267
FXUS62 KGSP 170718
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure lingers over the area through the weekend with
temperatures steadily warming each day. A cold front will approach
from the west on Monday and could bring some showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday: Quiet through the near-term with surface
high pressure in control. NW flow aloft will dominate, though
towards the end of the period thicknesses will start to increase as
ridge axis to our west shifts this way. High pressure will slide
offshore, but flow will be anemic at least through the near-term
around the western periphery of the surface ridge, so expect only
modest recovery in temperatures today resulting in just about as
close to seasonal normals as one can get. An upper jet streak will
pass through the NW flow aloft with a little bit of moisture/DPVA
associated with it, not really that much, but enough to bring some
mid to high-level cloudiness across the area this afternoon and
evening. Some CAMs want to bring pops to the area, but with
dewpoints still fairly dry, thinking anything that falls out of the
mid-level deck would just be virga. Could not rule out a few
sprinkles here and there but not really enough to be mentionable in
the forecast. This along with the surface flow swinging around to
the south will help keep RHs above critical levels today, and
without the wind gusts that should help as well.

Increasing moisture around the surface high will along with
lingering high cloudiness will keep overnight lows tonight several
degrees warmer than what we`ll see this morning, but again really
close to seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM EDT Thursday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Friday with broad upper ridging building across the eastern CONUS
while broad upper trofing amplifies over the west. We will remain
under the upper ridge thru the short-term period and into the ex-
tended period. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be sliding off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the period begins early Friday. This will
allow for strengthening return flow across the Southeast. This pattern
will linger thru the period and should keep us mostly dry with warming
temperatures. We will likely see more low-end wind gusts during the
afternoon and evening on both Friday and Saturday, but minimum RH
values should be a bit higher than the previous few days. As such,
fire danger concerns should be lower across the area. Otherwise,
temperatures will warm thru the period with highs in the low to
mid 80s each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3:05 AM EDT Thursday: The extended fcst picks up at 12z on
Sunday with southern stream upper trofing to our west lifting up
and over upper ridging that is still in place over the Southeast.
Over the next couple of days, the upper trof will morph into a
closed low as it moves over the Great Lakes and then deamplify
as it moves further east and over New England. This will suppress
the upper ridge over our area, yet we will remain under flattened
upper ridging for the rest of the period. At the sfc, broad high
pressure will be in place off the Atlantic Coast allowing for warm,
SLY return flow across our area. On Sunday, another low will quickly
spin up over the southern Plains and lift towards the Great Lakes.
This system will move another cold front to our area by late Sunday/
early Monday. More of the long-range guidance now has the front moving
thru our area later on Monday. However, it remains unclear whether or
not the front will stall out over our area on Tues. Some of the gui-
dance pushes it offshore with drying high pressure moving in behind
it, while other guidance keeps what`s left of the frontal bndy over
our area with far less drying. Overall, it`s still looking like we
should be mostly dry thru Sunday with diurnal solid chance PoPs each
day for the rest of the period. Based on the larger-scale pattern,
there will likely be some amount of instability across our area each
day, so isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible.
Temperatures will remain above climatology thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period. NNW winds to start
the period will diminish, briefly lgt/vrb before veering around E to
SE by later this morning (current timing is 16z at KCLT). Direction
will continue on around the dial toward S (except for KAVL remaining
SE down-valley), though more lgt/vrb again with high pressure in
control overnight. Wind speeds at best 5-10kt this afternoon with
mixing. High to mid-level cloudiness will increase this afternoon
and evening especially across NC sites but no restrictions expected.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions will continue into the weekend.
The next chance of rain and associated restrictions won`t be until
early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP