046 FXUS62 KCAE 050008 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 808 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A return to a more active weather period has begun as increasing deeper moisture moves inland from the Atlantic ahead of an upper trough lifting northward from the Gulf. Scattered showers continue overnight into Thursday with an isolated storm remaining possible. A warmer and drier day on is then expected Friday followed by more chances for shower/storms over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Rain chances continue overnight. - Heavier rainfall possible over the eastern areas closer to the coast tonight. Upper low currently over the Florida panhandle appears to be transitioning to a more open wave. At the surface, an inverted trough is being noted along the coast. Regional radar shows a wave of more moderate rain just off the coast near Charleston. Latest guidance shows the inverted trough drifting inland overnight, allowing the round of more moderate showers offshore to move toward the area. However, with the closed low looking more like a sharp open trough, I suspect the overall rain we get overnight won`t be as widespread or as much as previously thought. The best chance for the more moderate rainfall remains near the coastal plain as guidance brings the offshore rainfall to begin moving northward toward the PeeDee region during the overnight and early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Rain chances start to dwindle late Thursday afternoon with more breaks in cloud cover, but temperatures likely remain below normal. - Warmer and muggy on Friday with lower rain chances besides an outside chance for a shower/storm. Thursday and Thursday Night: Rain chances remain fairly high into the morning hours Thursday, especially toward the eastern Midlands and the Pee Dee region. This will be driven by the closed 500mb low moving through the region that should transition to an open wave and a solid inverted surface trough/developing area of low pressure located a bit inland from the coast. These features continue to bring strong moisture transport with vectors out of the southeast to south-southeast, keeping PWAT`s near to just over 2" for much of the morning and driving efficient rainfall. The upper wave and developing surface low then slowly move northeast of the FA through the day, bringing PWAT`s down some to 1.5-1.7" and some subsidence during the afternoon. High-res model guidance has continued to trend PoP`s that lower after 3pm or so with this subsidence working in as perhaps a couple showers and a possible storm linger. This all should lead to some more breaks in cloud cover during the afternoon, and thus highs into the low to mid 80s will be possible, though it could be a tad cooler into the Pee Dee where cloud cover may linger a bit later. Subsidence keeps the area dry into Friday morning with lows into the mid 60s. Friday and Friday Night: Friday is a bit of an in between day as upper subsidence, lower PWAT`s (near 1.5"), and westerly to northwesterly flow aloft begin to take over ahead of the next potential shortwave on Saturday. Solid insolation should allow temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s, creating muggy conditions as dewpoints likely remain near 70F. There is the outside chance of a isolated shower/storm during the afternoon as temperatures near the convective temperature where any storm would be embedded in a moderate to strongly unstable environment but with a lack of shear. The potential for a strong pulse storm is there if it can overcome upper subsidence and some weak downsloping flow, which right now is not looking terribly likely. Mostly dry conditions likely continue overnight, though there is potential a decaying MCS could be moving into northern GA Friday night, possibly pushing outflow near the FA, but there is high uncertainty in this potential at the moment and thus drier conditions are expected to prevail at this time with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s as cloud cover increase into Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message(s): - The pattern likely stays active into early next with daily chances for showers/storms. - Uncertainty remains in any potential days for strong/severe storms but Saturday looks like the first chance. - Warm and muggy conditions expected into early next week. Confidence remains fairly high in a unsettled weather pattern throughout the extended, where daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist. The EC Ensemble and GEFS members remain in good agreement that zonal flow aloft is expected to start the weekend with a possible shortwave moving into the FA Saturday along with a nearing cold front, that is still expected to stall out somewhere near the CWA. With warm and muggy conditions likely, PWAT`s around 130-140% of normal are expected with westerly to southwesterly flow from 850mb up to 500mb that are in the NAEFS 90th percentile. This makes Saturday the first day of interest for potential strong/severe storms with decent forcing and high LREF probabilities for MUCAPE over 1500 J/kg (70-80%) and decent probabilities for Bulk shear over 30 kts (30-40%). While good parameters look to be in place Saturday, this event will be driven by the potential shortwave and where/when exactly the front gets hung up, thus uncertainty in timing/impacts exist. The rest of the period sees this stalled front linger in the area with passing shortwaves before deep troughing over the eastern CONUS early in the week may aid in kicking the front out. There is still uncertainty in terms of any potential impacts each day but overall, this pattern along with continued muggy conditions brings more shower/storm chances each day where ML guidance like CSU and CIPS show potential for storms, some of which could be on the stronger end, into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered -SHRA will continue through this evening with periodic CIG and VSBY restrictions. More widespread MVFR and eventually IFR CIGS will then settle in to the terminals overnight as additional moisture move into the region. Some guidance indicates precip coverage will be a bit lower overnight but may increase again toward daybreak Thursday, particularly at CAE/CUB and OGB. CIGS then improve a bit slowly during the day Thursday, with some VFR conditions possible by the mid to late afternoon. Winds mostly out of the east this evening and for much of the night time hours. After 12z Thursday, a surface low is forecast to be tracking through the CSRA and the Midlands, with the primary impact being a noticeable change in the wind direction from E/SE to SW and NW by late Thursday afternoon. Wind speeds mostly between 5 and 10 knots through the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the area through much of the period, leading to potential early morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$