971 FXUS62 KILM 111100 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 700 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring a few showers and storms day. High pressure that follows will bring a dry and slightly cool weekend. A warmup Monday will be reversed by a weak cold front Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Showers and thunderstorms continue to push offshore this morning and some updates were made to PoPs over the next few hours. Some additional adjustments were made for the evening showers as hi- res guidance has seen some better agreement. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to work their way through the area early this morning after packing a decent punch of 30 mph wind gusts through much of the Pee Dee. In the immediate near term, subsidence following the wave will bring a period of quiet weather this morning. SPC mesoanalysis furthers confidence in dry conditions for at least a few hours due to a narrow tongue of drier air trailing the early morning wave and surface front. Low level clouds trapped beneath a near-surface inversion following the cold front will erode by early or mid morning with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies to follow through the early afternoon. The upper low harboring the surface disturbance is currently analyzed over the TN mountains and is expected to move into North Carolina`s western Piedmont this morning. The low will then deepen through the day before a trough axis sweeps eastward this afternoon and this evening. Height falls associated with the upper trough will promote deep mixing this afternoon. Inland areas could see dry adiabatic lapse rates up to around 8k feet AGL and this would allow for some periodic gusts up to 20-25 mph from near 700 mb. Near the coast, SW advection in the low levels inherently maintains better moisture and a smaller boundary layer. Gusts up to 20 mph along the coast, slightly higher at the immediate coast. Moisture profiles near the coast support some early shower development as cumulus increases during the late morning and early afternoon. A few of these showers could deepen into an isolated thunderstorm due to strong mid level lapse rates. Thunderstorms during this period could contain some small hail. There is some uncertainty due to questions regarding the strength of trailing subsidence. However, remnant moisture and instability aloft could overcome this hurdle. Dry air advection pushing into the Grand Strand and points southward mean that the best chance for showers prior to mid or late afternoon is the Cape Fear region. The trough axis and associated cold front shifts eastward during the mid and late afternoon. Pooling moisture around the center of the upper low will gradually build into the forecast area during this time. Counties along the I-95 corridor initially begin to feel this effect after 3 PM as dry SW winds turn slightly more toward the W, souring moisture aloft. Patchy cumulus early in the day will become more widespread during the afternoon. Cloud bases remain quite high, and mid level lapse rates should generate enough instability for showers and storms to develop, if not already developed upstream. Interestingly, nearly all of the CAPE available is above the freezing level (only around 7k feet AGL today). This suggests that hail should exist in any vertically developed storm. Additionally, dry air near the surface forms an inverted-V profile signaling that downdrafts and outflow could produce some stiff gusts. If upstream development is observed, there could be a broken line of showers, guided by a leading cold pool/front. Thankfully, all relevant severe weather parameters are weak and severe weather appears unlikely, the main concern would be isolated quarter-sized hail in an anomalously strong updrafts and a strong downdraft or two. Showers and storms continue into the early evening with the upper trough finally pushing offshore overnight. Cold air advection follows the front with overnight lows in the mid and upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Very deep mid level trough overhead Saturday. Cold temperatures aloft (-24C at H5) will bring steep mid level lapse rates atop a weak inversion (3-5kft), with steep surface-based lapse rates beneath. The only moisture however will be a thin layer at the base of the inversion. Current forecast as well as model guidance has POPs in the teens, which based upon aforementioned moisture profile might be hinting at a few non-measurable sprinkles. Cool advection, meanwhile keeps highs in the mid 60s, close to 10 degrees below climatology. NVA slated for Saturday night as the final spoke of vorticity rounds the base of the trough and pivots offshore. Saturday night`s mid 40s will represent less of a deviation from climo, closer to 5 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unfortunately (given our D0/D1 drought status) there doesn`t appear to be any meaningful rain chances in the extended. High pressure progresses off the coast on Sunday but not early enough to allow for a warmup so highs still a bit below climo. Southwesterly wind SUnday night then strengthens on Monday for said warmup, most locales away from the water hitting 80. The tempering of highs by the seabreeze will be minimized as moderate westerly winds above the surface minimize the boundary`s inland progress. A cold front on Tuesday brings our only real rain chances but the lack of appreciable moisture flux ahead of it paired with its rapid movement will keep QPF prospects low. Even though rainfall should be minimal given the strength of the forcing a few showers should in fact occur and the drier model solutions don`t appear as plausible as the ones with at least low end chance POPs...have introduced rain chances to the previously dry forecast. Behind Tuesday`s front temperature deviations from climo will be small Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IFR behind a line of showers and storms will gradually improve to MVFR over the next couple of hours and VFR for the remainder of the day. Isolated showers are possible for ILM late this morning and early afternoon, but chances are low; maintained with a PROB30. A little gusty in deep mixing, a few readings up to 20-25 knots will be observed this afternoon. Convection chances should increase this evening ahead of an upper trough axis and cold front. Confidence in showers developing at some point Friday afternoon is high, but confidence in the location or timing is low. Any restrictions should be brief with VFR dominating much of the day. MVFR likely to develop for portions of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. MVFR or IFR possible late tonight as moisture stays trapped below an inversion. Extended Outlook... MVFR possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. Mainly VFR on Saturday with a few showers possible. High confidence in VFR following through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Southwest winds increase today ahead of an approaching upper low and associated cold front. Winds peak at around 15 knots this afternoon with gusts around 20 knots, periodically up to 25 knots. Showers and storms will push offshore this morning, locally increasing winds and seas. Drier weather is expected during the daylight hours with another round of convection approaching the area late this afternoon and into the evening as a line of broken showers or storms. Storms are likely to redevelop offshore near the Gulf Stream with the threat of strong winds and isolated hail persisting late this evening and into the early morning hours. Winds turn northwesterly tonight behind the cold front with gusts increasing in cold advection. Saturday through Tuesday... High pressure building in from the west over the weekend will bring NW flow. Wind waves will dominate the weaker easterly swell. Backing in the wind direction begins Sunday night and continues into Monday as the center of the high moves offshore. Southwesterly winds become established and they will remain so into Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. No headlines through the period, the largest seas (5ft) appearing in the SW flow early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM