105 FXUS64 KMRX 101124 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 724 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 127 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Key Messages: 1. Patchy fog may be an issue early this morning. 2. Showers and clouds will clear out this morning as a cold front moves through the region. 2. Dry weather for the rest of today and tonight. Discussion: In the upper levels, a deep trough will be over the eastern U.S. today all the way to the Gulf Coast. The trough will begin retreating to the north later tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front will move through the region this morning. The cold front is currently over Southern Illinois. High pressure will move into the region later today and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are expected early this morning ahead of the cold front. Patchy fog is already starting to develop but clouds will likely linger through the night limiting fog potential. Widespread dense fog is not likely but there is a chance if clouds clear out sooner than forecast. Clouds and rain will clear out of the region this morning as the cold front moves through. The rest of today and tonight will be dry. Some fog may be possible again tonight with clear skies and somewhat wet ground. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 127 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Key Messages: 1. Dry and slightly milder conditions are expected on Wednesday with limited rain chances on Thursday. 2. Friday through the weekend, daily showers and storms are likely each afternoon with hot and humid conditions. Wednesday through Friday At the start of the period, weak upper troughing will be to our east with ridging expanding from the west. Surface high pressure will be nearly centered over the region with a weak frontal boundary to our south. The combination of subsidence and recent northwesterly flow will allow for a milder start to the day on Wednesday with dry conditions area-wide. Heading into Thursday, ridging will spread across the region with high pressure shifting off to the east. This will allow for increased southerly flow, increasing temperature and overall moisture in the area. As such, rain chances will return, focused further south where better moisture is expected. By Friday, additional height rises are expected with 500mb heights approaching 5,990m. This will increase temperatures even further with many places across the south likely reaching into the lower 90s. With this, further moisture advection will increase chances for diurnal convection, especially further south and along the higher terrain. Saturday through Monday By Saturday, further height rises are expected with 500mb heights likely exceeding 5,990m, values slightly above July normals. This strengthens the case for hot temperatures area-wide. By this time, fairly deep moisture will be in place with scattered to numerous diurnal convection likely. The pattern will remain similar through Sunday and into early next week. A frontal boundary may approach from the north, but there is low confidence on how far south it will reach. As is typical during these summer patterns, isolated strong to severe storms and/or flash flooding are possible, which will keep the low probability HWO wording. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Showers will linger near TRI for a couple more hours. Low CIGs are slowly lifting but may hang around until mid or late morning. Tonight some fog or low CIGs will be possible with clear skies but uncertainty is high with drier air moving into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 64 88 65 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 61 86 64 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 58 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM....BW AVIATION...McD