888
FXUS62 KCHS 092353
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
753 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple upper level disturbances will impact the region this
week, with a cold front approaching the region mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
This evening into tonight: An upper trough and stacked low over
the northern Great Lakes region will begin to lift as it moves
toward the Northeast. Meanwhile at the sfc, its attendant cold
front will nudge eastward into the Appalachians. Ongoing
convection over southeast Georgia will push northeast this
evening, as a few airmass showers/storms develop inland and
across southeast SC. Model soundings and analysis show a rebound
in SBCAPE (after this mornings convection), with steep llvl
lapse rates, and around 25 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. MLCAPE and
mid level lapse rates took a hit with the morning activity,
nonetheless a few thunderstorms could still become strong to
severe, which could produce damaging winds and/or brief heavy
downpours. The severe threat should come to an end with the
late afternoon/evening convection as we lose diurnal heating
after sunset.

Attention then turns to the possibility of upstream convection
arriving from the west. This upstream convection appears to be
driven by remnant outflow or an MCV tracking eastward across the
Deep South. Shortwave activity swinging around the base of the
trough is progged to reach the western fringes of the forecast
area later this evening into tonight. Despite moving beyond
diurnal heating, the presence of this MCV as well as upper
forcing should be enough to keep at least scattered convection
going across inland areas into the early morning hours. However,
models have been consistently indicating a weakening trend on
its approach, perhaps even fizzling out before reaching the
coast. POPs have been adjusted to taper off from west to east
during the overnight period. In terms of temperatures,
convection will make it tricky but should drop into the low 70s
(mid 70s at the beaches) with a few spots inland dipping into
the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level trough will remain positioned over the eastern CONUS on
Tuesday, transitioning to a quasi-zonal flow into Thursday. At the
surface a weak cold front will approach the region Wednesday,
lingering in the vicinity of the southeastern coastline on Thursday.
A typical summertime pattern is forecast through Thursday, with
shower and thunderstorm coverage greatest in the afternoon hours.
While the environment could support a strong thunderstorm each
afternoon, conditions across the region on Tuesday look most
favorable for a severe storm given the broad troughing aloft.
Forecast soundings depict ML CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg along
with DCAPE values upwards of 800 J/kg. This environment could
support damaging wind gusts. Daytime temperatures through the period
are forecast to remain near normal, generally in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Overnight lows, however, are forecast to be several degrees
above normal, only dipping into the upper 60s inland and low to mid
70s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday and through the weekend the region will remain positioned
between two upper level features, high pressure extending across the
far western Atlantic and a mid-level trough over ArkLaTex. Several
disturbances will traverse the southern periphery of the mid-level
trough through the weekend, yielding daily rain chances across the
region. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will be diurnally
driven, peaking in coverage and strength in the afternoon hours.
However, it is possible some storms could linger into the nighttime.
Temperatures through the period will remain steady, with highs in
the low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Heat Index
values Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend could
approach 100-103, especially along the coastal counties.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10.00Z TAFs - Currently VFR across region with our last couple
showers moving north into northeastern South Carolina, and skies
begin to clear across southeastern Georgia.  Winds remain on the
lighter side overnight, with the next aviation concern being
potential for additional showers/storms moving down from central
Georgia after midnight. Currently have that activity remaining well
north of the TAF sites, though it can`t be ruled out across our
inland counties. Similar to the past couple days, another round of
diurnally driven scattered showers and storms are expected as
tomorrow afternoon, but have kept mention limited to vicinity
showers given spatial uncertainties.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms could bring temporary flight restrictions through the
week, mainly in the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Southwesterly winds will prevail tonight with Bermuda high
pressure offshore. Winds will remain elevated as a cold front
approaches well inland from the northwest, keeping the pressure
gradient pinched. Occasional to frequent 25 knot gusts are
expected for the Charleston County nearshore waters through
most of the overnight, thus the Small Craft Advisory continues
until just before daybreak Tuesday. Seas should average 2-4
feet, except up to 5 feet at times in the Charleston County
nearshore waters and the far out portion of the outer GA waters.
Marine should stay alert for inland thunderstorms moving into
the coastal waters this evening and tonight bringing the
potential for strong wind gusts.

Tuesday through Friday: Tuesday will feature southwesterly winds,
generally around 10 to 15 knots, however across the Charleston
County nearshore waters gusts up to around 23 knots will be
possible. While there will likely be slightly higher wind gusts
along the coastline each afternoon associated with the sea breeze,
conditions will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 9:
KCHS: 77/1978
KSAV: 77/1877

June 11:
KCHS: 76/2020
KSAV: 76/2010

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BRS
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...APT/CPM
MARINE...BRS/CPM