748
FXUS64 KMEG 101120
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

- Dry and seasonal temperatures will prevail today and Wednesday.

- Humidity and thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and
  continue into the weekend. At this time the chances for
  organized severe thunderstorm development is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

00Z upper air analysis showed a longwave trough over the eastern
CONUS, downstream of a broad ridge over the western states.
Under northwest flow aloft, slightly drier midcontinental surface
high pressure had spread into the northern half of the Midsouth.
Early morning surface dewpoints ranged from around 60F over
northwest TN to the lower 70s over north MS. Weak winds and recent
rainfall was resulting in patchy fog over parts of north MS where
skies had cleared following overnight thunderstorms.

Through the rest of today, drier air will make additional
southward progress through the Midsouth. Highs will reach seasonal
readings in the mid and upper 80s with the aid of strong June
sunshine.

The upper level pattern will deamplify by Wednesday, with a zonal
polar jet across the northern CONUS and a southern branch cut-off
low over the southern plains. Gulf moisture will fuel showers and
thunderstorms over east TX and LA on Wednesday. By Thursday, 70s
dewpoints will return to the Midsouth. Shortwave ridging downstream
of the upper low may limit thunderstorm coverage and organization
potential Thursday afternoon. Rain chances will increase Friday
as the upper low lifts into the Ozarks, displacing the ridging to
our east. But limited deep layer shear will continue to limit QPF
and severe storms chances. Highs on Friday will be dependent on
cloud cover and thunderstorm outflow. Otherwise, highs appear
likely to reach 90F over most of the Midsouth Friday afternoon.

Headed into the weekend, the upper low will stall over the Ohio
River Valley, with a shear axis extending southwestward through
the lower MS River Valley. Warm and humid conditions at the
surface and the shear axis aloft will provide favorable conditions
for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend,
particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas of dense fog continue to impact TUP this morning. Vsbys will
improve over the next few hours. VFR CIGs will prevail with light
northwest winds becoming light and variable overnight.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ002>006-
     008>017-020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ053>055-
     090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS