175
FXUS63 KABR 090233 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
933 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke aloft across western/southern SD today will shift
  eastward through Wednesday, with light to moderate concentration
  at times.

- Heightened fire weather concerns on Thursday (especially
  central SD) as wind gusts approach 25 mph with humidity less
  than 20 percent.

- Dry conditions continue through the week. Temperatures peak
  Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, or about 20 to 25
  degrees above normal. Cooler air moves in for the end of the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

The overall forecast for the remainder of tonight remains on
track. Did adjust sky cover slightly upwards across our southern
zones to account for the higher concentrations of elevated
wildfire smoke that is progged to shift across the area overnight.
Otherwise, no other changes anticipated at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

A warm front will move eastward across the CWA overnight into
Wednesday morning. Still expecting rather light winds overnight, but
with some weak low-level warm air advection. Still continued the
trend of blending in just a bit (about 50%) of NBM25th percentile
lows tonight, more so in valley areas. Did not go quite as
aggressive as previous nights though.

Looking at warmer temps on Wednesday compared to today in the post-
warm frontal air mass. Things will be a bit drier as well with
humidity likely dropping to around 20 percent or less along and west
of the Missouri River. No need for fire weather headlines though as
winds still look to remain light on Wednesday.

As for smoke issues, kept with the trend of slightly increased sky
cover wherever highest concentrations aloft show up. As for any
surface smoke, decided to get rid of it in the forecast, based on
how things are shaping up this afternoon with the lack of reduced
visibility obs when compared to the HRRR`s rendition of
concentrations and where they should be highest. Not too excited
about any noteworthy vsby reductions given the HRRR near-surface
concentrations. Will take a wait-and-see approach and see if any obs
start seeing meaningful reductions (6SM or less) before adding smoke
mention to the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Thursday morning we have a positively tilted ridge axis going from
southwestern SD to northeastern SD. This axis will move southeast
but the ridge will remain in place generally through Friday evening.
Late Friday night into early Saturday morning, an upper level trough
will push south out of Canada and put the whole forecast area into a
trough pattern. Clusters are showing a rather high amplitude ridge
move in from the west on Monday. Some deterministic models are
showing the trough expanding to cover much of the region, lasting
into at least Tuesday morning before the ridge begins to take over
again.

The period is generally expected to be dry, although with the low
out of Canada on Saturday, there are some slight (about 15%) chances
for some light rain over far northeastern SD and west central MN.
Thursday is expected to be the warmest day of the period with highs
23-27 degrees above average. Actual temperatures will be in the 80s
to around 90 with potential to tie records. As a cold front moves
west to east through Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, some
wind gusts up to 30 mph will be possible west river Thursday
afternoon, and then east of the MO river Friday. Temperatures
following the cold front will be around to slightly below average
with highs in the 60s to low 70s Friday and Saturday and in the 50s
to low 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all 4 terminals for this next 24
hour forecast period. Winds will remain light and variable
through the period. The potential for light to moderate
concentrations of smoke aloft at the KPIR/KMBG terminals will
remain possible tonight into Wednesday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Vipond