460
FXUS64 KOHX 170505
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1105 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- High chance for rain and a few storms on Thursday. Very low
  chance for severe storms with gusty winds during the afternoon
  and evening.

- Above-normal temperatures are favored through the Christmas
  holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A shortwave is moving through OK and TX this evening, allowing cloud
cover to expand into Middle TN. At the surface, southerly winds
continue, but moisture advection is weak. Today`s 00Z sounding shows
a very dry atmosphere both at the surface and aloft with the PWAT
coming in at a piddly 0.32 inches (near the 25th percentile for
the date). Moisture advection will continue to be weak through
tomorrow so that by the time the aforementioned shortwave swings
through, our rain chances for Wednesday are low in the 10-20%
range. Nothing impactful is expected with any rain amounts
amounting to just a couple hundredths at best. Otherwise, the
warming trend continues with highs warming into the low to mid-50s
as clouds continue to stream into the area.

On Thursday, a strong upper-level low approaches from the Plains. A
very strong jet will be associated with this system with 500mb winds
of 80-100 knots and 50-60 knot winds found at 850mb. Moisture
advection will be stronger with PWATs nearing an inch which is near
the 90th percentile for mid-December. This moisture influx leads to
high rain chances (90-100%) during the afternoon and evening, but
like has been communicated in previous discussion, instability
continues to be the limiting factor for severe weather. Forecast
soundings continue to show little instability for Thursday, and most
model guidance shows CAPE values less than 100 J/kg. NBM
probabilities of exceeding 100 J/kg is low at 10-30% and mainly
confined to southern Middle TN. So the messaging continues to be a
very low severe weather threat with the main threat being gusty
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A strong cold front from Thursday`s system will track east through
Middle TN that evening, giving us a cooldown for Friday. Highs on
Friday will generally be in the 40s. This cooldown will be brief as
temperatures warm right back up into the 50s for the weekend and
into early next week. With a troughing pattern setting up over the
eastern CONUS next week, embedded shortwaves will keep low rain
chances in the forecast Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the night with light southerly
winds. Clouds will also increase as a storm system approaches.
Despite this system, rain chances are too low Wednesday to include
mention in TAFs. There is a low chance for brief MVFR cigs during
the afternoon, however, confidence not high enough at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      36  56  44  62 /   0  20  10  90
Clarksville    36  56  44  60 /   0  10  10 100
Crossville     32  50  37  55 /   0  10  10  90
Columbia       35  55  43  60 /   0  20  20  90
Cookeville     33  51  39  57 /   0  10  10  90
Jamestown      33  51  37  57 /   0  10   0  90
Lawrenceburg   35  53  42  59 /   0  20  20  90
Murfreesboro   35  54  42  60 /   0  20  10  90
Waverly        36  54  44  58 /  10  20  10 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Clements