334 FXUS62 KILM 170639 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift offshore later today with temperatures below normal followed by significant warming for the weekend. Rain chances increase Monday night or Tuesday ahead of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Quiet weather continues through tonight as mid level ridge builds over the Southeast and surface high pressure moves overhead today and offshore tonight. After a cool morning, temps will warm to near normal today with high temps in the mid to upper 70s which will kick off a cool sea breeze this afternoon. Deep mixing will bring dewpoints in the low 30s and RH values ~25% away from the coast. Some PVA will move across the Carolinas this evening, but the only sensible weather we`ll see from it is a few more high clouds. WAA tonight around offshore high will help keep lows near normal in the low 50s, though another night of great radiational cooling conditions may bring some traditional cold spots into the mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface high off the coast Fri morning shifts to the more typical Bermuda High location during the day, as ridging at 5h expands over the Southeast. This combination persists through Sat, although the 5h ridge axis does slip offshore Sat afternoon. The result is a warm and dry end to the week. Strong warm advection and subsidence will push temperatures above to well above normal and keep skies clear other than occasional patches of high cloud. Sea breeze each afternoon will moderate highs near the coast but the more south to southwest wind direction will result in a non-traditional sea breeze with the coolest temps along the NC coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Combination of Bermuda High and 5h ridge axis offshore Sun and Mon keeps temperatures well above normal and the region dry through the end of the weekend. Still some uncertainty on Mon with respect to rain chances. The influence of the 5h ridge does weaken, with the axis shifting farther east as the ridge is suppressed. However, the incoming cold front is weakly forced and in the process of slowing down as the parent low, moving into the Great Lakes, slows down. Still think Tue will be the day when rain chances increase. The influence of the ridge is all but gone in forecast soundings, precipitable water surges to around 1.5" early Tue and CAPE increases to nearly 1000 J/kg Tue afternoon. Rain chances may continue into Wed with the front lingering in the area. Hard to say exactly where the front will stall, but the lack of a strong push of cool, dry air behind the front and the boundary laying parallel to the steering flow suggests Wed could be another day with elevated rain chances. Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week despite increased cloud cover and increasing rain potential during the second half of the long term. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence VFR through 06Z TAF period. Clear skies outside of a few high clouds through morning and again this evening. Light winds prevail through TAF period, with exception of 5-10 kt SE sea breeze at coastal terminals beginning 16-17z. Extended Outlook...Chance of patchy fog early Friday morning. High confidence in VFR daytime Friday through the weekend. Increasing rain chances could bring restrictions Monday. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... Benign marine conditions continue as surface high pressure moves across the area today and offshore tonight. Light and variable winds this morning will turn southeasterly this afternoon with sea breeze push as inland temps warm well into the 70s. Winds remain light out of the southeast into tonight. Seas 1-2 feet, combo of weak wind wave and 1 ft SE swell. Friday through Monday... Bermuda High in place through Mon will maintain south to southwest flow over the waters. Not much change to the gradient, even on Mon as a weak front approaches from the northwest. Speeds will generally be in the 10-15 kt range. Diurnal sea breeze development each afternoon will enhance onshore flow each day with winds occasionally exceeding 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less Fri build to 2-3 ft Sat-Mon as the prolonged southerly flow helps build seas. The southerly wind wave will become dominant as early as Fri night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...VAO MARINE...III/VAO