345 FXUS62 KCAE 170638 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper ridging will be in control of our weather through Saturday, leading to a prolonged dry period with steadily warming temperatures. Rain chances increase early next week as an upper trough approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - High pressure and calm weather expected. Deep ridging just to our west will keep the region under northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure throughout the day. Clear skies and light winds are therefore expected into the evening before the surface high pressure will shift offshore. High temps will push a bit above average, topping out in the mid-upper 70`s. This will allow southerly component flow to develop by late this evening and start to slowly increase moisture into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Upper ridging in control of our weather through the short term while high pressure sits to our east. - Above normal temperatures likely, especially on Saturday. Upper ridge axis will still be to our west at the start of the short term, shifting into the Southeastern US on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will be anchored to our east producing southerly flow through much of the period. This will result in increasing temperatures and moisture, though the area will remain dry. Above normal temperatures are likely on both Friday and Saturday, with forecast highs on Friday in the lower to mid 80s under sunny to mostly sunny skies. With more moisture around, there could be some low cloud and/or fog development Friday Night with any low clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Temperatures will likely be well above normal on Saturday but not to record levels. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Continued warm and dry on Sunday despite increased cloudiness. - Chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. - Near to above normal temperatures likely through the extended. Upper ridge gets pushed to the south and east on Sunday in response to a trough over the Central CONUS. The trough passes to our north on Monday followed by zonal flow or weak ridging aloft to close out the extended. Meanwhile, high pressure to our east should keep the FA dry through Sunday Night. Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the storm system early next week. A cold front is expected to approach from the west on Monday, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening, especially in the western CWA. Beyond Monday, the front may stall somewhere across the region resulting in shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the extended. Temperatures remain near to above normal despite the increased cloudiness, though confidence in the pattern decreases next week and conditions will be dependent on the placement of the stalled boundary. Overall severe threat during the long term appears low at this time. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High pressure will remain in place today with little in the way of sensible weather impacts. Some typical morning MIFG AGS issues are possible this morning, but will resolve by 11-12z. Otherwise, light winds out of the east expected this morning and afternoon before turning southeasterly this afternoon-evening. Clear skies expected through the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some patchy fog possible Friday morning and more so on Saturday morning as moisture starts to slowly increase but confidence in this is low at the moment. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$