992 FXUS62 KCAE 101030 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 630 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... More isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon and into this evening where a strong storm cannot be ruled out.The region will then begin to transition to a more summerlike pattern, with less organized and more typical pulse convection through the remainder of the week and into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - More scattered convection possible this afternoon and into this evening. - A couple strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. Early this morning, training convection moved over areas along and south of I-20 as strong convergence along a LLJ has occurred and PWAT`s sit near 1.9" across the area. This has brought periods of heavy rainfall toward a line from Burke County into Orangeburg County but this line is now moving toward the Coastal Plain as a upper shortwave moves in. Isolated rain showers may linger into the morning, especially in the southern FA, but most of the FA likely sees some dry time before another shortwave rounding the base of the deep upper trough over the northern Great Lakes region brings more scattered convection during the afternoon, lasting into the evening as a slow moving front nears the area before stalling out in the CWA into Wednesday morning. Overall, the greater coverage of storms during the afternoon looks to be in the eastern Midlands and into the CSRA as PWAT`s remain near 1.7-1.8" and near 30kts of southwesterly flow is expected at 850 mb. This moist southwesterly flow aids in temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s and HREF mean MUCAPE reaching just above 1000 J/kg, likely limited some due to expected cloud cover. Deep layer shear also appears to generally be lacking and thus organized convection during the afternoon is not expected with storms being more "pulsey", bringing the main hazards of potential damaging winds and heavy rainfall in any strong to marginally severe storm. There maybe a greater shot at some more organized convection across the northern Midlands and into the central Midlands after 21-23z as the weak front nears before the atmosphere starts to stabilize, allowing a potential broken line of storm clusters to move into the FA. The 00z CAMs and HREF members tend to show this possibility with the WRF models being the most aggressive in showing a convective line with decent outflow pushing in north of the Columbia Metro between 23-02z. Confidence in this outcome is not particularly high at the moment due to recent HRRR runs (which handled Monday evenings convection pretty well) and a couple other models only showing isolated showers/storms during this time frame. This will be worth keeping an eye on as any more organized line could bring another bout of damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Due to the expected convective activity, most of the CWA is in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather, which seems reasonable with the more conditional threat. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Scattered afternoon convection possible. A return to more typical Summerlike conditions is expected on Wednesday. Upper trough moves out of the area and will be replaced by a building upper ridge across the region. At the surface, a weak surface front will be stalled across the forecast area. Meanwhile, high pressure off the coast will keep a good amount of low-level moisture moving inland east of the front. The main convection is expected during the afternoon/evening hours, primarily across the eastern counties as the sea-breeze moves inland towards the stalled front. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80, with heat index readings in the lower to middle 90s. It will be hot and sticky outside for sure. Any convection along the sea-breeze should weaken and dissipate after sunset. Overnight temperatures drop down into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message(s): -Typical summertime afternoon thunderstorms continues but the severe threat remains low. The upper ridge remains across the region through the weekend. Most guidance tends to suggest that showers and thunderstorms will be primarily diurnally driven and the region will remain in a summerlike pattern. With a good amount of moisture still available, any sort of forcing mechanism will trigger showers and thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures stay close to normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Couple showers lingering near AGS/DNL but VFR conditions are seen at all sites and are expected to continue outside of possible restrictions associated with convection this afternoon/evening. Rain has gradually come to end at all TAF sites with just some lingering showers near AGS/DNL. BKN to OVC high clouds are moving through the region with much of the upstate of SC and into GA seeing widespread stratus and IFR ceilings with the high moisture in the region. As the TAF sites have remained nearly overcast aloft and winds have remained elevated, this stratus has struggled to form outside of FEW to SCT clouds around 500 to 800 ft. Due to this I expect these scattered low clouds to continue until 14-15z where a period of them becoming BKN cannot be ruled out mainly for CAE/CUB, but at this time, VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. Cumulus then develop during the afternoon today with winds out of the southwest at 7-12 kts with some possible gusts toward 20 kts. Model guidance still suggests after 18-21z isolated to scattered showers/storms may develop but confidence in any one TAF site seeing this remains low and thus I have maintained the PROB30 group at all TAF sites for storms and associated restrictions. Any shower/storm activity likely wraps this evening with winds becoming light and variable overnight and continuing BKN to OVC high clouds. Some more SCT low clouds will be possible toward the end of the period but confidence in any restrictions is low. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief flight restrictions are possible each day with typical summertime thunderstorms throughout the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$