062 FXUS64 KMEG 162328 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 - Significant river flooding continues across much of the Mid-South. - A warming trend will continue through the end of the week. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the Mid-South this weekend and continue through early next week as a slow moving front moves through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Severe weather will be possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Surface and upper-level ridging over the Lower Mississippi Valley is resulting in a sunny and pleasant afternoon across the Mid- South. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area as of 2 PM CDT. A weak shortwave trough will move across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight. This will bring a potential for some rain showers near the MO/KY border late tonight. However, short- term model soundings indicate enough low/mid-level dry air will be present to preclude any rain showers across this aforementioned area. Otherwise, surface and upper-level ridging will bring a continuation of rain free weather and temperatures moderating into the 70s and 80s for highs and lows into the 60s for the start of the weekend. Long-term models continue to indicate an upper-level trough ejecting out of the Southwest United States Friday and moving northeast into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. At the surface, a cold front will become quasi-stationary upstream of the area along the I-44 corridor on Saturday, with much of the convective activity occurring just west of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin Friday night, and increase Saturday night into Sunday as the shortwave trough rotates through the region. Uncertainty still exists with this late weekend system as the deterministic GFS remains the quicker solution compared to the ECMWF and Canadian solutions. LREF joint probabilities of surface-based CAPE values greater than 500 J/kg and Bulk Wind Shear greater than 30 kts range between 40-50 percent favor the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms generally along the Mississippi River on Sunday. Rainfall amounts are forecast to average around one inch over northeast Arkansas to amounts generally below one inch across the remainder of the area. NBM 90th percentile QPF amounts are somewhat higher ranging from 1-1.5 inches over northeast Mississippi to 2+ inches over northeast Arkansas. These higher amounts are possible west of the Mississippi River if the front stalls out a bit further south than currently forecast and will be watched closely as Lake Wappapello which feeds the St. Francis river could see an extension of flooding with any higher rainfall amounts. Convective chances could linger across the Mid-South through early next week as the surface boundary becomes nearly parallel to upper-level flow. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Winds will begin increasing tonight as the pressure gradient tightens across the Mid-South. The greatest gust potential exists at JBR & MEM, where gusts will approach 30kts. Elsewhere, wind gusts will remain around 23kts. VFR CIGs will prevail through the period. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...ANS