088 FXUS62 KCAE 231033 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 633 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions, with dangerous heat index values, are expected during the next few days under the continued influence of a strong upper ridge. Rain chances increase mid to late week as ridging begins to break down. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Dry. Heat continues to build into the region with well above normal temperatures. Mostly clear skies persist through dawn under strong ridging aloft and surface high pressure. Temperatures will remain warm through the night with lows only reaching into the low to mid 70s. The center of the strong upper level ridge will shift over the Mid-Atlantic today. Temperatures rise as a result into the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices rising into the low triple digits and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. Overall atmospheric moisture remains around 90% of normal, or around 1.3" to 1.5". Surface high pressure just off the coast will also help to promote broad subsidence over the area which will limit convective chances (<10%), and CAMs essentially depict no showers or storms this afternoon. Skies remain mostly clear through the near term, with light south or southeasterly winds. Tonight, clear skies and light to near calm winds will return, and lows will only fall into the balmy mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Hot and humid with heat index values close to Heat Advisory criteria. - Rain chances increase on Wednesday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Strong upper ridging will be centered to our north on Tuesday and will likely begin to break down across the Southeastern US on Wednesday as a mid-level feature undercuts the ridge. This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday, and the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday. The combination of heat and humidity will allow heat index values to reach the 103 to 108 range, potentially slightly higher on Wednesday. These values place us close to our Heat Advisory criteria of 108 degrees for two or more hours. No heat products will be issued with this forecast package. Regardless of criteria being met, caution should be exercised while outdoors during peak heating. Rain chances have increased since yesterday, especially on Wednesday. Added Chance PoPs to the forecast on Wednesday during the afternoon and evening hours. It is interesting to note that some machine learning guidance shows an increased risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially towards the Upstate. The timing and coverage of this convective could also determine if Heat Advisory criteria will be made. Some of the hi-res guidance suggest convective development on Tuesday as well so added Slight Chance PoPs for Tuesday evening in the Pee Dee region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Message(s): - Upper ridging weakens through the period allowing for a more typical summertime pattern including daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The upper ridge should continue to weaken across the region late this week. This will allow temperatures to return to near seasonal values for late June with highs in the lower to mid 90s. A typical summer pattern becomes established with warm and humid conditions and daily chances for afternoon and evening convection. There will be a low to medium, 30 to 40 percent, chance of measurable precipitation each day. The severe threat appears low at this time, though summertime pulse thunderstorms always bring the risk of a few stronger thunderstorms bringing a strong wind risk. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Very localized restrictions at AGS/OGB through about 23/13z. Then VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. SKC this morning, though some upstream thin high cirrus to the northeast may move over the terminals over the next few hours. Winds are light and variable to calm. Some patchy fog has developed at the typical prone sites of AGS/OGB, but restrictions should ease as the sun comes up, generally between 23/12-23/14z. Surface winds remain variable much of this morning, then begin to favor a SLY/SELY direction around midday through the afternoon, remaining less than 10 kts. Mostly clear skies are expected through the end of the TAF period with only FEW cumulus and cirrus during the afternoon and into this evening before becoming SKC. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The remainder of this week looks to be on the drier side, though a slight increase in rain chances Wednesday and beyond may lead to very brief restrictions if the terminals are impacted. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$