214 FXUS62 KCHS 111132 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 732 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through our area today, bringing some showers. High pressure then returns for the weekend and the first part of next week, keeping conditions dry. A dry cold front should move through on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: At the mid-lvls, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. This will allow heights to fall overhead. At the surface, a low situated over North Carolina will strengthen throughout the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front, a somewhat moist airmass will advect into the region. PWATs will be ~0.80" in the morning, which is above normal for this time of year. However, this is nothing extreme. Westerly winds are expected to gust in the afternoon/evening ahead of the aforementioned cold front with gusts reaching 15-20 mph at times. SPC continues to have our Charleston Tri- County and the rest of the immediate coast under a Marginal Risk of severe weather. However, with SBCAPE values of ~500 J/kg, SRH 0-3KM values of ~100m^2/m^2, and the lack of lift, it seems this risk is overdone. Even looking at the model soundings, nothing looks too impressive for the development of severe weather. According to the latest runs of the HREF and HRRR, the best bet of any precipitation and/or convection developing would be in the evening (~6PM) along the South Carolina and Georgia coastline as the cold front passes through the region. As far as temperatures, highs will reach into the mid to upper 70s along and south of I-95 with low 70s north of I-95 (temperatures cooler along the beaches). Tonight: After the passage of the cold front, high pressure will begin to build into the region from the west and skies will remain clear. With northwest winds pushing cooler air into the region, lows will dip into the mid to upper 40s in the interior counties and low to mid 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A mid-level trough will push off the East Coast on Saturday with ridging building into the southeastern states into early next week. At the surface high pressure will initially build into the region from the west, with the center of high pressure shifting eastward into early next week. Generally quiet conditions are forecast this weekend and into Monday with no rain in the forecast and high temperatures Saturday and Sunday in the low 70s. As the center of high pressure comes closer to the local forecast area high temperatures on Monday are forecast to reach into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows are forecast to be a few degrees below normal, due to light to calm winds and clear skies, with lows in the 40s inland and low 50s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A mid-level trough will swing across the East Coast on Tuesday as a dry cold front pushes through the forecast area at the surface. Thereafter, high pressure will build back into the region both aloft and at the surface, yielding a rain-free forecast. Temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to reach into the low to mid 80s. The aforementioned cold front will then usher a cooler airmass into the region, with temperatures on Wednesday only reaching into the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, an area of LIFR ceilings with MVFR fog was over KCHS, drifting to the east. Ongoing 12Z KCHS soundings indicate that the stratus was below a H925 inversion, with a very thin layer. The restrictive ceilings should dissipate during the first one to two hours of daylight. As temperatures warm and mixing increase to 6-8 kft, gusts around 20 kts should develop across the terminals later this morning and remaining through late this afternoon. High resolution guidance indicates that isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of H5 trough this afternoon. Terminals should remain dry. In the wake of a cold front, winds should veer from the NW between 5 to 10 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Today: Expect southwesterly winds to remain gusty throughout the afternoon. A cold front will pass over the coastal waters this evening, a possible shower could develop with this. Winds will shift northwesterly behind the front and stay gusty. Seas will range from 3-4 ft. No Small Craft Advisories are expected. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail over the waters through the weekend, with a dry cold front pushing through on Tuesday. High pressure will then return mid-week. Sub-Small Craft Advisory criteria is forecast through the period, however gusts on Tuesday could approach 25 knots in association with the passing cold front. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dennis/NED SHORT TERM...CPM LONG TERM...CPM AVIATION...CPM/Dennis/NED MARINE...CPM/Dennis