046
FXUS64 KOHX 180008
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
608 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- High rain chances Thursday and Thursday evening. Chances for
  thunderstorms are very low.

- Warm and breezy conditions Thursday through Thursday evening
  with gusts of 30 to 35 mph at times.

- Above-normal temperatures are favored through the Christmas
  holiday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Surface dew points have come up dramatically the past 24 hours as
a strong cold front approaches Middle Tennessee from the west.
Look for the surface and near-surface flow to strengthen
considerably by tomorrow morning as the pressure gradient tightens
up. We expect showers to begin developing by late morning, then
become more widespread during the afternoon and finally start to
taper off after 00Z. The forecast models have consistently shown a
pronounced lack of instability with tomomorrow`s environment, so
the probability of thunderstorms is very low. There could be an
isolated cell or two, but showers are going to be predominant
weather type. (Please note that due to an equipment failure,
there will be no 00Z sounding from OHX.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

An elongated shortwave trough is now passing through the area
which is responsible for a few patches of light rain or sprinkles
and overall cloudiness across Middle Tennessee currently. Highs in
the 50s remain forecast for the afternoon with a light southerly
breeze.

A more substantial upper-level disturbance is now working through
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. This system is
expected to transition east-southeastward across the Plains
tonight approaching the Mississippi Valley tomorrow morning. As
such, an expansive low pressure system is forecast to move toward
the Great Lakes with an intensifying low-level jet (50-60 kts)
moving into Middle Tennessee ahead of an advancing cold front.
Pressure gradient winds will increase through the day with gusts
in the 30-35 mph range. Higher surface gusts are being limited by
decreased boundary layer mixing as instability struggles to build
amidst clouds and rain despite strong warm air advection. It`s
for this reason that the `Marginal Risk` was removed by SPC for
tomorrow. Despite strong upper-level and frontal forcing, storms
will struggle to sustain updrafts in the strongly-sheared
environment. Those that do are suspected to remain mostly elevated
per various forecast soundings. After cold front passage,
temperatures will take another drop Thursday night into Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Friday will be a cooler, drier day as a broad high pressure system
moves into the region. However, the pattern remains active this
weekend into next week. Another shortwave is depicted on guidance
Saturday night into Sunday with a low chance for rain near a
surface front. Thereafter, the overall trend continues to favor
above-normal temperatures as we approach the Christmas holiday
due to low-amplitude ridging developing across the southern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Expect VFR wx through the overnight period and into Thursday
morning. Tomorrow, a strong cold front will approach Middle
Tennessee from the west and bring a medium to high probability of
showers from late morning through the afternoon, along with
progressively lower ceilings once precipitation starts to fall.
There is a very low probability of TS, so we`ve gone with just
SHRA as the predominant weather type. Also look for surface and
near-surface winds to increase considerably in advance of the
front, so we`ve included LLWS remarks where the criteria are met.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  62  31  45 /  10 100  80   0
Clarksville    45  61  28  42 /   0 100  40   0
Crossville     37  55  28  40 /  10  90  90   0
Columbia       44  60  31  45 /  10 100  80   0
Cookeville     39  58  28  40 /  10  90  90   0
Jamestown      37  57  28  39 /   0  90 100   0
Lawrenceburg   42  60  31  45 /  10  90  80   0
Murfreesboro   42  60  31  44 /  10  90  90   0
Waverly        45  58  28  42 /  10 100  40   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Rose