of heavy of rainfall will be possible. As we move into next week, the current pattern suggests things will remain unsettled. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle with calm to light winds tonight and vrb winds tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 61 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 58 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 61 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 60 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 58 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 61 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 62 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 61 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Unger