014
FXUS64 KMRX 090153
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
953 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Upper trough continues over the northeastern third of the country
from east Tennessee and northeast to New England with surface
high over the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic states and
extending south into the Tennessee Valley. Expect light winds and
clear skies overnight. The airmass remains dry with an upper level
northwest flow. Current temperatures across the region at mid
evening are in the 50s except lower to mid 60s Knoxville and
Chattanooga. Dew points much lower in the 40s to around 50. Lows
still look good to drop into the 40s to lower 50s. Do not need to
change current forecast so no update planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Key Messages:

1. Clear and sunny with near seasonal temperatures.

Discussion:

Upper-level northwest flow and subsidence will continue to keep us
sunny and dry with surface high pressure centered over the Ohio
Valley and eastern Great Lakes. This will result in light
northerly flow across our region. Longwave troughing across the
Northeast through the Central Appalachians will keep us between
major trough/ridge systems bringing us near normal temperatures.
For this region, the weather doesn`t get much better than this for
early to mid October.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Key Message:

It`s fall y`all.

Discussion:

Fall weather will continue the rest of the work week with Hurricane
Milton staying well to our south, weak ridging overhead, and a
surface high across the Appalachians. Expect very sunny skies and a
slow warming trend the rest of the week with the hottest day looking
to occur on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.

This cold front will move in from the northwest, and at this time,
FROPA looks like it should occur sometime late Sunday into Monday.
IT looks very likely this will really drop temperatures to start
next week with daytime highs dropping 10-15 degrees between Sunday
and Monday. Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the
7-day forecast and thorugh much of the upcoming week... And we could
get our first taste of frost in the southern Appalachian Mountains
Monday and/or Tuesday night with lows looking to drop into the 30`s
or 40`s across much of the southern Appalachian region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

High pressure and dry air with clear sky conditions and light
north winds will continue. VFR conditions prevail at all sites.
Valley fog is possible tonight near lakes and rivers, but direct
impacts at terminals is still uncertain so will not include any at
TRI tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             54  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       49  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              44  72  44  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TD
AVIATION...TD