138 FXUS63 KABR 022325 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Canada wildfire smoke lingers over far eastern SD and western MN both ahead and just behind a cold front. A less smokey airmass follows for tonight and through the rest of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Winds slowly diminish by late this evening. Brief visibility reductions are expected in smoke east of the Coteau over the next couple of hours. Then, smoke exits to the east behind the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The front is almost all the way through the CWA, with elevated convection having passed across the far northeast of the state (and western Minnesota) and is now mostly outside the CWA. A weak shortwave is moving northeast across the northeast CWA on its way into northern Minnesota and is the culprit for the early day convection. The wave that is still the focus for afternoon storms will move later today from Wyoming and track along the SD/NE state line, with negligible upper level support across the northern half of South Dakota. HREF CAPE is concentrated in the far southeast CWA this afternoon, peaking at 2k j/kg over Deuel county, peaking at 22Z. 0-6km shear at that time is only 20-25kts however. Not to mention only about 100m2/s2 SRH in the lowest 3km. Thus, our rapidly diminishing severe weather potential. Upstream RAP/HRRR smoke models continue to generate a thick plume smoke wrapping around the backside of the system in the low levels through a portion of tonight, however upstream we`re not seeing many observation stations reflecting this feature so there is some question as to how bad smoke will get tonight. Aberdeen seems to be the worst, at 2-5 miles thus far. The pattern for the next several days will be a weak/broad trough across the northern CONUS, with some subtle/weakly embedded waves. For next weekend, a stronger upper low will develop over central or northeastern Canada, which will strengthen upper level flow aloft. Not enough continuity at this timescale to get into details regarding specifics but that should translate into a strong cold front at some point, but again whether that will translate into severe weather potential for another round of high concentration near surface smoke is still up in the air. With a trajectory from Alberta/southern Saskatchewan, while the worst fires/smoke are in northern Saskatchewan/northern Manitoba, smoke (both surface/aloft) should be less of an issue both in the near term and during the rest of the work week under the forecast upper pattern and weaker surface flow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Brief IFR/MVFR vsby are expected until 2z at KATY. Then, all sites will be VFR as smoke clears behind the recent cold front. Winds will gradually diminish through the evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...20