265 FXUS62 KCAE 051153 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 753 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A return to a more active weather period has begun as increasing deeper moisture moves inland from the Atlantic ahead of an upper trough lifting northward. Scattered showers continue overnight into Thursday with an isolated storm remaining possible. A warmer and somewhat drier day is expected Friday followed by more chances for strong storms over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... - Morning rain favoring the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region then afternoon showers eastern Midlands and diminishing tonight - Below normal temperatures expected Closed upper low has opened up and continues to lift northeastward across the forecast area. Surface inverted trough has shifted inland and will serve as the path of a weak surface low that is expected to develop and lift northward through the day. Scattered showers persist over the region early this morning focused across the northern half of the forecast area but then by afternoon there will be more subsidence over the western part of the forecast area in the wake of the departing upper trough and convection should favor the Pee Dee region and eastern Midlands. Atmospheric moisture remains high today at or above 1.7 inches but then decreases this evening from west to east which should result in lowering pops this evening and overnight. Instability is limited today but cannot rule out some afternoon thunderstorms but severe threat again remains very low. High PWAT values and possible training of convection could lead to possible isolated flooding threat. Temperatures expected to remain below normal given extensive cloud cover and precipitation. Tonight, generally dry conditions are expected with the exception of some lingering showers in the eastern Midlands early in the evening, but clouds should be diminishing as drier air moves in aloft. However, this could set up the potential for another round of stratus development tonight which would limit radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - A few rounds of thunderstorms possible, with highest likelihood Saturday afternoon. A series of shortwaves and associated MCS`s will move through a very broad weak trough across the US Friday and Saturday. Downstream of the trough, robust moisture and instability is expected both Friday and Saturday over our area. Strong-severe thunderstorms are possible both days, but the timing of the ingredients all line notably better on Saturday. For Friday, the diurnal timing of the primary shortwave and MCS looks to be offset, with the remnants of the MCS`s and shortwave aloft moving through overnight; some speed increase in the MCS is likely, but not enough to overlap with sufficient instability. However, plentiful moisture and instability still support a strong thunderstorm threat. Some notable capping will linger and the forcing is limited, so this will be convective temp driven as temps climb into the low 90`s with dew points in the low 70`s. HREF members are pretty consistent in scattered coverage Friday afternoon with a 1500-2000 SB CAPE, 15-20 knots 0-6km shear, and 1.6" PWAT airmass. So not a tremendous environment but sufficient and a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms continues for Friday. For Saturday, the broad trough over the central US will sink southeast leading to general height falls across our area. The next wave in the series will develop an MCS, likely over TN-AL-MS, which will then translate east within the strengthening 700-500mb flow regime. Based on the current guidance, the timing of this wave is more favorable diurnally for severe weather. There is good agreement in the LREF to destabilize by Saturday afternoon with over 2000 SB CAPE developing along with sufficient northwesterly cloud layer shear to support organized convection. So the synoptic and mesoscale environment are favorable but there is still some uncertainty in exactly where this MCS will track, dependent on where it develops upstream. But given the potential and environment, a Slight Risk continues for severe weather on Saturday, primarily for wind. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Additional strong thunderstorm activity possible Sunday and Monday with active summer weather expected beyond for the rest of next week. The slow moving trough will shift further east on Sunday and Monday, with associated shortwaves likely triggering some scattered- widespread convection both days. Modest height falls are expected into Sunday and persistent deep moisture will remain in place despite Friday`s MCS passage, so instability will be more than sufficient again Sunday; kinematics remain sufficient as well as the shortwave digs with 50 knots of 500mb flow providing 30-40 knots of cloud layer shear. So much like Saturday, the convective development, propagation, and timing are difficult to pin down but the synoptic and mesoscale environmental setup supports strong- severe storms on Sunday. LREF guidance suggests a weak front will push through with Sunday`s shortwave but strong moisture advection will quickly drive PWAT`s back over 1.75" for Monday. But instability recovery will be limited, and as such, the strong thunderstorm threat is lessened compared to Saturday- Sunday. Beyond Monday, the primary trough will occlude to our north and we will remain under southwesterly flow with daily thunderstorms and showers expected each day. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread IFR or lower conditions continue to be expected through the late morning today before conditions improve back to VFR. Possible returning restrictions overnight but confidence is limited. This morning widespread IFR conditions are seen with periods of LIFR noted as a stratus deck has set up across the region with high low level moisture. There have also been some showers moving through, keeping mainly toward the eastern Midlands and into the Pee Dee Region, though a couple have been near CAE/CUB. This continues through this morning through around 15z before ceilings are expected to lift to MVFR and finally periods of VFR this afternoon. A couple more showers or an isolated storm could be possible into the eastern Midlands this afternoon but confidence in this is not high. Winds start out of east to southeast today at 5-7 kts before low pressure moving through the region turns winds out of the southwest to west by the late morning and finally toward the northwest this evening. For the end of the TAF period, model guidance has hinted some more stratus could be possible tonight, but probabilities are around 30-40% at this time, though with high moisture lingering, some fog could be possible overnight. Either way, restrictions are again expected tonight due to fog or potential stratus. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the area through much of the period, leading to potential early morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$