490 FXUS62 KCAE 110956 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 556 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and thunderstorm chances continue today as the a system moves through the region. Near to below normal temperatures expected through the weekend. An extended period of dry conditions follows the rain today, although a rogue shower cannot be ruled out for the eastern Midlands. Temperatures warm up for Monday and Tuesday before a dry cold front ushers in another shot of cooler air for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon, mainly north of the I20/I26 corridor. Water vapor imagery indicates that the shortwave trough that forced our convection last evening continues to shift eastward. Clouds remain in place across the forecast area and are expected to remain in place through day break. Sunshine is expected to break through the clouds by mid morning, helping to set up our shower/storm chances this afternoon. The mid and upper level low are forecast to be setup over much of the southeast, keeping mid-level lapse rates fairly steep across the area. With temperatures rising up into the low 70s by early afternoon, some surface based instability is forecast to develop. The departing surface low is forecast to push a secondary front through the area gradually, with the best convergence and forcing likely to be along and north of I20/I26 this evening. So showers and some thunderstorms are most likely in this area. Given the steep lapse rates, wouldn`t be surprised to see some small hail in the stronger storms this afternoon. The 0C isotherm is around 7kft, with the -20C isotherm around 18 kft, further supporting some small hail potential this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected given the weak shear in place under the upper low. Rain showers should clear out after sunset, with the front pushing south and east of the area. Cold and dry air advection is forecast to quickly overtake the region, with lows falling into the mid 40s for most. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Below normal temperatures for the weekend. - Low end (less than 15 percent) chance of a passing shower or two Saturday afternoon in the Eastern Midlands. Saturday and Saturday Night: An upper low is expected to be centered over the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning with the axis of its associated trough along the coastline. At the surface, a coastal low is forecast to be centered off the Delmarva coast with a cold front extending southward just off the Southeastern coast. Expect the upper trough to continue trekking eastward while the surface low remains relatively stationary. However, the associated front is expected to push further off shore. Some wrap around moisture from the surface low could spark an isolated shower or two for the eastern Midlands, but chances continue to decrease due to the location of the low and associated front. The GEFS and ECMWF ensemble both indicate roughly a 10-20% chance for the eastern Midlands, while the HREF maxes out around 10% in some spots for Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be roughly 5-10 degrees below normal in the afternoon. Sunday and Sunday Night: The upper trough and associated surface front continue moving eastward, which is expected to be replaced by upper ridging and high pressure. This combination brings dry conditions and the start of a warming trend. While afternoon highs are forecast to be somewhat below average, they are expected to be a few degrees warmer than Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - An extended period of dry conditions expected. - Above normal temperatures expected early next week. The upper ridge is forecast to flatten out some to begin the week as a trough moves into the region. Despite the flattening, temperatures are forecast to be above average to begin the week with dry air in place. A cold front is then forecast to move toward and through the area most likely on Tuesday. There remains some timing differences among guidance with this front, however. Regardless of the timing of the front, it is forecast to be a dry front due to the low PWATs as they are anticipated to be an inch or less as the front moves through. Temperatures drop again after this front for midweek, but start to rebound some as an upper ridge is anticipated to filter over the area. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected through tonight, with some MVFR cigs hanging around this morning. Well, the stratus that seemed unlikely a few hours ago did end up developing. All sites other than AGS currently have some extent of ceiling restriction. This is likely to continue through mid morning as the stratus slowly works its way through. The rest of the forecast is on track, with gusty westerly flow expected throughout the day today ahead of a secondary front. Added VCSH to CAE/CUB to account for the development of showers this evening along said front. Generally, this rain is expected to remain north of the Augusta and Orangeburg terminals. Tonight, dry air should filter in across the TAF sites and result in a clearing of the clouds from the area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air returns to the region for the weekend into next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...