773 FXUS62 KGSP 050729 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 329 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A surface low pressure system lifts northeastward along the Carolina coast today keeping rain chances around. Brief drying returns tonight into early Friday before a couple of cold fronts bring unsettled weather back to the region this weekend into early the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday: Weak tropical disturbance currently moving north over the Georgia Coastal Plain will work north and move along the Carolina Coastal Plain through the daytime period. Scattered rainbands will traverse across the area as a result, especially along and east of I-77 where PWAT values rise close to 2.00" and being closer in vicinity to the surface low. Outside of the CLT metro, QPF response is rather light and total amounts through the afternoon likely remains under 0.25". Localized heavier showers and embedded thunder will traverse over the CLT Metro as better instability will be available to go along with deeper saturated vertical profiles to support convectively-driven, localized 0.50`-1.00+" amounts. Very warm and humid conditions will continue as the tropical wave lifts north and a deeper Atlantic Fetch filters in with almost due easterly component through the daytime period and warm thicknesses staying put as the upper ridge continues to lift to the north and east. Thicker cloud cover will hang out along and east of I-77 in association with the tropical disturbance and higher PoPs, while more scattering and deeper mixing occurs in the NC mountains, northeast Georgia, and western Upstate where temperatures will climb to near normal values, while the NC foothills/Piedmont and eastern Upstate remain a category or so below normal for afternoon highs. The tropical disturbance will be in the midst of shifting offshore the North Carolina Coast overnight tonight, leading to the CFWA placed in the subsidence quadrant of the disturbance. Expect a period of drier air filtering in across the area, while clouds try to scatter and dewpoints lower. In this case, mostly dry conditions with clouds hanging out overnight tonight, with lows dropping to near-normal values. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Thursday: The coastal low moves away from the area Friday as a cold front sags toward the area from the northwest. After a dry start, convection develops in the moderately unstable air mass. Highest PoP will be across the mountains, trailing off south of I-85. Convection may organize across TN and move into the mountains late in the day into the evening. With moderate shear, some of this convection may survive leading to isolated severe storms. Highs will be around 5 degrees above normal and lows around 10 degrees below normal. The air mass remains unstable across the area Saturday as the front remains to our northwest. Effective shear will be higher even though bulk shear will be a little lower. There is also DCAPE and sfc delta theta-e to enhance severe potential. Highest PoP remains across the mountains, but overall PoP is higher across the area, with a mainly diurnal max, but showers could linger through the night. Highs and lows around 5 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday: Unsettled weather is expected through the period. The cold front to the northwest moves into the area Sunday then dissipates as another slowly moving cold front approaches from the northwest. This front moves into the area Wednesday. With the unstable air mass remaining in place, convection is expected each day, with highest PoP Tuesday and Wednesday. Shear remains elevated as well, so severe storms will be possible each day, but coverage is uncertain. Highs will be above normal for all but Tuesday when they will be near normal. Lows will be near normal across the mountains and around 5 degrees above normal elsewhere. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR for now, but low stratus is expected to fill in over the next few hours and expand to all TAF sites besides KAVL, with MVFR cigs at the Upstate sites and KHKY, while KCLT is expected to drop to IFR by daybreak, being where the better moisture is located. Cigs should remain MVFR/IFR through the morning hours before gradually lifting to low-end VFR and scattering out by peak heating. Shower coverage still expected to grow in coverage through the morning hours, especially over KCLT as a weak tropical disturbance moves along the Georgia/Carolinas Coastal Plain through the period. Decided to place a prevailing -SHRA at KCLT 09Z through ~19Z to best capture the rainfall potential, but coverage will likely be off and on through this time frame. The other TAF sites will be too far west for good coverage in precip and will only receive sporadic showers, which allowed for a VCSH mention to remain in the prevailing lines through much of the daytime period. PROB30s for TSRA and associated restrictions have been placed at KCLT and KHKY during the afternoon hours as thunderstorm fuel will be highest at these terminals during that time. Any precip should end by 00Z Friday as the bulk of the precip shifts well east of the area. East-northeasterly winds are expected through much of the daytime period before toggling more west-northwesterly overnight tonight as the orientation of the tropical disturbance lifts northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. KAVL will maintain a northwesterly component through the morning and guidance continue to support a down-valley wind out of the south-southeast during the afternoon before returning to an up-valley northwesterly component sometime after sunset. Drier air will filter in overnight tonight and limit any potential for widespread vsby/cig restrictions, but can`t be totally ruled out, especially in locations that receive steadier rainfall. Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RWH NEAR TERM...CAC SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...CAC