057
FXUS62 KILM 231726
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1220 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold, dry air will remain in place during today as Arctic
high pressure moves off the New England coast. A weak surface
low is expected to develop off the SE States Coast and track
northeast, remaining just off the Carolina coasts tonight thru
Tue. This will lead to increasing clouds and rain chances
beginning tonight and continuing into Tuesday. Rain chances will
be low for the latter half of the week as high pressure from
the north lingers across the area. Temps will rebound to near or
above normal during the latter part of this period.

&&
UPDATE/...
No changes to the chilly forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will remain entrenched across the area
from the northeast today and a good part of tonight. A potent
coastal trough and or eventual closed circulation will develop
later tonight and move quickly to the northeast Tuesday. Overall
guidance both from a probabilistic and deterministic standpoint
show little chance for any freezing precipitation well inland.
In fact some of the recent high resolution guidance shows what
may be a grind to get much if any qpf well inland. Temperatures
will likely be too warm as well. For today expect sunny skies
once again with highs recovering to the upper 40s to near 50
after a very cold start. Lows tonight should come early in the
period due to moisture advection and should bottom out in the
middle to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The start of this period features a sfc low having developed
along an inverted sfc trof, ie. coastal trof, offshore from SC.
Low amplitude mid-level s/w trof will aid the lows
strengthening but with flow aloft westerly by nature, will keep
the coastal trof and low pressure offshore as it tracks
northeast during Tue. The rain shield will be at its peak at the
start of this period, mainly in the form of light to
occasionally moderate stratiform rain. Favorable convective
parameters for thunder remain along and east of the coastal
trof, ie, offshore. Back edge of the rain to lift northeast
during the day Tue, with it exiting the FA by early Tue evening.
Temps this period will run near normal at the coast and below
normal inland as the dense cold air to hold its ground but
moderating during this period. For Tue night thru Wed night,
mid- level s/w ridge to park overhead with sfc high ridging
across the area from the NE States. Will keep dry conditions
during this period with temps near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quick shot of light pcpn Thu as quick moving mid-level s/w
trof moves across the FA. Mid-level amplified s/w ridge to park
itself across the East Coast Fri thru Sun as offshore Atlantic
expansive upper low prevents its continued progression eastward.
Initially sfc ridging from the NE States will extend across the
FA thru the period, breaking down slightly as sfc flow becomes
more easterly and southeasterly across the FA. Looking at a
slow warming trend during this period with temps slightly above
normal Fri and 5 to 10 degrees above normal this upcoming
weekend. Approaching storm system Sun to yield increasing
chances for pcpn.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR for the remainder of the daylight hours. Soon thereafter clouds
increase from the SW dropping terminals down to MVFR. Rain will also
fill in and lead to visibility-related flight restrictions but not to
the extent of the clouds. Models not in agreement where the heaviest
rain and chance for IFR clouds are but at this time we favor coastal
terminals over FLO and LBT.


Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through much of
the extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...NE winds will continue across the waters once
again today and most of the overnight period. Speeds will remain
steady state as well in a range of 15-20 knots today and most of
tonight. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

Tuesday through Friday...A surface low will move northeast
along an offshore coastal trof Tue, exiting NE of the waters by
early evening Tue. Winds directly around the low will reach
across the FA and could produce 25 kt wind gusts. However, the
SCA this round may be from seas eclipsing 6 ft thresholds
especially 10-20 nm out. The short period seas will relax below
SCA thresholds, likely late Tue night. Ridging from the NE
States will extend across the Carolinas for the remainder of
this period. Looking at an extended period of NE wind
directions. The sfc pg to remain tightened enabling 10-20 kt
wind speeds Wed thru Fri. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft this period,
except up to 5 ft the waters off Cape Fear and Romain
respectively.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK/31
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MBB