945 FXUS62 KGSP 050606 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 206 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A surface low pressure system lifts northeastward along the Carolina coast through Thursday keeping rain chances around. Brief drying returns Thursday afternoon into early Friday before a cold front brings unsettled weather back to the region this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 205 AM EDT Thursday: A band of showers moving in to the southeast zones of the CFWA and should lift across portions of the Piedmont over the next few hours. Lower clouds gradually moving into the area as dewpoint depressions tighten and moisture continues to increase. The forecast remains on track outside of a few tweaks made to the most weather elements based on current observations and latest model trends. Otherwise, a weak upper low currently centered over the Florida Panhandle is expected to wobble N/NE and fill overnight, with sfc wave development expected to continue across the Carolina coastal plain. As the sfc wave strengthens, showers and embedded storms are expected to develop across the SC Midlands and coastal plain and pivot north into our eastern zones after midnight, with likely PoPs warranted over those areas by daybreak. With precipitable water values fcst to increase to 1.5 to 2", the potential for locally heavy rainfall will increase, especially where the precip shield pivots within the deformation zone, where up to 2" could fall over localized areas. Otherwise, basin average rainfall is expected to be roughly in the 0.5 to 1.0" range thru Thursday morning. The more widespread showers will shift steadily east of our CWA late Thursday morning as the sfc wave moves into eastern NC allowing low-lvl flow to turn more NLY/NELY thru a deeper layer. This will help shunt the deeper moisture to our east while the NLY/NELY flow will support re- latively cool and stable conditions across much of the area. This should limit the potential for diurnal deep convection, with only slight chance to chance PoPs warranted across much of our CWA during the afternoon. However, sct convection is possible around the western and eastern periphery of our CWA where some modest destabilization is possible, especially across the Smokies and vicinity. Highs are expec-ted to be below normal across most of our area on Thursday, with our SW zones just below normal and our eastern zones roughly 6 to 10 deg below normal under thicker cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Brief Drying Returns Thursday Evening into Early Friday 2) Unsettled Weather Returns by Friday Afternoon and Lingers into Saturday 3) Strong to Severe Storms are Possible Each Afternoon and Evening on Friday and Saturday A sfc low pressure system will continue lifting northeast across the Carolina coast through Friday before pulling away from the region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will creep southeastward out of the Midwest through the period. Brief drying will develop Thursday evening into early Friday as the sfc low pulls away from the western Carolinas but unsettled weather will return by Friday afternoon and will linger into Saturday ahead of the front. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon/evening with the possibility of a few storms becoming strong to severe as instability and wind shear increase ahead of the front. The RAP/NAMNest/ECMWF show generally 1,000-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE with 20- 30 kts of deep layer shear in place during peak heating on Friday. However, the severe threat looks better on Saturday with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear, 1,500-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE (per the global models) and higher coverage of convection. The main hazards with any severe storms that develop each day will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Temperatures will remain above normal through the short term period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Unsettled Weather Lingers through the Middle of Next Week 2) Strong to Severe Storms Remain Possible Each Afternoon and Evening 3) Above Normal High Temps Continue into Monday before Below Normal High Temps Return Tuesday into Wednesday A cold front will track towards the forecast area on Sunday before pushing across the area Sunday night into early Monday. A second cold front will approach out of the west on Tuesday before tracking across the forecast area early Wednesday. These two frontal systems will act to keep unsettled weather around through the long term period. The strong to severe storm threat will continue each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as deep layer shear and instability remain elevated ahead of each frontal boundary. Low temps will remain a few to several degrees above normal each night through the period. High temps will remain a few degrees above normal through Monday, becoming near normal to a few degrees below normal Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR for now, but low stratus is expected to fill in over the next few hours and expand to all TAF sites besides KAVL, with MVFR cigs at the Upstate sites and KHKY, while KCLT is expected to drop to IFR by daybreak, being where the better moisture is located. Cigs should remain MVFR/IFR through the morning hours before gradually lifting to low-end VFR and scattering out by peak heating. Shower coverage still expected to grow in coverage through the morning hours, especially over KCLT as a weak tropical disturbance moves along the Georgia/Carolinas Coastal Plain through the period. Decided to place a prevailing -SHRA at KCLT 09Z through ~19Z to best capture the rainfall potential, but coverage will likely be off and on through this time frame. The other TAF sites will be too far west for good coverage in precip and will only receive sporadic showers, which allowed for a VCSH mention to remain in the prevailing lines through much of the daytime period. PROB30s for TSRA and associated restrictions have been placed at KCLT and KHKY during the afternoon hours as thunderstorm fuel will be highest at these terminals during that time. Any precip should end by 00Z Friday as the bulk of the precip shifts well east of the area. East-northeasterly winds are expected through much of the daytime period before toggling more west-northwesterly overnight tonight as the orientation of the tropical disturbance lifts northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. KAVL will maintain a northwesterly component through the morning and guidance continue to support a down-valley wind out of the south-southeast during the afternoon before returning to an up-valley northwesterly component sometime after sunset. Drier air will filter in overnight tonight and limit any potential for widespread vsby/cig restrictions, but can`t be totally ruled out, especially in locations that receive steadier rainfall. Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CAC