633 FXUS63 KABR 050434 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1134 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High chances (60-90%) for rainfall Thursday/Thursday night, with amounts generally around 0.75in or less. Severe storm threat remains very low. - A cold front will bring a 40 to 60% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening (east of the Missouri River), with a low risk (10-15%) for severe storms. This risk may increase as models evolve towards Saturday. - Warming trend by the middle of next week, with widespread 80s for high temperatures by Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Convection continues to diminish in coverage although intensity was never really going to generate that much rainfall. There is an area in North Dakota with a bit higher concentration of high based showers, however this is moving more or less due east and so current POPs for the rest of the evening/early overnight hours of about 10-20% is adequate. No other changes of note. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Isolated showers/sprinkles (and isolated thundershowers) continue across the CWA this afternoon, more so over central SD. Had earlier expanded PoPs to cover the entire CWA based on radar activity and cumulus development. HRRR did a pretty good job picking up on the isolated areal coverage of showers today, and it continues to indicate showers persisting into the evening/night hours based on some additional mid-level energy out west. Did add slight chance (20%) PoPs past 00Z this evening across the northern CWA where HRRR is indicating potential, but this will certainly have to be monitored this evening as confidence is not overly high on location and potential for precip beyond 00Z this evening. Still looking at a bit stronger wave moving through tomorrow into tomorrow night. Models continue to show a larger areal coverage of precipitation during this time frame, so the high chances (60-90%) look good for a good portion of the CWA, especially the further south you are, say, south of Hwy 12. Again, don`t see much in the way at all for instability, with minimal CAPE values across the region during the Thursday/Thursday night event. So, just expecting mainly rain showers with some small potential for a few non-severe thundershowers. Focus will then shift to Saturday as models continue to bring a cold front across the CWA during the afternoon/evening hours. Still seeing dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees setting up across the CWA in the pre-frontal air mass Saturday afternoon, so at least a bit of low-level moisture to work with. Joint probabilities considering CAPE/CIN/shear still showing at least some lower chance (~20%) values across the CWA. CSU ML now showing a 5-15% probability for severe storms Saturday, where 24 hours ago it had nothing. GEFS- based ML has increased from 2-5% 24 hours ago up to 10-15%. For the latter portion of the 7-day forecast, GEFS/GEPS/ENS agree fairly well in weak upper ridging building across the Northern Plains, with warmer air aloft moving in. Grand Ensemble mean 850mb temps by next Wednesday rise to +17C to +21C across the CWA from east to west. Will likely see temps rising well into the 80s if these 850mb temps hold. There`s even some low end chances (~10%) for temps exceeding 90 degrees next Wednesday. Even though that`s a low value, this could increase over the coming days, signaling a warming trend by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG A system will bring rain to central SD and then spread northeast during the day Thursday. Mostly expecting VFR CIGS, though on the backside we could see lowering to MVFR early Friday. May also be periods of MVFR VISBY in some of the heavier rain showers. Winds will generally remain light, shifting from southerly to easterly during the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...07 DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...07