420 FXUS64 KOHX 021110 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 610 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 516 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Feeling like summer this week as temperatures warm up. - Dry Monday and Tuesday, then daily chances for showers and storms Wednesday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 With the loss of daytime heating, almost all of the evening showers have come to an end. Tonight`s weather should be very quiet though we could see some patchy fog after midnight as dew point depressions fall near zero and winds go calm. This is especially true in areas that have seen rain this evening. Use caution on mid-state roadways tonight as visibilities could drop suddenly. We`re finally in for a couple of quiet weather days across Middle TN. As the upper low responsible for this evening`s showers and storms pulls off to the northeast tomorrow, upper ridging will start to take over the region. As it does, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and it does look like we`ll finally reach 90 at BNA and maybe a few other spots Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The two days with the highest probs of this occuring are Tuesday and Wednesday (~90%) and Thursday drops off to about 75%. In any event, it`s going to be warm. The position of this upper ridge is obviously going to drop PoPs this week. While previous forecasts suggest rains may hold off until Thursday, the axis of the ridge could be a little further east by Wednesday and open the door for afternoon storms west of I-65, with a similar situation on Thursday. If this does occur, these will be your typical summertime thunderstorms that will carry a wind and heavy rain risk with any of the stronger cores, however forecast sounding are currently exhibiting poor mid-level lapse rates and low shear values so the risk of severe weather is low attm. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 The evolution of the weather pattern starting Friday is a little murky, however models have been very consistent with much more widespread rain and storm chances starting Friday and lasting through the weekend. While temperatures should regulate back into the 80s due to rain chances and additional cloud cover, multiple chances for rain through the weekend and into the start of next week do exist. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period with quiet weather. SCT to BKN clouds 040-070 mainly this afternoon. Light and variable winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 86 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 80 58 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 86 64 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 81 61 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 81 57 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 85 63 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 87 63 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 86 65 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Mueller