683
FXUS62 KCAE 050834
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
434 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A return to a more active weather period has begun as
increasing deeper moisture moves inland from the Atlantic ahead
of an upper trough lifting northward. Scattered showers
continue overnight into Thursday with an isolated storm
remaining possible. A warmer and somewhat drier day is expected
Friday followed by more chances for strong storms over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
- Morning rain favoring the northern Midlands and Pee Dee
  region then afternoon showers eastern Midlands and diminishing
  tonight
- Below normal temperatures expected

Closed upper low has opened up and continues to lift
northeastward across the forecast area. Surface inverted trough
has shifted inland and will serve as the path of a weak surface
low that is expected to develop and lift northward through the
day. Scattered showers persist over the region early this
morning focused across the northern half of the forecast area
but then by afternoon there will be more subsidence over the
western part of the forecast area in the wake of the departing
upper trough and convection should favor the Pee Dee region and
eastern Midlands. Atmospheric moisture remains high today at or
above 1.7 inches but then decreases this evening from west to
east which should result in lowering pops this evening and
overnight.

Instability is limited today but cannot rule out some afternoon
thunderstorms but severe threat again remains very low. High
PWAT values and possible training of convection could lead to
possible isolated flooding threat. Temperatures expected to
remain below normal given extensive cloud cover and
precipitation. Tonight, generally dry conditions are expected
with the exception of some lingering showers in the eastern
Midlands early in the evening, but clouds should be diminishing
as drier air moves in aloft. However, this could set up the
potential for another round of stratus development tonight which
would limit radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- A few rounds of thunderstorms possible, with highest
  likelihood Saturday afternoon.

A series of shortwaves and associated MCS`s will move through a very
broad weak trough across the US Friday and Saturday. Downstream of
the trough, robust moisture and instability is expected both Friday
and Saturday over our area. Strong-severe thunderstorms are possible
both days, but the timing of the ingredients all line notably better
on Saturday.

For Friday, the diurnal timing of the primary shortwave and MCS
looks to be offset, with the remnants of the MCS`s and shortwave
aloft moving through overnight; some speed increase in the MCS is
likely, but not enough to overlap with sufficient instability.
However, plentiful moisture and instability still support a strong
thunderstorm threat. Some notable capping will linger and the
forcing is limited, so this will be convective temp driven as temps
climb into the low 90`s with dew points in the low 70`s. HREF
members are pretty consistent in scattered coverage Friday afternoon
with a 1500-2000 SB CAPE, 15-20 knots 0-6km shear, and 1.6" PWAT
airmass. So not a tremendous environment but sufficient and a
Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms continues for Friday.

For Saturday, the broad trough over the central US will sink
southeast leading to general height falls across our area. The next
wave in the series will develop an MCS, likely over TN-AL-MS, which
will then translate east within the strengthening 700-500mb flow
regime. Based on the current guidance, the timing of this wave is
more favorable diurnally for severe weather. There is good agreement
in the LREF to destabilize by Saturday afternoon with over 2000 SB
CAPE developing along with sufficient northwesterly cloud layer
shear to support organized convection. So the synoptic and
mesoscale environment are favorable but there is still some
uncertainty in exactly where this MCS will track, dependent on
where it develops upstream. But given the potential and
environment, a Slight Risk continues for severe weather on
Saturday, primarily for wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Additional strong thunderstorm activity possible Sunday and Monday
with active summer weather expected beyond for the rest of next
week.

The slow moving trough will shift further east on Sunday and Monday,
with associated shortwaves likely triggering some scattered-
widespread convection both days. Modest height falls are expected
into Sunday and persistent deep moisture will remain in place
despite Friday`s MCS passage, so instability will be more than
sufficient again Sunday; kinematics remain sufficient as well as the
shortwave digs with 50 knots of 500mb flow providing 30-40 knots of
cloud layer shear. So much like Saturday, the convective
development, propagation, and timing are difficult to pin down
but the synoptic and mesoscale environmental setup supports
strong- severe storms on Sunday. LREF guidance suggests a weak
front will push through with Sunday`s shortwave but strong
moisture advection will quickly drive PWAT`s back over 1.75" for
Monday. But instability recovery will be limited, and as such,
the strong thunderstorm threat is lessened compared to Saturday-
Sunday. Beyond Monday, the primary trough will occlude to our
north and we will remain under southwesterly flow with daily
thunderstorms and showers expected each day.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread IFR or lower conditions expected through midday
Thursday before conditions improve back to VFR. Possible
returning restrictions overnight but confidence is limited.

Upper trough will continue to lift northward through the region
today with a weak surface low moving across the eastern
Midlands keeping chances of rain in the forecast today focused
over the northern and eastern Midlands. Widespread IFR/MVFR
stratus in place over the region and will persist through around
15z with cigs below 1kft and intermittent MVFR/IFR vsbys in
showers. Light easterly winds around 5 to 7 knots should become
west to northwesterly after 15z as the weak low moves to our
east. Stratus clouds may return tonight but guidance is mixed
leading to low confidence.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the
area through much of the period, leading to potential early
morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$