432
FXUS62 KCHS 090403
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1203 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Milton will continue to track east northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico, tracking across central Florida
Wednesday night and into the western Atlantic by Thursday. High
pressure should build across the region by late week and
through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No significant changes were made for the midnight update. Lows
were nudged down a degree or two across interior Charleston
County where both the H3R and RAP show a corridor of lows near
60 reaching into North Charleston, West Ashley into Adams Run.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the short term period will be dominated by Milton and
the associated impacts. Major Hurricane Milton will advance
northeastward through the eastern Gulf on Wednesday making
landfall Wednesday night along the central Florida Gulf Coast
before emerging into the Atlantic coast of Florida Thursday
morning. Rainfall with Milton will edge it`s way northward into
parts of the forecast area Wednesday night but with a very sharp
gradient of heavier rain that sets up somewhere across far
southeast Georgia and into the Atlantic. Recent trends support a
southward nudge of the expected heavier rainfall particularly
given the degree of dry air that will be in place along the
northern side of the TC track and getting ingested into the
system. Thus, rainfall amounts (and resulting flooding rain
threat) will be trended downward with the afternoon forecast and
TC cyclone advisory.

Wind-wise: Not a lot of change anticipated at this juncture.
Tropical storm force winds are still looking to develop across
the southeast Georgia coastal areas and marine waters during the
overnight hours Wednesday night, and further inching into the
southeast SC marine waters/coastal areas Thursday morning. The
stronger winds/greatest impacts will occur across the southeast
Georgia coastal areas and marine waters with emphasis on the
coast. Diminishing impacts heading further inland and north in
the SC counties.

Friday: Diminishing TC Milton will progress quickly eastward
away from the southeast coast while high pressure builds into
the local area. Conditions improve quickly although gustier
winds will persist across the region through the day and into
Friday evening. Noticeably cooler temperatures follow Milton for
the end of the week with highs only reaching the low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the wake of Milton, surface high pressure will take control
of the region late week and remain dominant through the weekend
with rain-free conditions anticipated, while temperatures
rebound back into the upper 70s (Sat) to the lower 80s (Sun).
Late weekend and heading into early next week, larger scale
pattern is looking to undergo a large degree of amplification
with deep closed upper level lows developing off the Pacific
northwest and across the eastern Canada/Great Lakes/New England
region, with suppressed heights pressing down into the
southeast. This may act to drive a fairly strong cold front down
into and through the southeast U.S. during the first half of
next week and potentially delivering a push of fairly "cool" air
into the region. Given the airmass change, there is an argument
for introducing precip chances to the forecast for the Monday
night through Tuesday timeframe as the boundary moves through.
However, consensus guidance keeps a dry forecast going and plan
to do the same for now. Temperatures start out on the warm
side...lower 80s on Monday but are looking to dip into the lower
to middle 70s for Tuesday onward...several degrees below normal
and more akin to early November temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
09/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 10/06z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Increasing gusty NE winds will
impact the terminals late Wednesday night and through the day
Thursday as Hurricane Milton passes across the Florida Panhandle
and into the western Atlantic. Some rainfall is possible as
Milton slides by well to our south, particularly at the SAV
terminal. However, flight restrictions appear increasingly
unlikely.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The marine zones will remain between Hurricane Milton
over the Gulf of Mexico and sfc high pressure centered over the
mid- Appalachian Mountains. The pressure gradient between the
two systems should support northeast winds around 20 kts with
gusts between 25-30 kts across the Atlantic waters. Charleston
Harbor winds should range between 10 to 15 kts with gusts near
20 kts.

Wednesday and Thursday: A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for the Georgia nearshore and outer waters through
Thursday night. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for all
South Carolina marine zones, including the Charleston Harbor.

Northeast winds will remain rather gusty through the day
Wednesday with gusts of 20 to 30 knots common and seas running 4
to 8 feet. Conditions will deteriorate late Wednesday night
into Thursday as Hurricane Milton approaches and passes over the
Florida Peninsula. Sustained NE winds of 30 to 40 knots are
likely across the marine waters by Thursday, gusting into 40 to
50 knot range with the strongest winds most likely across the GA
waters. Seas will build to 9 to 12 feet across the nearshore
waters and 12 to 16 feet in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters.

Friday through Sunday: Conditions will improve on Friday as TC
Milton progresses further eastward into the Atlantic and away
from the east coast. Gusty NE winds 25 to 30 knots will still be
common Friday, and while seas will begin to diminish they are
still forecast to be 6 to 10 ft across the nearshore waters and
10 to 13 ft over the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters as swell
associated with Milton continues to impact the marine zones.
Conditions will continue to improve into the weekend as high
pressure builds into the region.

Rip Currents: Swells from Hurricane Kirk along with increasing
impacts from Hurricane Milton crossing into the Atlantic on
Thursday, will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina beaches through
at least Thursday and possibly Friday.

High Surf: The risk for high surf will increase late Wednesday
and especially Thursday and Thursday night as impacts from
Milton peak locally. The latest breaking wave height data
support breaking waves as high as 5-8 ft by Thursday with 3-5 ft
Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory continues for Wednesday night
through Thursday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Storm Surge Watch in effect from the Altamaha River north to
the Edisto River with 2 to 4 ft of inundation.

Coastal flooding will be possible during high tides from
Wednesday through Friday morning across Charleston County.
Coastal flooding appears most likely as Milton tracks across FL
to the western Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. Minor
coastal flooding possible within the Charleston Harbor on
Wednesday. On Thursday, tidal departures will increase through
the midday/afternoon high tide. The water level is forecast to
peak around 8 ft MLLW Thursday afternoon. Coastal flooding may
begin around noon and should end around 5 PM. Minor coastal
flooding may redevelop Friday afternoon.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Tropical Storm Watch for GAZ116>119-137>141.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
     Storm Surge Watch for GAZ117-119-139-141.
     High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ045-047>052.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051.
     Storm Surge Watch for SCZ048-049-051.
     High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ330-350-352.
     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ354-374.
&&

$$