039
FXUS62 KGSP 051044
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure system lifts northeastward along the Carolina
coast today keeping rain chances around. Brief drying returns
tonight into early Friday before a couple of cold fronts bring
unsettled weather back to the region this weekend into early the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday: Scattered showers continue to move across
the Piedmont zones. There are some pockets of steadier rainfall in
the CLT Metro. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with only
minor tweaks made based on current observations and latest model
trends.

Weak tropical disturbance currently moving north over the Georgia
Coastal Plain will work north and move along the Carolina Coastal
Plain through the daytime period. Scattered rainbands will traverse
across the area as a result, especially along and east of I-77 where
PWAT values rise close to 2.00" and being closer in vicinity to the
surface low. Outside of the CLT metro, QPF response is rather light
and total amounts through the afternoon likely remains under 0.25".
Localized heavier showers and embedded thunder will traverse over
the CLT Metro as better instability will be available to go along
with deeper saturated vertical profiles to support convectively-
driven, localized 0.50`-1.00+" amounts. Very warm and humid
conditions will continue as the tropical wave lifts north and a
deeper Atlantic Fetch filters in with almost due easterly component
through the daytime period and warm thicknesses staying put as the
upper ridge continues to lift to the north and east. Thicker cloud
cover will hang out along and east of I-77 in association with the
tropical disturbance and higher PoPs, while more scattering and
deeper mixing occurs in the NC mountains, northeast Georgia, and
western Upstate where temperatures will climb to near normal values,
while the NC foothills/Piedmont and eastern Upstate remain a
category or so below normal for afternoon highs.

The tropical disturbance will be in the midst of shifting offshore
the North Carolina Coast overnight tonight, leading to the CFWA
placed in the subsidence quadrant of the disturbance. Expect a
period of drier air filtering in across the area, while clouds try
to scatter and dewpoints lower. In this case, mostly dry conditions
with clouds hanging out overnight tonight, with lows dropping to
near-normal values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday: The coastal low moves away from the area
Friday as a cold front sags toward the area from the northwest.
After a dry start, convection develops in the moderately unstable
air mass. Highest PoP will be across the mountains, trailing off
south of I-85. Convection may organize across TN and move into the
mountains late in the day into the evening. With moderate shear,
some of this convection may survive leading to isolated severe
storms. Highs will be around 5 degrees above normal and lows around
10 degrees below normal. The air mass remains unstable across the
area Saturday as the front remains to our northwest. Effective shear
will be higher even though bulk shear will be a little lower. There
is also DCAPE and sfc delta theta-e to enhance severe potential.
Highest PoP remains across the mountains, but overall PoP is higher
across the area, with a mainly diurnal max, but showers could linger
through the night. Highs and lows around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday: Unsettled weather is expected through the
period. The cold front to the northwest moves into the area Sunday
then dissipates as another slowly moving cold front approaches from
the northwest. This front moves into the area Wednesday. With the
unstable air mass remaining in place, convection is expected each
day, with highest PoP Tuesday and Wednesday. Shear remains elevated
as well, so severe storms will be possible each day, but coverage is
uncertain. Highs will be above normal for all but Tuesday when they
will be near normal. Lows will be near normal across the mountains
and around 5 degrees above normal elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs/vsby has filled in
across the Piedmont terminals as low stratus and rainfall has moved
across the area. All TAF sites besides KAVL have an IFR/MVFR mention
through the morning hours before gradually lifting to low-end VFR
and scattering out by peak heating. Shower coverage will be rather
scattered through the morning hours, especially over KCLT as a weak
tropical disturbance moves along the Georgia/Carolinas Coastal Plain
through the period. Decided to place a prevailing -SHRA at KCLT
through ~18Z to best capture the rainfall potential, but coverage
will likely be off and on through this time frame. The other TAF
sites will be too far west for good coverage in precip and will only
receive sporadic showers, which allowed for a VCSH mention to remain
in the prevailing lines through much of the daytime period, with a
TEMPO for SHRA and associated restrictions. PROB30s for TSRA and
associated restrictions have been placed at KCLT and KHKY during the
afternoon hours as thunderstorm fuel will be highest at these
terminals during that time. Any precip should end by 00Z Friday as
the bulk of the precip shifts well east of the area. East to
northeasterly winds are expected through much of the daytime period
before toggling more west-northwesterly overnight tonight as the
orientation of the tropical disturbance lifts northeast towards the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. KAVL will maintain a northwesterly component
through the morning and guidance continue to support a down-valley
wind out of the south-southeast during the afternoon before
returning to an up-valley northwesterly component sometime after
sunset. Drier air will filter in overnight tonight and limit any
potential for widespread vsby/cig restrictions, but can`t be totally
ruled out, especially in locations that receive steadier rainfall.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC