476 FXUS64 KOHX 122351 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 651 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each afternoon and early evening. - Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across the area at this time. These thunderstorms are diurnally driven so do anticipate that coverage will taper off after sunset. However, zooming out does reveal more thunderstorm activity to our southwest in MS. CAMs continue to show this activity weakening as it approaches the TN River around midnight. Still can`t rule out isolated storms overnight, but do not anticipate anything severe through this evening or overnight. While mesoanalysis shows plenty of instability, shear is very weak at less than 25 knots and mid- level lapse rates are also poor at 5 C/km or less. In this type of environment, thunderstorms will have difficulty sustaining themselves long-term or becoming strong. Thunderstorm coverage will increase again though Friday as more scattered activity moves into the area by late morning. Severe risk remains low as discussed below with main thunderstorm risks being heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 We will be moving into an unsettled weather pattern as we head into Friday and through the weekend. An upper level low currently over the Plains will slowly work east over Middle TN. This will start to bring moisture advection north with our dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s by the evening. With an upper level ridge just to our east we have strong subsidence above 700 mb currently. This will gradually erode today and tonight from south to north. It will likely erode enough to see a few pop up thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening mainly for southern areas. Bulk shear will be weak and the severe threat is near zero. Highs today will push into the upper 80s to around 90. The upper level low will slowly work east into the region on Friday. This will continue to advect moisture north with dew points pushing into the low to mid 70s. A decaying line of storms will approach the TN River after midnight and models have it weakening quite a bit as it pushes into our area but can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm overnight. Much better chances for thunderstorms will come Friday afternoon into the evening. We will see plenty of CAPE tomorrow 1500+ j/kg and shear will tick up a bit into the 20-25 knot range. Lapse rate could be better and with marginal shear the severe risk is overall low but we could see a strong storm or two with gusty winds being the main concern. PWAT will jump into the 1.70-2.0" range by Friday and very heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms. With the activity expected to be scattered the flooding threat will be low but could still see some localized flooding. High Friday will be similar to today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend as the upper level low sets up over Middle TN. This will keep widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast with the best chances in the afternoons and evenings. Shear will weaken and lapse rates will remain poor. This will keep the severe threat low. Heavy rain will continue to be a concern as PWATs will remain 1.70-2.0". Things will cool some over the weekend into the low to mid 80s, it will remain very humid though with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Weak troughing will set up over the region for all of next week. This is going to keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast with the chances mainly in the afternoon and early evening. It will be a low shear high CAPE environment, keeping the severe threat low. Highs will gradually warm throughout the week getting back to around 90 by Wednesday. It will remain very humid with dew points staying in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Isolated thunderstorms in Middle TN early this evening will weaken with very low chances for impacts to terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected overnight with a good deal of mid level cloudiness and light, mainly south winds. Friday will feature mainly VFR through midday with SSW winds near 10KT. Scattered to numerous storms will develop after 18Z. Tafs will include VCTS for now, and future tafs can update timing and impact specifics. Main features of storms will be frequent lightning and very heavy downpours. Gusty winds around 40KT will occur with the stronger cells. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 72 87 71 86 / 20 70 50 90 Clarksville 71 84 70 84 / 30 80 50 90 Crossville 66 82 67 82 / 20 60 50 90 Columbia 70 87 69 84 / 30 70 60 90 Cookeville 67 84 68 82 / 20 70 50 90 Jamestown 66 84 67 82 / 20 70 40 100 Lawrenceburg 69 86 68 84 / 30 70 60 90 Murfreesboro 71 88 70 86 / 20 70 50 90 Waverly 69 84 68 82 / 40 80 50 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....13