249 FXUS64 KOHX 081127 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 627 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Rain and storm chances become more widespread on Wednesday and Thursday. The overall severe threat this week remains low. - Localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will be possible with storms this week. - Heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s today through Tuesday across most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau, with the heat easing up starting on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A few light showers remain on radar tonight as a stationary boundary drapes across the Ohio River valley. Beyond these showers, tonight will be quiet and warm with more widespread patchy fog than we`ve seen in previous nights due to better rain coverage earlier today. Tuesday`s forecast will be similar to what we saw today, with perhaps a greater wind threat with a little better dynamic support in place. Moisture continues to pull into the area, and our PWAT values have nearly eclipsed 2" with 1.97" measured on the 00Z OHX sounding this evening. Storms today (and Sunday) dumped nearly 2 inches per hour. With additional thunderstorms expected tomorrow coupled with an increase in low-level moisture, localized flash flooding will be a big concern as healthy rainfall rates will occur in the strongest storms - all falling on top of what`s already fallen. Similar to previous days, it`s hard to say where exactly storms will fire since initiation has been aided by outflows. Regardless, keep a close eye out for flash flooding, especially if you`re in an area that has received several inches of rain in the last few days. Outside of the flash flooding threat, storms will carry a gusty wind threat with DCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg and SBCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear values will be a touch higher, near 20 kts, though not enough to warrant a great severe threat. Still, an isolated severe storm is possible during the peak heating of the afternoon when CAPES will be the highest. Otherwise, winds up to 50 mph will certainly be possible tomorrow as storms collapse. The upper-level trough takes a more positive tilt on Wednesday, finally shifting east. Rain/storm coverage will be greater on both Wednesday and Thursday with the movement of the trough. The bright side is....This will bring us some relief from the heat as afternoon highs back down near normal, around 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Our weather remains unsettled through the weekend with daily storm chances, primarily during the afternoon and early evening. Storms this weekend look more like typical summertime storms, characterized by weak shear and high CAPE, so the majority of what we see will likely be focused during the afternoon and early evening hours. Our break from the heat will last through the weekend, but it looks like things will be heating back up as we move into next week. A very early look at a few deterministic upper air charts show a large area of high pressure that may move over the southeast next week. Time will tell. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Some patchy dense fog this morning but should be gone by 13z. Once again, scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through the late morning and into the early afternoon today. Light SW to NW winds today. Overall, there is a low chance for thunderstorms to impact any given terminal. That said, greatest chances exist over the western half of the CWA, including CKV/BNA/MQY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 73 90 73 / 60 30 70 30 Clarksville 89 72 87 73 / 60 20 70 20 Crossville 88 67 86 67 / 60 30 80 40 Columbia 92 71 89 71 / 60 30 80 40 Cookeville 88 69 85 69 / 60 30 70 40 Jamestown 87 68 85 68 / 60 20 70 40 Lawrenceburg 92 70 89 71 / 60 30 80 40 Murfreesboro 93 71 90 71 / 60 30 70 40 Waverly 90 71 87 71 / 60 30 70 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Cravens